KLAW article on being wrong on Riley

[zbhargrove]

Just because a person’s physical peak is in their late twenties, doesn’t mean a professional athlete can’t have their best year before then. It happens all of the time. It also doesn’t mean a similar year can’t happen again. Besides, an .850 OPS isn’t that far removed from what he’s doing now.

I was at my physical peak when I was with your mom

[UNCBlue012]

I think Riley current career slash is likely what we’ll see out him over the next few years: .267/.334/.491/.825. He may improve here and there, especially in the OBP department, but it seems logical to me.

[CyYoung31]

I was at my physical peak when I was with your mom

I’m sure those 30 seconds were glorious.

[zbhargrove]

I’m sure those 30 seconds were glorious.

27 seconds

[OcalaBrave]

According to ESPN stats, Riley leads all qualified MLB 3B in OPS.

How much money could you have made on that bet in Vegas prior to the season?

Riley is the youngest on the list of the 10 qualifying (3.1 PA/game).

[Enscheff]

There are 23 guys who have logged 250+ PAs at 3B this season.

Riley ranks 1st in wOBA at .381.

However, folks might be wise to realize some of this appears unsustainable.

Riley ranks 5th in xwOBA at .363, behind Devers, Donaldson, Machado, and Ramirez...just ahead of Turner.

Riley also ranks 5th in wOBA-xwOBA at .018, suggesting there is some room for negative regression.

Regardless of the unsustainablilty of some of Riley's production, he appears to be a legit top 5-6 offensive 3B. His improvements have been nothing short of remarkable. He should be an awesome hitter in the 5 or 6 hole once Acuna is back.

[NYCBrave]

There are 23 guys who have logged 250+ PAs at 3B this season.

Riley ranks 1st in wOBA at .381.

However, folks might be wise to realize some of this appears unsustainable.

Riley ranks 5th in xwOBA at .363, behind Devers, Donaldson, Machado, and Ramirez...just ahead of Turner.

Riley also ranks 5th in wOBA-xwOBA at .018, suggesting there is some room for negative regression.

Regardless of the unsustainablilty of some of Riley's production, he appears to be a legit top 5-6 offensive 3B. His improvements have been nothing short of remarkable. He should be an awesome hitter in the 5 or 6 hole once Acuna is back.

Is another step forward with improvements possible for next year, or is this the best we are ever going to get out of him?

[Enscheff]

It's probably best not to assume Riley is going to follow any sort of predefined progression curve.

[Runnin]

We’re probably seeing peak Riley this year. Still, the fact that Riley has developed into a legit MLB hitter is a massive boon for the Braves.

Peak Riley was that first six weeks in 2019.

[Tapate50]

Pretty rare that a writer issues a “dang I whiffed bad on that guy” piece.

It’s usually for someone on the Dodgers or Ray’s.

[bravesguy]

I keep thinking the Riley bubble will burst although he seems to have figured something out since his June slump.

I was watching MLB this morning and they said that after June he made an adjustment, advised by his hitting instructor, to lower his hands to shorten his swing. They showed some side by side images of swings on same type pitches. It reminds me a lot of the adjustments that Acuna made a couple years ago.

So my question is...has anyone seen anything that would indicate Riley's adjustments are temporary of likely to regress.

[GovClintonTyree]

I keep thinking the Riley bubble will burst although he seems to have figured something out since his June slump.

I was watching MLB this morning and they said that after June he made an adjustment, advised by his hitting instructor, to lower his hands to shorten his swing. They showed some side by side images of swings on same type pitches. It reminds me a lot of the adjustments that Acuna made a couple years ago.

So my question is...has anyone seen anything that would indicate Riley's adjustments are temporary of likely to regress.

Sure. Here's one...in the last 17 games, Riley has hit .306 ... with an OBP of .306. He's 23 for 75 with no walks (0%) and 22 Ks (29%).

He's gotta start taking his walks again or they're gonna slider-off-the-plate him to death.

[CyYoung31]

Sure. Here's one...in the last 17 games, Riley has hit .306 ... with an OBP of .306. He's 23 for 75 with no walks (0%) and 22 Ks (29%).

He's gotta start taking his walks again or they're gonna slider-off-the-plate him to death.

Yep.

[Enscheff]

Riley probably isn't a top half of the order hitter. He is probably that 5-6 hole hitter who cleans up after the truly elite hitters (Acuna, Freeman, RHH Albies, 2020 Ozuna, Soler, etc) set the table, or maybe the 3 hitter if lining up "by the book".

That's still a pretty great outcome for a guy who had serious (as in worst in MLB) plate discipline issues in his first few hundred PAs.