Official 2022 Offseason Moves Thread

[GovClintonTyree]

I would say its less about his particular swing and more about Father Time being undefeated. No matter how much you love a swing/approach, I don't know that you ever want to bet on someone defying the aging curve.

Kinda you never know who will defy the aging curve and for how long. I remember my dad talking about Warren Spahn having won 23 games at age 42 and the next year completely losing it. Once they start diverging from the typical aging curve, you know you've got a unicorn, but for how long? Tell you this, as much as I love Max Scherzer and think he's a first ballot HoFer, the Mets will rue the day they gave him $130,000,000 to pitch for them at 38, 39, 40. Or, maybe he's the unicorn.

[striker42]

Yeah. Some players will age better than others, and sometimes there are traits you can pinpoint to make an educated guess on that front, but once you try to do some kind of micro-level analysis and speculate on how a given swing or approach will age, you're just engaged in unscientific wish-casting. Just assume the player in question is probably going to age like most players age.

Is Freeman going to be worth $30 million when he's 38? I can't imagine. Will he still be a particularly good player, if overpaid, when he's 38? Almost certainly not, though it's possible. If you go to six years (or, frankly, five years) for Freeman, the back end of the contract is going to hurt. It's just a matter of how much hurt you're willing to accept.

Yeah, trying to predict how a player will age is complex and something that can be reduced to stats yet. For example, you might think a player with a good eye is going to age better as he'll still be able to be selective at the plate and take walks even as his ability to hit declines. However, what is that batting eye based on? Does he have a good eye because he can recognize when a pitch is going to be out of the zone quickly or does he have tremendous bat speed that gives him a split second longer to recognize the pitch?

I've seen guys with pretty good eyes absolutely collapse once their bat speed starts to decline as they have to start "cheating" and swing earlier making them more vulnerable to breaking balls. I've seen other guys who keep their good batting eye until the day they retire.

About the only thing I've seen that gives me a hint (an not a terribly reliable hint) into how a hitter will age is how dependent is the hitter on bat speed. Bats will slow down with age. When you see a guy like Dan Uggla whose swing is vicious and almost entirely based on bat speed, I think it's a red flag that this player will age poorly as loss of bat speed has an outsized effect on that hitter.

Conversely, when you see a player like Chipper Jones whose success is based more on approach, eye, technique, and like, he's someone who might age more gracefully as skill will erode less quickly than physical ability.

As far as Freddie goes, I don't think he's on either extreme. I don't think he'll collapse quickly like Uggla but I don't see him being an All Star at 40 like Chipper.

[thewupk]

Kinda you never know who will defy the aging curve and for how long. I remember my dad talking about Warren Spahn having won 23 games at age 42 and the next year completely losing it. Once they start diverging from the typical aging curve, you know you've got a unicorn, but for how long? Tell you this, as much as I love Max Scherzer and think he's a first ballot HoFer, the Mets will rue the day they gave him $130,000,000 to pitch for them at 38, 39, 40. Or, maybe he's the unicorn.

True. Then, you have someone like Chipper who's body finally gave out before his hitting ability did at age 40.

[PawPawMaxwell]

strikers above post triggered something. Hasnt Freddie had eye issues in the past? And not anything to do with anything but the 7 straight Ks in the playoffs with late swings.

[The Chosen One]

Freddie has had the eye issues.

The elbow bone spurs.

[thewupk]

strikers above post triggered something. Hasnt Freddie had eye issues in the past? And not anything to do with anything but the 7 straight Ks in the playoffs with late swings.

I believe Freddie has had issues in the past when it was either very dry or windy and that irritated his eyes. But he had lasik prior to 2018 and I don't remember him having any issues with them since.

It's always dicey when getting your eyes operated on, especially for a MLB hitter. But nothing beats Maddux having lasik in 99 in the middle of the season and then allowing 1 run over 8 innings against Boston 2 days later. lmao. He was built different.

