Official 2022 Offseason Moves Thread

[50PoundHead]

Which player would be easier to trade for, Reynolds or Olson?

Olson. I don't think Reynolds gets done without at least one major league player (likely a pitcher) in the deal.

[Carp]

Which player would be easier to trade for, Reynolds or Olson?

Common sense would suggest Olson should be much easier to acquire since he is closer to FA and doesn't play a premium position. But Pitt is known to make some pretty terrible trades, no matter who is in charge, so it's tough to say.

[Heyward]

I'm not 100% sure that's the case - but if it is, so be it. The hope - at least on Alex' end - is that this little pause in the process gives Freddie time to slow down and really think things through, and maybe even get a bit of advice from his ol' pal Chipper. Chipper (or someone else) makes him understand that IF the DH is in place after all this shakes out there's almost no chance they wouldn't go year to year with him when he's 37/38 years old if he still has anything left and still wants to play - he'd be the next Nelly Cruz. If he's still capable of hitting .290 with 25 bombs five years from now, I feel sure that they'd be happy to give him $15-$20 million on one year deals as long as he wants to hang around. Freddie has to understand his "hometown discount" has to come in the form of years, not dollars. The revenues are there to meet his AAV requirement, and if his representatives can't see the reason a mid-market team can't afford to be locked into $30 million for a 38 year old 1B, he needs new agents...

Age 38 seasons for HOF 1Bs:
Pujols - 117 games, .245/.289/.411, 19 HRs, 88 wRC+, -0.3 fWAR
Cabrera - 130 games, .256/.316/.386, 15 HRs, 92 wRC+, -0.7 fWAR

That's just ugly. If Freddie ages like Cruz and is still hitting 5 years from now, it would be a no-brainer to throw some money at him to hang around, but we can't know that today. Miggy's nosedive started when he was 34, Pujols' was at 35. At 5/$150 million you're already gambling that he lasts 2 years longer than either of them did.

Enscheff pointed out the best middle-ground for both sides a while back (the numbers may have been different, but the structure would be the way to go) - 3 years/$100 million with 3 one-year team options at $30 million would give him guaranteed money through the same age Pujols fell off a cliff, allow him to finish here, protect the team in case he gets hurt or drastically declines, AND satisfies the Union because they get another $30 million/year player who also took the highest bid (if NY/LA/Boston are at 6 years/$180 million, the total dollars he COULD make if he makes it to the end of the deal is higher in Atlanta).

Unfortunately there's almost no chance of making that deal.

Scheff's price is ideal but there's zero chance Freddie takes that. It's gotta be 5 or 6 years, and you just hope he doesnt age like past players.

[50PoundHead]

Common sense would suggest Olson should be much easier to acquire since he is closer to FA and doesn't play a premium position. But Pitt is known to make some pretty terrible trades, no matter who is in charge, so it's tough to say.

I would agree that when Harrington was involved, the Pirates made a string of short-sighted deals with the Archer deal being one of the all-time dumbest moves ever made by a team (it laps the the Braves' trade for Len Barker). I don't see that happening with Cherington. I keep saying it (and I could be dead wrong), but given the Pirates' current stable of prospects, they aren't that far away. I don't think they trade Reynolds unless they get major league pitching in return (and that's probably not Wright or Toussaint).

[ixiXSolidXixi]

I think Braves don’t want to pay 30 millions to any player. What’s the Braves biggest contract ever?

I think pay 25 millions a year for a few extra years is a easier for any team because they may have extra cash to build a team.

Braves should offer Freeman 25 a year will different clause. Example: MVP extra million, All star $500,000, World Series MVP extra million, Batting title extra million.

We need players that still want to win.

[PawPawMaxwell]

$30M will be a whole lot different in 2027 than it will in 2022.

[Southcack77]

I think Solid is saying offer Olson, 8/200. He'd be 35 when at the end of that deal, since Olson is only 27 now. AA screwed the pooch on the Freeman deal, he could have probably had him at 5 years, 140 million or so before the season. Now he probably has no choice but to go to 6 years or see him elsewhere.

Not sure why you think he'd have taken less before.

[Southcack77]

I would agree that when Harrington was involved, the Pirates made a string of short-sighted deals with the Archer deal being one of the all-time dumbest moves ever made by a team (it laps the the Braves' trade for Len Barker). I don't see that happening with Cherington. I keep saying it (and I could be dead wrong), but given the Pirates' current stable of prospects, they aren't that far away. I don't think they trade Reynolds unless they get major league pitching in return (and that's probably not Wright or Toussaint).

