Originally Posted by Carp
Reynolds can only help Pittsburgh now by being traded -- you are absolutely correct. Pittsburgh probably won't be anything the next couple of years, so why not trade him/Rodriguez/Frazier for top 100 prospects that will make Pittsburgh good in the next 2-3 years.
But then again, I am a fan of selling off any expiring contract when I know a team isn't going to the playoffs or wouldn't do anything in the playoffs if they made it (ala 2021 Braves).
Okay then. If you are AA, what do you offer for any or all of the Pirates listed?
If I'm the Pirates, I move Frazier and keep Reynolds. Frazier will be 30 and while he's a decent player, this year may be the outlier for him so I would sell high.
I'll add that I don't think the market for Frazier is going to be all that hot.
Last edited by 50PoundHead; 07-14-2021 at 12:16 PM.
Completely different circumstances too - just to be as fair as possible.
Remember, when they traded for Archer, Frazier couldn't crack their starting lineup - Marte was in CF, they still had the "good" Polanco (23 HRs, 32 2Bs, 12 SBs that year), Josh Bell had just been promoted, Josh Harrison was playing like an All-Star, Taillon looked like a legitimate #1/#2, Trevor Williams looked like a legitimate #3, Joe Musgrove was their #4, and Mitch Keller was the #16 prospect on Pipeline's list absolutely blowing everyone away in the minors. Keller was the #2 RHSP ahead of Casey Mize, Michael Kopech, Mike Soroka, Sixto Sanchez, and Hunter Greene that year. Marte and Polanco had already signed extremely team-friendly extensions based on how they were performing at the time, Ke'Bryan Hayes was on his way, Moran was doing a pretty good job of holding down 3B, and Brian Reynolds was their #8 prospect and was 23 years old in AA.
Had the Archer trade worked out and they had gotten the guy they thought they were trading for, the Pirates were in really good shape for several years to come when they made that deal. They had just drafted Travis Swaggerty (who was a Top 100 guy before he started playing), and Cole Tucker was expected to be their SS of the near future and stole 35 bases in AA that season.
At the end of the day it turned out to be a really lopsided trade because of what the three guys they gave up turned into, but none of them were their top prospects at the time (Glasnow was having loads of trouble throwing strikes, and there were tons of people that were convinced that he was ultimately going to be a RP), they were trading from their depth, and they were really trying to make what was a competitive team (at the time) that much more competitive.
Last edited by clvclv; 07-14-2021 at 12:54 PM.
Has there EVER been a statement and question a certain someone should absolutely never have made and asked publicly more than...
Kinda pathetic to see yourself as a message board knight in shining armor. How impotent does someone have to be in real life to resort to playing hero on a message board?
Fangraphs says Reynolds is 26 right now
At this point the only one I'd be really interested in is the one that everyone is going to be after - Reynolds.
The problem is exactly what Carp laid out - he's going to cost multiple Top 100 prospects IF you can get them to part with him, meaning one of Pache or Waters AND Langeliers might not be enough. That's simply too much for me. I'd be willing to offer them their choice of Waters or Pache, their choice of Wright/Wilson/Touki/Shuster/De La Cruz, and filler.
Reynolds is still benefitting from a high (and likely unsustainable) BABIP, and this the best stretch he's ever had - including the low minors. He hit as many HRs during the first half as he did in 134 games in 2019. Maybe he's figuring it out, maybe he's just played the best half-season he ever will in his career - this isn't exactly something anyone has ever expected from him. Given their ages there's a legitimate chance that Waters or Pache turns out to be as good. They're both further along than he was when he was at their ages coming up.
Last edited by clvclv; 07-14-2021 at 12:57 PM.
Has there EVER been a statement and question a certain someone should absolutely never have made and asked publicly more than...
Kinda pathetic to see yourself as a message board knight in shining armor. How impotent does someone have to be in real life to resort to playing hero on a message board?
Yeah - he was 23 that year - hit the wrong key.
Has there EVER been a statement and question a certain someone should absolutely never have made and asked publicly more than...
Kinda pathetic to see yourself as a message board knight in shining armor. How impotent does someone have to be in real life to resort to playing hero on a message board?
Yeah, we may have the capital to get Reynolds, but it would absolutely kill our farm. It would be an awful decision. That's JUST Reynolds.
Reynolds has roughly 140 million in surplus value. It would take a pretty epic package to obtain if Pitt values him properly. Pache and Langeliers would get you a little over half way there. So you'd probably have to include a couple other top 10 prospects at minimum.
Big pass for me.
It was a pretty dumb seeming trade at the time.
Jaw (07-15-2021)
Not Braves related. Danny Duffy makes sense as pitcher who could be traded. Up for free agency next season and on a bad team. Question about his stamina at this point since he recently came back from a forearm strain. Believe he has the ability to veto any trade due to his 10 year status. Probably prefers something on the west coast.
