GDT: Braves @ Mutts Game 1 6/21

[msstate7]

Surplus value guys, what's a trade for Frazier and Rodriguez look like?

[Carp]

Surplus value guys, what's a trade for Frazier and Rodriguez look like?

Hard to say for a few reasons, but I'll try. Reynolds wasn't a super heralded prospect and barely has 1000 PAs to his name. But he put up 4 WAR in his rookie season and is on pace for 7 WAR this year, which would put him in some pretty elite company. Still, it's hard to get a good projection for him going forward. He has 4.5 years remaining control. For fun, let's just assume he averages around 4 WAR per season over those 4 years. That gives him roughly 18 WAR over that span. I'm too lazy to look, but I think the going rate for 1 WAR is still 9 mill. As a super 2, he could likely make 35 million through Arby. So for Reynolds you have the following:

18 x 9 million = 162 million. 162 - 35 = 127 million in surplus value.

Richard Rodriguez has 2.5 years of control remaining and should be expected to produce roughly 2.5 WAR over this time. The problem is you have to significantly overpay (in terms of surplus value) for top closers on the market. I don't know how to properly value that, but let's assume you double that to 5 WAR. I have no idea how his arby situation will play out, but let's assume he makes a total of 10 million in arby over the next 2 seasons. So you would have the following for Rodriguez:

5 x 9 = 45 million. 45 - 10 = 35 million.

All together, 162 million. That's a pretty substantial cost. Fortunately, we're dealing with the Pirates here and they don't know how to properly value players. So we could get a slight discount. But in general, we likely don't have the prospects to get it done without sacrificing at least half of our top 10 prospects, and I would assume Pache would be have to be included.

[clvclv]

Hard to say for a few reasons, but I'll try. Reynolds wasn't a super heralded prospect and barely has 1000 PAs to his name. But he put up 4 WAR in his rookie season and is on pace for 7 WAR this year, which would put him in some pretty elite company. Still, it's hard to get a good projection for him going forward. He has 4.5 years remaining control. For fun, let's just assume he averages around 4 WAR per season over those 4 years. That gives him roughly 18 WAR over that span. I'm too lazy to look, but I think the going rate for 1 WAR is still 9 mill. As a super 2, he could likely make 35 million through Arby. So for Reynolds you have the following:

18 x 9 million = 162 million. 162 - 35 = 127 million in surplus value.

Richard Rodriguez has 2.5 years of control remaining and should be expected to produce roughly 2.5 WAR over this time. The problem is you have to significantly overpay (in terms of surplus value) for top closers on the market. I don't know how to properly value that, but let's assume you double that to 5 WAR. I have no idea how his arby situation will play out, but let's assume he makes a total of 10 million in arby over the next 2 seasons. So you would have the following for Rodriguez:

5 x 9 = 45 million. 45 - 10 = 35 million.

All together, 162 million. That's a pretty substantial cost. Fortunately, we're dealing with the Pirates here and they don't know how to properly value players. So we could get a slight discount. But in general, we likely don't have the prospects to get it done without sacrificing at least half of our top 10 prospects, and I would assume Pache would be have to be included.

This is why I've thought Frazier was the more likely target. He's never put up more than 2.2 WAR in a full season, so this season is quite possibly his career year at age 29 with one year of control left. Maybe he's turned a corner, but with that BABIP and hard-hit rate, is it really fair to expect him to be more than a 2 WAR player in 2022?