2021 MLB Draft

[Julio3000]

I've completely given up on investing any time whatsoever researching draft options and forming an opinion.

I wanted Kyle Lewis, and was pretty upset at the Anderson pick. We will never know what Lewis could have been without the freak knee injury, but the Anderson pick turned out very well.

I was ecstatic about the Wright pick, but he has been nothing but disappointing since, and is well on the road to Bustville.

I had absolutely no idea who Harris was, and now he's the next big thing.

There's no point in spending effort on these guys because we are never right about any of them.

Yep.

[CJ9]

I tend to trust Kiley more with Braves draft rumors more than most with his previous time in the organization, even though AA kind of cleaned house on the draft side. Here's his new mock: https://www.espn.com/mlb/insider/sto...r-kumar-rocker

24. Atlanta Braves
Will Bednar, RHP, Mississippi State

Bednar has landing spots all over the 20s after a strong stretch run, including here to Atlanta. Schwellenbach, McGreevy and the college infielders (Black and Norby) also fit the specs here.

(Kiley also mentioned is being in on Bubba Chandler, who he has going 17 to Cincy)

[thewupk]

A funny thing the draft is. The 2017 1st round draft seems to be a bust for a lot of the top picks that year. At least compared to expectations. I know the lost year has hurt some of them but most aren't performing well at all.

2016 draft is funny as well. Anderson has been the clear best pick so far in the top 10 of that class. What's even better is that in the first round overall the Dodgers managed to grab Lux and Smith with the 20th and 32nd pick overall. Both already playing at high levels for them. Dodgers really do mirror the 90's Braves in so many ways. Great at drafting, deep pockets, a ton of division titles and 1 ring...

[IslandBrave]

I tend to trust Kiley more with Braves draft rumors more than most with his previous time in the organization, even though AA kind of cleaned house on the draft side. Here's his new mock: https://www.espn.com/mlb/insider/sto...r-kumar-rocker

24. Atlanta Braves
Will Bednar, RHP, Mississippi State

Bednar has landing spots all over the 20s after a strong stretch run, including here to Atlanta. Schwellenbach, McGreevy and the college infielders (Black and Norby) also fit the specs here.

(Kiley also mentioned is being in on Bubba Chandler, who he has going 17 to Cincy)

Bednar was incredible tonight in the CWS. 6IP 15K 1H and 1BB

[msstate7]

Bednar was incredible tonight in the CWS. 6IP 15K 1H and 1BB

He was. This was pretty out of the norm though

[Tapate50]

Bednar was incredible tonight in the CWS. 6IP 15K 1H and 1BB

****

[clvclv]

Would have been nice to sneak off for the week and hang out in Cary - big chunk of talent there, and a lot of it is playing.

[rico43]

A funny thing the draft is. The 2017 1st round draft seems to be a bust for a lot of the top picks that year. At least compared to expectations. I know the lost year has hurt some of them but most aren't performing well at all.

2016 draft is funny as well. Anderson has been the clear best pick so far in the top 10 of that class. What's even better is that in the first round overall the Dodgers managed to grab Lux and Smith with the 20th and 32nd pick overall. Both already playing at high levels for them. Dodgers really do mirror the 90's Braves in so many ways. Great at drafting, deep pockets, a ton of division titles and 1 ring...

Another remarkable thing is the injuries and Tommy John surgeries to the other top pitchers in the 2016 draft class:
Riley Pint (4th overall to Rockies) announced his retirement June 8 with a career 4-21, 5.58 record -- all in Class A or below. He'd been moved to the bullpen this season.
A.J. Puk (6th to A's) had TJ surgery in 2018, a shoulder debridement and was moved to relief. But he reached the majors in 2019 and has thrown 3.1 shutout innings in his only 2021 appearance for the A's and is currently in AAA with an 11.02 ERA.

[CJ9]

New Pipeline mock -

24. Braves: Will Bednar, RHP, Mississippi State
The same pitcher names keep coming up with the Braves: Chandler, Bednar, McGreevy, Schwellenbach and Saint Mary's left-hander Ky Bush. Atlanta may prefer Schwellenbach as a shortstop.

[Enscheff]

Very interesting take from a guy freshly out of the Astros scouting department: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/scouting...st-round-arms/

More so than the actual content, a few things about the evaluation process jump out at me...

1. He grades these guys based on a dollar value. This seems like a way to map them to a draft slot, as well as works to set up pool allotment to various draft strategies (saving on some guys to spend more on others).