[thewupk]

Freddie has had the eye issues.

The elbow bone spurs.

Don't forget the wrist

[The Chosen One]

I believe Freddie has had issues in the past when it was either very dry or windy and that irritated his eyes. But he had lasik prior to 2018 and I don't remember him having any issues with them since.

It's always dicey when getting your eyes operated on, especially for a MLB hitter. But nothing beats Maddux having lasik in 99 in the middle of the season and then allowing 1 run over 8 innings against Boston 2 days later. lmao. He was built different.

Dry contacts.

[Enscheff]

strikers above post triggered something. Hasnt Freddie had eye issues in the past? And not anything to do with anything but the 7 straight Ks in the playoffs with late swings.

Freeman has had wrist and back issues as well. He also routinely plays through pain at much lower effectiveness, and then pressures others to do the same.

I hope nobody is fooled into thinking Freeman is some sort of unicorn when it comes to avoiding injury.

I suspect Freeman will age very similarly to how star players at 1B historically age, and plans should probably be made accordingly.

[50PoundHead]

Well, the guy suggested they must sign Freeman because Jenista is the only possible replacement for him. Pretty safe to assume he can be completely ignored.

LUGBAUER!

[PawPawMaxwell]

I heard Hessman is ready to move across the diamond.

[weso1]

Can anything happen till a deal gets worked out? Kind of a bummer to miss the winter meetings.

[Hudson2]

Can anything happen till a deal gets worked out? Kind of a bummer to miss the winter meetings.

Nope. Completely shut down

[bravesfanforlife88]

Can anything happen till a deal gets worked out? Kind of a bummer to miss the winter meetings.

If i'm not mistaken, teams can still talk trades but they cannot finalize the deal until the CBA is finished. So theoretically, once the CBA is signed, you could have a rush of trades announced. Will still have a lag in FA signings though because teams cannot talk to players or their agents.

[thewupk]

If i'm not mistaken, teams can still talk trades but they cannot finalize the deal until the CBA is finished. So theoretically, once the CBA is signed, you could have a rush of trades announced. Will still have a lag in FA signings though because teams cannot talk to players or their agents.

Yes, teams should be able to talk to each other. Trades usually require a physical with the new team so that's likely where the actual holdup is from a legal standpoint. And this only pertains to players in the MLBPA. So technically players in the minors can be traded freely without issue.

[GovClintonTyree]

True. Then, you have someone like Chipper who's body finally gave out before his hitting ability did at age 40.

He says he can still hit. He can't run.

[The Chosen One]

He says he can still hit. He can't run.

if the NL had a DH, Chipper probably hits for another 2 years and gets to 500hr.

Bonds could have DH’d until he was like 50.

[Enscheff]

Joe Don
12:28 What kind of package will it take to pry Olson from the As?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:29 From the sounds of things, it's gonna take a huge haul. Olson's awesome, so that makes sense. The one rumor I have is a 50 FV, a second who arguably is, and a third mid-level guy

For those wondering how that maps to the Braves...

Cristian Pache 55
Shea Langeliers 50
Drew Waters 45+
Michael Harris II 45+

Those 4 plus maybe Contreras, Touki and Wright fit into the "50 FV or arguably is" group of players.

I would hate to see Lango traded, but pick 2 of those 7 guys, then add in some other 40 FV filler, and that's the likely cost of Olson.

At this point I don't want to trade Pache, Lango, Harris, Touki or Wright, so a deal centered around Waters and Contreras would be pretty OK with me.

[GovClintonTyree]

if the NL had a DH, Chipper probably hits for another 2 years and gets to 500hr.

Bonds could have DH’d until he was like 50.

I think he'd (Chip) have to adjust. All these dudes throwing 98 now and he was swinging a telephone pole.

But I think he could do it.

[thewupk]

He says he can still hit. He can't run.

Even at 49 I suspect he could still post a league average OPS. But yeah....Brian McCann could likely outrun him now.