Since coming back from an IL stint Bumgarner now has 5 straight starts where he only failed to go 7 innings once (6.2 IP).
Acting like he is on this massive decline is some kind of take....
Natural Immunity Croc
He's owed 3/60m.
You also said you didn't think the D-Backs should pay half his salary. That's part of the reason why there was push back.
you've hedged.
I would still rather give single year deals to vets in this price range than commit to Bumgarner for three seasons at that number.
jpx7 (08-24-2021)
When I said that it was because I thought the contract was straighlined. Since learning it wasn't then I changed my stance. I'd still take him at 100% of his value as long as the D-Backs gave us one of their best prospects. I personally think Bumgarner has at least 6 WAR the next 3 seasons. Hold me to that claim.
Natural Immunity Croc
I don't think so. I just don't see the risk/reward of Bumgardner making sense.
Maybe he's a 2 WAR pitcher. Maybe. But he's got a ton of miles on a mid 30s arm. More likely looking at a 3-4 WAR over the 3 year contract.
If Liberty were not artifically capping the salary, then maybe you get him. Maybe he's a playoff arm. But if we have the payrolls we are likely to have, I'm not putting 10+ million in Bumgardner. I'd rather use that money to upgrade my studs. I'd want to get our top 3 starters that will pitch in playoff series upgraded. Or impact bats.
I don't see the 4th or 5th starters being the thing that keeps the Braves from winning playoff series. We seem to be able to find a way. We keep drafting college pitchers. We seem to find a 1 year vet every year.
I don't see any reason to add a 3 year commitment to anyone who isn't a massive upgrade.
Natural Immunity Croc
Also the guy that regularly had 200 IP seasons was a top rotation guy and he hasn't been that in years.
The middle to backend guy has done it once and isn't likely to do it again.
Whether you think he's worth it or not doesn't really matter. AA isn't going to be getting any vet pitcher like Mad Bum for multiple years.
2018: We signed Sanchez
2019: We signed Keuchel
2020: We signed Hamels
2021: We signed Morton and Smyly
All 1 year deals. All have done fairly well besides Hamels. The other notable SP acquisition was Gausman but he was a pre-FA vet with a couple of years left.
Expect more of the same next season. AA will look to sign 1, maybe 2, 1 year guys or make a move for someone like Gausman who has a couple of years before he hits FA.
jpx7 (08-24-2021)
I'm still in the get vets on a 1 year deal. 1 year deals cant hurt you. And there's always available inning eaters in free agency.
jpx7 (08-24-2021)
Zack Greinke
jpx7 (08-24-2021)
I don't really have a dog in the fight here or even know where the Bumgarner push came from, but Bumgarner as a 4th-ish starter would be fine by me as long as we aren't paying him nearly $20m. On the one hand he might be rejuvinated a bit to get back into contention, on the other hand he chose Arizona for a reason. That said, the conversation made me look up his baseballsavant profile- interesting numbers if nothing else. https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savan...r-pitching-mlb
Fastball has ticked back up this year after dipping all the way down to 88 last year. Its sitting 90.6 this year, and I think the highest he ever sat was around 92 so maybe not a huge deal there. His barrel numbers are as low as they've been since 2016. His XwoBACON (obviously the most important stat) has dropped back below career average after a few bad years. I don't think there is any world where he gets back to who he was, but he could easily give you two years of significantly better pitching than what I think a guy like Smyly is capable of (even if his results have been reasonably good this year).
jpx7 (08-24-2021)
I still like the idea of getting Price from LA for the last year on his deal to help LA move some money around to bring back Scherzer and Kershaw.
Obviously they'd need to throw in the money that Boston is covering
What's the fascination with old dudes who are not what they are getting paid for anymore?
There are cheaper options with more upside almost every year.
jpx7 (08-24-2021)