2. He is very interested in fastball shape, almost more than velocity. His preference for the rising FA seems to me it could be opening up the door for sinking action to be undervalued.

3. The fact he is commenting on pitch shape leads me to assume he has access to Statcast data for these guys. How??

The guys he scouted in this piece...

Ty Madden
Value: $4.5M = Pick 11
Money quote: Prototypical starting pitcher in terms of frame/delivery, with plus velocity and plus shape to fastball to go with a slider that could be a difference maker.

Gunnar Hoglund
Value: $3.25M = Pick 20
Money quote: ...breaking ball is one of the best in the draft... Worries about the fastball in terms of velocity and pitch shape.

Gavin Williams
Value: $2.75M = Pick 25
Money quote: Good velo/bad shape guy who will need to maintain the giddy-up when he’s going every five days. Two impressive breaking balls in terms of spin and shape

I wonder how prevalent this preference to rising FAs is throughout MLB, and if any teams can fix the pitch shape.

[DirkPiggler]

Very interesting take from a guy freshly out of the Astros scouting department: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/scouting...st-round-arms/

More so than the actual content, a few things about the evaluation process jump out at me...

1. He grades these guys based on a dollar value. This seems like a way to map them to a draft slot, as well as works to set up pool allotment to various draft strategies (saving on some guys to spend more on others).

2. He is very interested in fastball shape, almost more than velocity. His preference for the rising FA seems to me it could be opening up the door for sinking action to be undervalued.

3. The fact he is commenting on pitch shape leads me to assume he has access to Statcast data for these guys. How??

The guys he scouted in this piece...

Ty Madden
Value: $4.5M = Pick 11
Money quote: Prototypical starting pitcher in terms of frame/delivery, with plus velocity and plus shape to fastball to go with a slider that could be a difference maker.

Gunnar Hoglund
Value: $3.25M = Pick 20
Money quote: ...breaking ball is one of the best in the draft... Worries about the fastball in terms of velocity and pitch shape.

Gavin Williams
Value: $2.75M = Pick 25
Money quote: Good velo/bad shape guy who will need to maintain the giddy-up when he’s going every five days. Two impressive breaking balls in terms of spin and shape

I wonder how prevalent this preference to rising FAs is throughout MLB, and if any teams can fix the pitch shape.

RE: #3. Most if not all the big time college baseball programs have the technology to accumulate Statcast data. Ole Miss and Texas definitely fit that bill...ECU has been successful of late, so it wouldn't surprise me if they have it as well. I would imagine the schools share the data with scouts for the sake of their players.

[50PoundHead]

Keith Law's latest has us taking Nebraska RHP/SS Spencer Schwellenbach. Didn't say if we were taking him as a pitcher or everyday player. Also mentioned the possibility of 2B/3B Tyler Black from Wright State and 2B Connor Norby from East Carolina.

[Carp]

I know very little about this year's draft class, but Tyler Black routinely gets called one of the best pure hitters in the draft.

I also like Dominic Hamel simply because he has some of the best spin rates in the class.

[clvclv]

Schwellenbach pitching now at the combine - highest readings I saw...

Fastball - 96 mph, 2359 rpm
Sinker - 90 mph, 2388 rpm
Breaking Ball - 82 mph 2571 rpm

6'1" was longest extension, was typically 5'8"-5'9"

[Tapate50]

Bednar looking decent . 6ip 3 runs vs Texas.

[CyYoung31]

Well, Bednar is throwing a no-hitter in the deciding game of the CWS.

[clvclv]

Well, Bednar is throwing a no-hitter in the deciding game of the CWS.

Saw something roll across the MLB Network scroll (or it might have been ESPN's earlier during lunch) that had him as the #24 prospect - wasn't a mock, but the number was at least interesting.

[Tapate50]

Interesting coincidence....
I’d be fine with it but it’s totally dependent on who else was there

[clvclv]

Latest Pipeline mock has us teetering between McGreevy and Ky Bush.

https://www.mlb.com/news/mlb-mock-dr...draft-coverage

Still think that if Harry Ford is there he's a no-brainer.

[Tapate50]

FG latest mock:

24. Atlanta Braves
Pick: Trey Sweeney, SS Eastern Illinois

The Braves have been attached to plenty of high school outfielders and a few college arms (especially Cusick), but also have a history of taking college middle infielders who check the statistical boxes per their model. Trey Sweeney does just that, with power, walks, and plenty of contact, although evaluators are mixed on his swing mechanics.

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/mock-draft-2-0-3/