Angels signed Adam Eaton so that option--thankfully--has been put to bed. I had to laugh when one of the Braves' unofficial chatter sites thought the Neslony-to-the-White Sox deal was a harbinger of Eaton coming to Atlanta. Nobody was touching that contract until Eaton cleared waivers and became a free agent. Sox are still on the hook for everything but league minimum.
Duffy definitely has 10/5 rights. Not someone I would think you would give a qualified offer to so the Royals should be shopping him.
2021 is done. It was 90+% done before Acuna went down. It's 100% done now. Floundering around trying to maintain respectability at this point is just dumb. It's not really how MLB is set up at this point.
Priority #1: The Braves need to see if they can nullify Ozuna's contract (I'm sure they are looking at all options). He's not tradeable and not playable. At this point, whether he did anything or not, he's an albatross.
Priority #2: The Braves need to trade: Freeman, Swanson, Morton (has to be the right team), Smyly and Smith and get best value coming back, even if it means sending money the other way (if they stay then you're paying them anyway)
Priority #3: They should certainly be OPEN if the right opportunity presents itself to trading Adrianza, Heredia, Almonte, d'Arnaud (if he gets healthy enough quick enough to trade), Luke Jackson, Minter, Martin, Matzek and Santana. These guys probably would mostly be sweeteners on any deals involving those above.
Priority #4: Be prepared to move, on an opportunity basis, from the pool of upper level minor league bouncers like Wright and Wilson if needed to flesh out a deal.
Deals should be for best talent you can get regardless of proximity to the ML. There shouldn't be any "got to have a ML first baseman back" type deals.
It would take guts to do it but if AA wants to extend the Window, IMO, this is the best way to do it.
PawPawMaxwell (07-15-2021), Super (07-15-2021)
I've sorta been a broken record on this, but no one has addressed it... if you sell off the fan favorites (particularly FF and Swanson), kiss good attendance goodbye. If this happens, payroll will drop, again. Even if the season is going nowhere, it's in the best interest of the 2022 braves to keep FF and Swanson around the rest of this year imo
Attendance in Atlanta is driven by how competitive the Team is. The Team isn't going to be competitive the rest of the year, certainly not more than marginally. If they keep FF for 3 more months to get an extra 50-100K fans into the seats and then let him walk in the offseason and replace him with a lesser version forcing the team to be mediocre again, year after year, attendance will decline. Freeman is going to cost about $10M for the rest of the season. How many butts? If each fan spends an average of $100 then that's 100K fans just to pay for Freeman. I'm not suggesting give him away for nothing. But if you can get building blocks for the future, you have to do it, especially if you think he's going to require a Goldy contract to re-sign.
I agree with the broken record part .....BUT..... Ill remind you that people dont go to see Freeman and Swanson. Fans go to see the Braves and go even more frequently when there is a good chance they win. If every fan was fanatical such as you and most posters on fan forums the internet wouldnt process the posts fast enough to squeeze them all in.
Horsehide Harry (07-15-2021)
When does the 21-22 school year start in Georgia and surrounding Southern states? Attendance usually goes down dramatically when that happens, so even if headline guys are traded, there is an expected attendance drop. There is a problem, however, in what players would be replacing the headline guys. Fans can be persuaded to buy tickets to watch exciting younger players who will comprise the team's future. They won't pay to see Johan Camargo taking over for Freddie Freeman.
It's really too bad that Pache and Waters have done semi-face plants this year.
To Harry and anyone else interested. Agree with pretty much all of the intent of your post I just think I would have a slightly different approach. #1 I dont see Ozuna contract as a huge obstacle. In fact I think the Bauer situation that popped up enhances my thoughts. In any event Ozuna is done IMO. If Cobb County is still conservative and they are pissed at Manfred or Bauer has to be banned or given a ultra long suspension then Ozuna is toast.
#2 Every thing FF and AA have stated so far regarding extension/plans/wants etc is nothing more than bargaining position. The recent talk about the Georgia weather and California weather and fact that FF owns a home in Orange County tells me a lot. But the unspoken clue to me is the fact that Charlie will be going to school soon. My AA side says talk to my buddy Miniasan. Can you imagine Moreno with 3 MVPs on his roster. Swanson has to go if for no other reason than to clear a spot for one of the big 3 SS coming up (Baez not included imo) Other than those 2 I dont see any need to move a pitcher. Need money next year for FA signings.
I think you're dramatically underestimating how much of the casual fan base would turn on the team if they sold Freeman and Swanson. In a vacuum from a competitive standpoint, you should absolutely trade both of them if you are confident that Freddie isn't resigning. In reality, I think there is a near 0% chance that either of those two would be traded. If they go 3-12 leading into the deadline and get swept in 5 games by the Mets I might up those odds to 5%, but I just can't see it happening unless Freddie literally says 'send me to the Red Sox and I'll come back next year.'
Posting Permissions
Reply With Quote