GDT 8/30/21: Braves @ Dodgers - Weird Lineup

[NYCBrave]

The Smyly deal was especially odd because of when it happened. He was the first (?) significant SP signed, as if the Braves felt they needed to jump the market to get a guy everyone was going to be chasing.

It was nowhere near as bad as the Smith contract (which I blasted the moment it happened), but it was an odd signing. At the end of the day, Smyly has provided innings at the back of the rotation. Obviously not something you want to pay $11M to get, but he wasn't some complete void like Hamels...and the downside is only a single year.

Remember after the Smyly signing when most of us thought it meant we were going to have a ton of money to spend last off season?

[thewupk]

Remember after the Smyly signing when most of us thought it meant we were going to have a ton of money to spend last off season?

I also remember the Braves spending 42 million in free agency last year

[jpx7]

Drew Smyly sucks hairy ass and did before Alex signed him for $11M. He could’ve built a nice bullpen with those resources. How he talked himself into thinking Smyly was having a mid-career resurgence off of 28 innings interrupted with an IL stint I will never understand.

Smyly has been fine. And spending big bucks on the bullpen is a loser’s game—cf the Will Smith contract, which (as Enchef mentioned) is real blunder on Anthopoulos’ CV.

[Russ2dollas]

Remember after the Smyly signing when most of us thought it meant we were going to have a ton of money to spend last off season?

I believe AA has said that he thought he had more money and then his budget changed.

I think the Smyly deal is AA being very model driven on scouting. The models they use seem to be very high on peak velocity. Shuster and Smyly are two examples of guys they jumped on, in part, after short sample velocity spikes. Both guys are back to normal.

AA said in the presser that they loved the analytics on Smyly's curveball as well.

I think we need some more traditional scouting in with the analytics. Or at least we need to be suspect of SSS changes.

[thethe]

Smyly 'earned' his contract but now with the benefit of hindsight it wasn't a good deal.

[jpx7]

Smyly 'earned' his contract but now with the benefit of hindsight it wasn't a good deal.

Disagree. I think it's been a fine deal.

As many said at the time, myself included, the Smith deal was bad without the benefit of hindsight; and it looks even worse with said benefit.

Ditto re-signing Shane Greene and expecting him to come in and act as bullpen savior—though at least, by waiting him out, his deal ended up short and relatively cheap. Nonetheless, both examples point to a trend: dumping big money into the bullpen is a fool's errand, especially for teams in the Braves' modest, mid-market payroll stratus.

[thethe]

Disagree. I think it's been a fine deal.

As many said at the time, myself included, the Smith deal was bad without the benefit of hindsight; and it looks even worse with said benefit.

Ditto re-signing Shane Greene and expecting him to come in and act as bullpen savior—though at least, by waiting him out, his deal ended up short and relatively cheap. Nonetheless, both examples point to a trend: dumping big money into the bullpen is a fool's errand, especially for teams in the Braves' modest, mid-market payroll stratus.

I take it back. He has not earned his contract at all.

Ranking towards the bottom in xwOBAcon. He's been brutal and like others have said...trying to capitalize on short term spikes in stuff may not have been the best approach.

Could have signed so many other guys for a fraction of the cost.

[50PoundHead]

I believe AA has said that he thought he had more money and then his budget changed.

I think the Smyly deal is AA being very model driven on scouting. The models they use seem to be very high on peak velocity. Shuster and Smyly are two examples of guys they jumped on, in part, after short sample velocity spikes. Both guys are back to normal.

AA said in the presser that they loved the analytics on Smyly's curveball as well.

I think we need some more traditional scouting in with the analytics. Or at least we need to be suspect of SSS changes.

My problem is that the analytics came from a flawed season which casts doubt on the accuracy of the items measured when applied over time. I don't have any trouble with digging more deeply into these types of analytics (pitch spin, exit velocity, etc.). They put a finer point by greatly augmenting what is witnessed through traditional scouting. The problem with using 2020 as the environment in which the measurements are taken is like gauging the effects on a drought from a five-minute deluge.

Smyly is who he is and what he did in San Francisco really didn't change that at all. Some are fine with that and some aren't given what he was paid. But I think a lot of folks expected a lot more given how the signing was framed.

[clvclv]

I believe AA has said that he thought he had more money and then his budget changed.

I think the Smyly deal is AA being very model driven on scouting. The models they use seem to be very high on peak velocity. Shuster and Smyly are two examples of guys they jumped on, in part, after short sample velocity spikes. Both guys are back to normal.

