Obviously, this is silly, but their source of concern is the Braves rotation. Thoughts?
https://www.baseballprospectus.com/standings/
Obviously, this is silly, but their source of concern is the Braves rotation. Thoughts?
https://www.baseballprospectus.com/standings/
PECOTA seems to think the Mets are a total juggernaut.
5.4% chance of winning division. This model should be scrapped
How was their predictions last couple of years. Across the league. Should give you an idea of their worth.
That said we have some risk. Soroka is unknown. Fried might regress. Morton is old and could crash. Drew who knows.
Then you are going to have offensive regression across the lineup.
I would take the over on that of course but there are several scenarios where we could get there.
Coppy
Death knell already given before the season even started. RIP.
Forever Fredi
jpx7 (02-09-2021), NYCBrave (02-09-2021), UNCBlue012 (02-09-2021)
Isn’t that about where they picked us last year too?
Past 3 years they’ve had us no better than 3rd and no more than 82-83 wins.
Funny thing is, we would still make the expanded playoffs.
BP hasn't been worth reading, much less paying to read, for years. Even the fools at TC know this: "In 2018, Atlanta cleared their BP’s projection by 14 wins. In 2019 they were +12. The Braves were five wins better in the shortened 2020 season." Those are massive misses by a projection system.
FG has the Braves projected 1-2 wins behind the Mets: https://www.fangraphs.com/depthchart...=ALL&teamid=16
A quick scan of the depth projections per position shows an alarming lack of decent options behind the everyday guy at almost every single position. When Johan Camargo is the highest projected non-starter...that's a problem. That is certainly not the "no scrubs" approach employed by teams like the Rays and Dodgers, and I fully expect AA to add MLB-quality depth to the roster at several positions before the season starts.
Last edited by Enscheff; 02-09-2021 at 12:16 PM.
Carp (02-09-2021), clvclv (02-09-2021), jpx7 (02-09-2021), UNCBlue012 (02-09-2021)
FreemanFan (02-11-2021)
Man I was looking forward to this season too. Oh well, see you guys in ‘22
jpx7 (02-10-2021), UNCBlue012 (02-09-2021)
jpx7 (02-10-2021)
thewupk (02-09-2021)
"Well, you’ll learn soon enough that this was a massive red wave landslide." - thethe on the 2020 election that trump lost bigly
“I can’t fix my life, but I can fix the world.” - sturg
jpx7 (02-10-2021)
Every year AA has relied on the still good farm to use as depth. I am not seeing much there now. Maybe some that were at alternate site last year would be available. It just doesn’t sound like AA is going to add much except maybe a RP.
Coppy
cajunrevenge (02-13-2021), jpx7 (02-10-2021), mossy (02-10-2021), Tapate50 (02-09-2021)
We are going to have an enormous amount of quality depth in AAA. That counts for something.
"I am a victim, I will tell you. I am a victim."
"I am your retribution."
jpx7 (02-10-2021)