Trades/acquisitions

[Enscheff]

Another thing to consider is do you think Oakland is smart? If you say they are, how do you justify giving up this great pitcher for a rental when they had a 10% chance of winning the west? So a smart team on a tight budget traded a star for a chance to be in a 1-game playoff.

That's why back when we first discussed the trade I qualified it with "unless the As pulled the wool over the Marlins' eyes".

It is certainly possible they know something about Luzardo that the Marlins don't, which made them willing to deal him. Of course, even smart teams make mistakes...they just make fewer mistakes than the dumb teams.

[50PoundHead]

Bad for Senzel? Riley was a 55 FV prospect which means he's a real prospect so his development isn't all that surprising. Muller's results have a lot of luck to them. I think that's obvious. Where he ends up who knows. But I peg him as a back end of the rotation guy at best.

Muller's ceiling is exactly that (and there's some value to it) unless his velocity ticks back up. Worth waiting to see. He's had some luck, but he hasn't looked like a total basket case on the mound and he's been a lot more consistent with location than I thought he'd be. Of course, that could all end this week.

[Carp]

I often wonder if some prospect just flame out because they are not on a good team. I know not in every case, but humans are humans for a reason and when you have to go out for 162 games knowing you are going to lose 100 of them, it has to be hard. Clearly the elite guys are just going to be good because they are just good.. But I wonder if in an alternate universe you switched Senzel and Riley teams, would you see career paths being different or about the same.

There are most definitely some prospects that fall into that category. Some teams probably push their players too much and they get hurt, where they may not have gotten hurt in a system that didn't rush them. Some teams simply have terrible instructors, and they rarely hit on prospects despite consistently picking high in the draft. You normally see a lot of their players go on to have better careers once they leave their franchise.

But overall, I feel like the supremely vast majority of prospects' careers followed their likeliest scenarios.

[thewupk]

There are most definitely some prospects that fall into that category. Some teams probably push their players too much and they get hurt, where they may not have gotten hurt in a system that didn't rush them. Some teams simply have terrible instructors, and they rarely hit on prospects despite consistently picking high in the draft. You normally see a lot of their players go on to have better careers once they leave their franchise.

But overall, I feel like the supremely vast majority of prospects' careers followed their likeliest scenarios.

Pirates

[thethe]

Pirates

I mean - They hit but trade them right before they take off.

[bravesfanMatt]

There are most definitely some prospects that fall into that category. Some teams probably push their players too much and they get hurt, where they may not have gotten hurt in a system that didn't rush them. Some teams simply have terrible instructors, and they rarely hit on prospects despite consistently picking high in the draft. You normally see a lot of their players go on to have better careers once they leave their franchise.

But overall, I feel like the supremely vast majority of prospects' careers followed their likeliest scenarios.

yeah, I guess I get the whole organizational philosophy and coaching differences.. But I guess I was more saying if everything was equal but a team won 100 games versus a team that lost 100 games, if certain mid level prospect would flame out just because of the environment.

so another words, I wonder if mid tier to lower prospects have to battle the complacency factor on their developmental path over guys coming up on winning orgs.

[thewupk]

I mean - They hit but trade them right before they take off.

They rarely hit

[thethe]

They rarely hit

They drafted Cole/Taillon/Glasnow/Meadows/Mcutchen in the last 15 years and I'm sure there is more that were decent which I can't name off the top of my head.

[thewupk]

They drafted Cole/Taillon/Glasnow/Meadows/Mcutchen in the last 15 years and I'm sure there is more that were decent which I can't name off the top of my head.

Try going back to 94 and tell me if you think they have had success drafting since Bonds left

[McCann'sCans]

The A's started Luzardo in game 1 of the Wild Card round last year, so they must have at least had some belief in him. Felt like a pretty big win for Miami to get him. Not sure I understand the Muller comps- Luzardo would seem to have a lot more upside than Muller based on their careers and arsenals to date. Obviously that could change if Luzardo continues to backslide and/or if Muller could find the command that he has found at 92-93 and harness it at 96, but we haven't seen that yet.

Luzardo went to Stoneman Douglas HS in Parkland- interesting fact that I saw when looking up his profile. He was actually back home on the day of the shooting and was supposed to work out with the baseball team after school.

[Southcack77]

Teheran had a BABIP like 30 pts lower than the second guy one year to struggle in at like 3 wins and folks were like steady old Teheran.

A .250 BABIP is crazy now?

Yeah he's likely to regress,

[Southcack77]

I remember being told this exact thing when I compared Riley to senzel. How's that's playing out?

Riley is vastly better than anyone who was killing you for holding out on him ever gave him a possibility of being.

Including me.

[CyYoung31]

How would everyone feel about a Freeman for Hosmer, Abrams and Hassell trade?

Yes Hosmer is an albatross. I said that when he was a FA. However, in 2022 he's owed $20M, then in 23, 24, 25 he's at $13M each. Can he be a 1.5WAR guy in 23, 24, 25? If so, the real outlier is 22. BUT, if you re-sign Freeman to a Goldy type contract (5 years, $130M - and why would Freeman take less in reality) then you are paying Freeman $26/for the next 5 years.

The above trade would be an overpay for the Pads BUT not by a huge amount. Preller might do it to get Freeman for the stretch run (plus sign him long term) and get rid of Hosmer's obligations.

LOOOOOOOOOOLLLLLLLL

[CyYoung31]

Would you go to Vegas and play a game where the house tilt or edge is 75%? Blackjack is 1-2%, Craps is about 1.5-5%, slots 3-20%. For a 5% house edge you should expect to lose a nickel for every dollar you have over time. There IS always the possibility of hitting it big which keeps people gambling. But almost all eventually leave without shirts.

BUT, no one gambles when the odds against them are 75% or worse. The Braves odds to make the postseason, not actually win anything is much worse than that.

You sell if you have any sense. You sell them all (those on expiring contracts and others if the value/return equation is right).

Asking for the suspension of disbelief and mismanaging expiring assets in effort to carry on the illusion of being competitive (not even great) is a quick way to extended mediocrity topped with an eventual rebuild.

ROFL

[PawPawMaxwell]

I wouldn't get too hysterical just yet. After all the final decision as to where he plays next year is Freddie's. Not your, not mine, not even AA's' when the final bell rings.

[Heyward]

I wouldn't get too hysterical just yet. After all the final decision as to where he plays next year is Freddie's. Not your, not mine, not even AA's' when the final bell rings.

Freddie wants to stay in Atlanta. If the money/years/terms are anywhere close to what he wants, he's not leaving.

[CyYoung31]

I wouldn't get too hysterical just yet. After all the final decision as to where he plays next year is Freddie's. Not your, not mine, not even AA's' when the final bell rings.

Irrelevant. Completely irrelevant.

[PawPawMaxwell]

Freddie wants to stay in Atlanta. If the money/years/terms are anywhere close to what he wants, he's not leaving.

Are you serious or just hopeful?

[Heyward]

Are you serious or just hopeful?

Both? Everything we know about Freddie knows he wants to stay with the Braves.

[PawPawMaxwell]

Both? Everything we know about Freddie knows he wants to stay with the Braves.

But we really dont know ANYTHING about Freddie except what we see on the field. Everything he and any other shopping FA says about staying is only sales talk.