AA said in the presser that they loved the analytics on Smyly's curveball as well.

I think we need some more traditional scouting in with the analytics. Or at least we need to be suspect of SSS changes.

Not sure what "velocity spike" you're referring to. Shuster's velocity readings increased between his Sophomore and Junior seasons (which isn't exactly out of the ordinary by any stretch), but that wasn't why he was drafted - they picked him because his change improved and he started landing his breaking ball for more strikes. Jumping from sitting 88-92 to 91-95 isn't some massive "spike" when just cleaning up his mechanics a little bit could easily account for that. He's been described as a "crafty lefty" since the day he was picked (which makes Smyly a not-so-bad comp) - nobody has talked him up as someone with a big fastball that I've ever seen.

[clvclv]

My problem is that the analytics came from a flawed season which casts doubt on the accuracy of the items measured when applied over time. I don't have any trouble with digging more deeply into these types of analytics (pitch spin, exit velocity, etc.). They put a finer point by greatly augmenting what is witnessed through traditional scouting. The problem with using 2020 as the environment in which the measurements are taken is like gauging the effects on a drought from a five-minute deluge.

Smyly is who he is and what he did in San Francisco really didn't change that at all. Some are fine with that and some aren't given what he was paid. But I think a lot of folks expected a lot more given how the signing was framed.

A big part of that has to do with those folks' flawed expectations. Those are the types of signings that legitimate contenders need to make to keep from having to count on 23 and 24 year olds with no track record of success at the MLB level.

Ynoa, Touki, Davidson, and Muller have been successful when called on, but they just as easily could have been Kyle Wright/Bryse Wilson. Everything you get from the kids needs to be treated as icing on the cake - not something you hang your playoff hopes on a few months after coming within one game of going to the World Series. Counting on them when you're rebuilding like the Royals and Tigers are is fine, but then no one was going to be upset with the growing pains their young arms have endured in 2021.

[Russ2dollas]

Not sure what "velocity spike" you're referring to. Shuster's velocity readings increased between his Sophomore and Junior seasons (which isn't exactly out of the ordinary by any stretch), but that wasn't why he was drafted - they picked him because his change improved and he started landing his breaking ball for more strikes. Jumping from sitting 88-92 to 91-95 isn't some massive "spike" when just cleaning up his mechanics a little bit could easily account for that. He's been described as a "crafty lefty" since the day he was picked (which makes Smyly a not-so-bad comp) - nobody has talked him up as someone with a big fastball that I've ever seen.

https://www.mlb.com/news/braves-2020-draft
After spending the fall making his hip turn slightly more aggressive, Shuster saw his fastball velocity rise from 89-93 mph to 91-95 mph. He touched 97 mph a few times and continued to show good swing-and-miss stuff with his changeup. His slider remains questionable, but it has shown some improvement.

https://www.baseballamerica.com/stor...ching-surface/
In four starts this season, the 6-foot-3, 210-pound lefthander's velocity had bumped from the upper 80s to the 91-95 mph range thanks to a revamped delivery. He posted a 43-to-4 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 26.1 innings before the pandemic ended the season.

I don't think he's thrown that hard. They've used him in short stints and his velo has mostly been reported 90-92. That is a big difference from 95

[Russ2dollas]

AA has gone out and targeted guys he has wanted in FA.
He got Donaldson, Ozuna, Hamels, Smith, Morton and Smyly. Donaldson, Ozuna and Morton were big hits. Hamels, Smith and Smyly were big misses. Ozuna's second contract looks like a miss.

Looks like AA just needs to stay away from Left Handed Pitchers and we'll be ok.

[50PoundHead]

A big part of that has to do with those folks' flawed expectations. Those are the types of signings that legitimate contenders need to make to keep from having to count on 23 and 24 year olds with no track record of success at the MLB level.

Ynoa, Touki, Davidson, and Muller have been successful when called on, but they just as easily could have been Kyle Wright/Bryse Wilson. Everything you get from the kids needs to be treated as icing on the cake - not something you hang your playoff hopes on a few months after coming within one game of going to the World Series. Counting on them when you're rebuilding like the Royals and Tigers are is fine, but then no one was going to be upset with the growing pains their young arms have endured in 2021.

I think the issue here is how the signing was framed. When those scratching their heads did a double-take, the front office justified the signing by stating that there was an uptick in Smyly's velocity and that somehow made all the difference. I wasn't expecting Sandy Koufax redux, but I was expecting a different Smyly than what he had been throughout his career. What we are seeing is Smyly as he has always been. If Anthopoulos had simply said, "We're looking to fill out the back of the rotation and maybe we went a few million over market on Smyly, but we want a stronger 1-5." But he framed it as though our analytics team had discovered life on Mars.

