GDT 8/30/21: Braves @ Dodgers - Weird Lineup

[clvclv]

https://www.mlb.com/news/braves-2020-draft
After spending the fall making his hip turn slightly more aggressive, Shuster saw his fastball velocity rise from 89-93 mph to 91-95 mph. He touched 97 mph a few times and continued to show good swing-and-miss stuff with his changeup. His slider remains questionable, but it has shown some improvement.

https://www.baseballamerica.com/stor...ching-surface/
In four starts this season, the 6-foot-3, 210-pound lefthander's velocity had bumped from the upper 80s to the 91-95 mph range thanks to a revamped delivery. He posted a 43-to-4 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 26.1 innings before the pandemic ended the season.

I don't think he's thrown that hard. They've used him in short stints and his velo has mostly been reported 90-92. That is a big difference from 95

You're using the high end to compare things to - that's nuts. He only has to hit those numbers ONCE for them to say he can get there. That's a range, and the vast majority of his pitches fall well below the top end of that range.

Your BA quote mirrors my point exactly - a delivery tweak led to a couple more MPH. A huge number of those fastballs would have been 92 or 93 MPH for that to be his established range. That might have been a "big fastball" in the 1980s, but certainly not since. A couple MPH doesn't exactly represent a "spike". Did the range go up? Sure. That came from a tweak, not because they suddenly expected that number to keep climbing from there. There's probably another MPH in there if they can further refine his delivery, but nobody's going to confuse him with Ynoa.

[clvclv]

I think the issue here is how the signing was framed. When those scratching their heads did a double-take, the front office justified the signing by stating that there was an uptick in Smyly's velocity and that somehow made all the difference. I wasn't expecting Sandy Koufax redux, but I was expecting a different Smyly than what he had been throughout his career. What we are seeing is Smyly as he has always been. If Anthopoulos had simply said, "We're looking to fill out the back of the rotation and maybe we went a few million over market on Smyly, but we want a stronger 1-5." But he framed it as though our analytics team had discovered life on Mars.

That's probably pushing it a bit, but he did say they expected continued improvement. It's really semantics though. A big part of AA's job in those interviews is to give the typical fan something to get really excited about. That's fine, but I don't confuse most posters here with "typical fans". I don't recall anyone saying Smyly was the missing piece that was going to put this team over the top. Most everyone thought that if he performed like he did in San Francisco that he'd be a great placeholder until Soroka was ready, and that he'd be a quality guy to be your Game 4 starter in a playoff series following Morton, Fried, and Soroka

They really liked what they saw in whichever metrics they based the decision on, and they paid a couple million dollar premium to get him to take a one year deal - before the run on SPs started - that wouldn't cause a huge problem down the road if he didn't perform. They brought him in to win games and not tax the pen, and he's done that pretty well IMO. When he keeps the ball in the yard he's really good. He's struggled with that at times, but he doesn't walk guys and give up 3 run bombs like Wright, Wilson, and even Touki (at times) did so he "gives you a chance" just about every time out.

I think that's pretty much what most folks here realistically expected while hoping he'd be even better than that. At the end of the contract, he will probably have won 11 or 12 games while the team fared well in his no-decisions. I think most teams would be more than happy with that from the guys at the back of their rotations.

[Russ2dollas]

You're using the high end to compare things to - that's nuts. He only has to hit those numbers ONCE for them to say he can get there. That's a range, and the vast majority of his pitches fall well below the top end of that range.

Your BA quote mirrors my point exactly - a delivery tweak led to a couple more MPH. A huge number of those fastballs would have been 92 or 93 MPH for that to be his established range. That might have been a "big fastball" in the 1980s, but certainly not since. A couple MPH doesn't exactly represent a "spike". Did the range go up? Sure. That came from a tweak, not because they suddenly expected that number to keep climbing from there. There's probably another MPH in there if they can further refine his delivery, but nobody's going to confuse him with Ynoa.

hes not throwing what he was throwing. The velocity jump moved him into first round discussion. He's back to Tom Glavine fastball and I doubt he gets Tom Glavine's strike zone.

[50PoundHead]

Pretty positive no one spun Smyly as "Sandy Koufax."

This thing where the Braves have a press co Terence and say nice things about the guys that they just gave a lot of money to us taken a little too seriously if you're going to say later, but I thought he was Koufax. You know better. Don't blame the front office for what is your issue.

My view: Smyly was always strange signing and he's been a disappointment but not a big loss as far as value.

Smith was surprising because of position and hasn't been quite what he was signed to be but has given of good things.

Ozuna is largely outside of their control off the field and signed a good team deal. Sucks it is working out horribly.

No one did spin Smyly as Sandy Koufax, but there was this air of "we're smarter than everyone else" that accompanied the signing when people questioned it.

[Southcack77]

No one did spin Smyly as Sandy Koufax, but there was this air of "we're smarter than everyone else" that accompanied the signing when people questioned it.

I think they just explained why they thought signing him was a good idea.

[clvclv]

No one did spin Smyly as Sandy Koufax, but there was this air of "we're smarter than everyone else" that accompanied the signing when people questioned it.

I think that's fair, but I also think most posters here saw through that and realized the reason they paid the premium was much more about getting him to take a one year deal well before the market had been set. JMO, but I think the metrics talk was more about framing the narrative to keep it from tilting toward "we're only interested in someone that will take a one year deal because we think the kids are going to be better - we're just trying to buy a little more development time for them".

GM-speak has been berry berry good to AA.

[50PoundHead]

I think they just explained why they thought signing him was a good idea.

It's not so much what was said, but the way in which it was said.