Quote Originally Posted by Enscheff View Post
He has no pitch classified as a sinker. The pitches identified by statcast are FA, SL, CU and CH. So already this metric is sketchy.

His FA sitting at 94.4 is roughly average MLB velocity nowadays. The 8.4" of rise is a bit below average, and so is the 4.5" of horizontal movement. His spin rate of 2467 is well above MLB average of 2301, so there is potentially room to improve this pitch. Right now it's pretty average though.

The SL is firm at 87.4 with average sink of roughly 1.7". The issue is it has almost no horizontal break at 0.2", which is like Grade 35. It's his most thrown off speed pitch, but it simply doesn't have very good shape, and might be what people are calling a sinker. It would be a very slow SI with elite sink and no horizontal movement...but it's not a sinker.

The CU is also firm at 81.2, but this pitch actually has useful shape to it. It sinks -6.6", which is plus, and moves glove side 3.1", which is a bit below average. This a power downer curve that is most definitely his best breaking ball.

He only threw 8 CHs so far, and it is a bit firm compared to the FA at 88.8. It does have above plus sink with only 2.4" of rise, and Grade 55 or better arm side run of 8.6". This pitch has potential, and like most pitchers, the development of this pitch will make him more than a BP arm.

I seem to remember hearing about Muller as some guy who added velocity and was pushing close to triple digits. I also remember something along the lines of "best FA and CU in the minors". That certainly doesn't appear to be the case based on his MLB statcast data so far, or at least I hope those aren't the best FA and CU in the organization.

There are definitely raw ingredients present to make a valuable SP. The velocity and spin rate is there on the FA, and if that can be fine tuned into a better shape that would be a great improvement. The CU is already an out pitch, so if the CH can be developed he will have the requisite arsenal of a 3/4 SP. Then it all boils down to command and execution, just like it does for every single pitcher that ever played this sport.
Good stuff. The potential is clearly there, but like you said, he’s raw and really needs to fully develop that 3rd pitch.