[NYCBrave]

I also remember the Braves spending 42 million in free agency last year

And we had how much come off the books from the prior year? Many thought we were going to blow the top off the previous years budget and go for it once the Smyly deal happened. That's a fact

[jpx7]

I think the issue here is how the signing was framed. When those scratching their heads did a double-take, the front office justified the signing by stating that there was an uptick in Smyly's velocity and that somehow made all the difference. I wasn't expecting Sandy Koufax redux, but I was expecting a different Smyly than what he had been throughout his career. What we are seeing is Smyly as he has always been. If Anthopoulos had simply said, "We're looking to fill out the back of the rotation and maybe we went a few million over market on Smyly, but we want a stronger 1-5." But he framed it as though our analytics team had discovered life on Mars.

I can see that complaint. I guess I just personally never envisioned the signing as more than a back-end starter investment, which a slight chance his velocity and spin-rate gains were real, in which case he'd be a real asset. And I'm ok with that sort of limited-liability bet, where the likely floor is one year of a slightly-overpaid #4 or #5, and the less-likely ceiling is one year of a really good #3. You can quibble with it, but the logic is comprehensible—it's an upside play where the downside is still useful.

I still just fundamentally don't understand the Smith deal—the terrible past month he's had notwithstanding.

[PawPawMaxwell]

I remember lots of the same grumbling years ago when John Burkett was signed and announced as the backend anchor. Burkett came alive in Atlanta and had a few more good years IIRC.

[Enscheff]

AA has gone out and targeted guys he has wanted in FA.
He got Donaldson, Ozuna, Hamels, Smith, Morton and Smyly. Donaldson, Ozuna and Morton were big hits. Hamels, Smith and Smyly were big misses. Ozuna's second contract looks like a miss.

Looks like AA just needs to stay away from Left Handed Pitchers and we'll be ok.

It's important to realize the 2 worst contracts AA has doled out with the Braves just so happen to be the 2 longest FA contracts he has given.

It should come as no surprise that long term FA contracts are usually a bad idea, and I still can't believe he passed on bats like Brantley due to not wanting to give them too many years only to give Will Freaking Smith 3 years. To this day the inconsistent logic applied there dumfounds me.

[Southcack77]

Disagree. I think it's been a fine deal.

As many said at the time, myself included, the Smith deal was bad without the benefit of hindsight; and it looks even worse with said benefit.

Ditto re-signing Shane Greene and expecting him to come in and act as bullpen savior—though at least, by waiting him out, his deal ended up short and relatively cheap. Nonetheless, both examples point to a trend: dumping big money into the bullpen is a fool's errand, especially for teams in the Braves' modest, mid-market payroll stratus.

I'm not sure how signing Shane Geeene has anything to do with Will Smith's deal and I'm positive that no one billed him as a bullpen savior.

Nor was it big money.

[Southcack77]

It's important to realize the 2 worst contracts AA has doled out with the Braves just so happen to be the 2 longest FA contracts he has given.

It should come as no surprise that long term FA contracts are usually a bad idea, and I still can't believe he passed on bats like Brantley due to not wanting to give them too many years only to give Will Freaking Smith 3 years. To this day the inconsistent logic applied there dumfounds me.

He didn't pass on Brantley.

[Southcack77]

I can see that complaint. I guess I just personally never envisioned the signing as more than a back-end starter investment, which a slight chance his velocity and spin-rate gains were real, in which case he'd be a real asset. And I'm ok with that sort of limited-liability bet, where the likely floor is one year of a slightly-overpaid #4 or #5, and the less-likely ceiling is one year of a really good #3. You can quibble with it, but the logic is comprehensible—it's an upside play where the downside is still useful.

I still just fundamentally don't understand the Smith deal—the terrible past month he's had notwithstanding.

Pretty positive no one spun Smyly as "Sandy Koufax."

This thing where the Braves have a press co Terence and say nice things about the guys that they just gave a lot of money to us taken a little too seriously if you're going to say later, but I thought he was Koufax. You know better. Don't blame the front office for what is your issue.

My view: Smyly was always strange signing and he's been a disappointment but not a big loss as far as value.

Smith was surprising because of position and hasn't been quite what he was signed to be but has given of good things.

Ozuna is largely outside of their control off the field and signed a good team deal. Sucks it is working out horribly.