PECOTA projects the Braves win 82 games, finish fourth in NL East

[UNCBlue012]

Obviously, this is silly, but their source of concern is the Braves rotation. Thoughts?

https://www.baseballprospectus.com/standings/

[MadduxFanII]

PECOTA seems to think the Mets are a total juggernaut.

[msstate7]

5.4% chance of winning division. This model should be scrapped

[bravesfanMatt]

How was their predictions last couple of years. Across the league. Should give you an idea of their worth.

That said we have some risk. Soroka is unknown. Fried might regress. Morton is old and could crash. Drew who knows.

Then you are going to have offensive regression across the lineup.

I would take the over on that of course but there are several scenarios where we could get there.

[The Chosen One]

Death knell already given before the season even started. RIP.

[mfree80]

Isn’t that about where they picked us last year too?

[Skeeter31]

Past 3 years they’ve had us no better than 3rd and no more than 82-83 wins.

[Carp]

Obviously, this is silly, but their source of concern is the Braves rotation. Thoughts?

https://www.baseballprospectus.com/standings/

The rotation that rolled through the regular season and playoffs in 2020 and will be adding Soroka, Morton, and Smyly......


Did they even try here?

[msstate7]

Past 3 years they’ve had us no better than 3rd and no more than 82-83 wins.

Nice to know. Obviously someone feeding in info has the red *ss with the braves

[Dalyn]

Funny thing is, we would still make the expanded playoffs.

[Enscheff]

BP hasn't been worth reading, much less paying to read, for years. Even the fools at TC know this: "In 2018, Atlanta cleared their BP’s projection by 14 wins. In 2019 they were +12. The Braves were five wins better in the shortened 2020 season." Those are massive misses by a projection system.

FG has the Braves projected 1-2 wins behind the Mets: https://www.fangraphs.com/depthchart...=ALL&teamid=16

A quick scan of the depth projections per position shows an alarming lack of decent options behind the everyday guy at almost every single position. When Johan Camargo is the highest projected non-starter...that's a problem. That is certainly not the "no scrubs" approach employed by teams like the Rays and Dodgers, and I fully expect AA to add MLB-quality depth to the roster at several positions before the season starts.

[Skeeter31]

Funny thing is, we would still make the expanded playoffs.

As of now, no expanded playoffs. That was one of the proposals not agreed to yesterday. 7 inning double headers and runner on second to start extra innings are a go for 2021, but expanded playoffs and NL DH were not agreed to

[Freshmaker]

Man I was looking forward to this season too. Oh well, see you guys in ‘22

[CyYoung31]

BP hasn't been worth reading, much less paying to read, for years. Even the fools at TC know this: "In 2018, Atlanta cleared their BP’s projection by 14 wins. In 2019 they were +12. The Braves were five wins better in the shortened 2020 season." Those are massive misses by a projection system.

FG has the Braves projected 1-2 wins behind the Mets: https://www.fangraphs.com/depthchart...=ALL&teamid=16

A quick scan of the depth projections per position shows an alarming lack of decent options behind the everyday guy at almost every single position. When Johan Camargo is the highest projected non-starter...that's a problem. That is certainly not the "no scrubs" approach employed by teams like the Rays and Dodgers, and I fully expect AA to add MLB-quality depth to the roster at several positions before the season starts.

Do the Mets have a ton of depth? I know the Nationals and Phillies don’t.

[tululush]

Do the Mets have a ton of depth? I know the Nationals and Phillies don’t.

The Mets have the Mets doctors.

[Super]

A quick scan of the depth projections per position shows an alarming lack of decent options behind the everyday guy at almost every single position. When Johan Camargo is the highest projected non-starter...that's a problem. That is certainly not the "no scrubs" approach employed by teams like the Rays and Dodgers, and I fully expect AA to add MLB-quality depth to the roster at several positions before the season starts.

really feel like the money being used on Camargo could be better spent elsewhere.
also need young guys to come in and contribute. Rays had guys like Wendle, Brosseau, Diaz, Arozarena come in and play super well.

[bravesfanMatt]

Every year AA has relied on the still good farm to use as depth. I am not seeing much there now. Maybe some that were at alternate site last year would be available. It just doesn’t sound like AA is going to add much except maybe a RP.

[thewupk]

[nsacpi]

Death knell already given before the season even started. RIP.

maybe we get one of the wild cards

[nsacpi]

We are going to have an enormous amount of quality depth in AAA. That counts for something.