If they're trading their best player who has 4 years of control why are they getting MLB ready pitching?

Not sure what about them screams on the brink of contention.

[50PoundHead]

If they're trading their best player who has 4 years of control why are they getting MLB ready pitching?

Not sure what about them screams on the brink of contention.

Because they need pitching more than anything. I think Anderson (who is under a similar level of control as Reynolds) and Pache would come close to getting a Reynolds deal done. You could try Soroka, Pache, and Contreras and a throw-in. I doubt something like Pache, Contreras, Wright, and Tarnok even merits the Pirates picking up the phone.

I've never said the Pirates are on the brink of contention (which would insinuate 2022 or 2023), but they are closer than a lot of people think and I think they will be contenders while Reynolds is under team control. I think that's where those here who believe we have the parts to obtain Reynolds get it wrong.

[Enscheff]

I think Braves don’t want to pay 30 millions to any player. What’s the Braves biggest contract ever?

I think pay 25 millions a year for a few extra years is a easier for any team because they may have extra cash to build a team.

Braves should offer Freeman 25 a year will different clause. Example: MVP extra million, All star $500,000, World Series MVP extra million, Batting title extra million.

We need players that still want to win.

Because paying $30M in 2022 for a 5 win player is a much better way to build a consistent winner than paying $25M for a 1 win player in 2027. An extra $5M per year has never tanked a roster, but paying an extra $25M has forced several rebuilds.

And we’ve literally just seen proof that simply getting to the playoffs is the best way to win a title.

[ixiXSolidXixi]

Because paying $30M in 2022 for a 5 win player is a much better way to build a consistent winner than paying $25M for a 1 win player in 2027. An extra $5M per year has never tanked a roster, but paying an extra $25M has forced several rebuilds.

And we’ve literally just seen proof that simply getting to the playoffs is the best way to win a title.

I think Freeman is a special player! Votto did 3.5 war with 38 years and Yuli Gurriel 3.7 war with 37 years and won batting title.
Freeman is a player that looks in excellent shape. Not like Albert Pujols or Miguel Cabrera.

[clvclv]

Because they need pitching more than anything. I think Anderson (who is under a similar level of control as Reynolds) and Pache would come close to getting a Reynolds deal done. You could try Soroka, Pache, and Contreras and a throw-in. I doubt something like Pache, Contreras, Wright, and Tarnok even merits the Pirates picking up the phone.

I've never said the Pirates are on the brink of contention (which would insinuate 2022 or 2023), but they are closer than a lot of people think and I think they will be contenders while Reynolds is under team control. I think that's where those here who believe we have the parts to obtain Reynolds get it wrong.

There's an in-between this leaves out IMO.

If I'm 2-3 years away from being relevant, I'm personally not interested in adding MLB pitching on any level. All of their front-line talent is about two years away - Davis, Priester, and Gonzales have only competed at the Hi-A level so far. I could see making the point that Davis and Gonzales could be ready at some point in 2023 since they were college guys, but rushing them just so they have a chance to play an extra year with Reynolds could turn out to be be a bad idea as well. I don't think a Pache, Langeliers, Harris, Muller or Davidson, and Strider or Tarnok offer would get accepted, but follow the logic.

They signed Roberto Perez, so they have the Perez "brothers" in place behind the plate meaning Langeliers can spend the entire season in AAA and Davis can spend the whole year in AA unless they force their way into midseason promotions. Langeliers takes over when Roberto's gone next season, with the two studs splitting time 50/50 no later than 2024 - this should keep both much healthier and productive, and they'd be set back there for at least those next 5 years.

They already had to add Swaggerty to their 40-Man, so he and Pache compete for the CF job in camp to see who takes over for them this season with the other getting more work (and saving service-time) in AAA to start the year. Whichever one loses could feasibly be kept down for all of 2022 since they've also already started Oliva's clock and he can fake it in CF. Harris shifts to LF and has a full season in AA (and happily for him, NOT in Mississippi) and gets a promotion if his power starts to come.

Gonzales gets the entire season in AA if he needs it and is ready to take over at 2B full-time no later than 2024.

Strider/Tarnok and Muller/Davidson all have options left, so they can all spend another year in AAA trying to tighten things up. Mlodzinski would join whichever pair of them they chose there doing the same while they can slow-play Priester and give him a full season in AA if they need to.

They finally move Cruz off of SS now that they have Peguero, and Cruz spends the year learning to play RF beside of whichever of Pache or Swaggerty is in AAA. He's been an amazing story, but I don't think I'm alone in thinking there's just no way a 6'7" guy stays in the middle infield at the end of the day.

When 2024 arrives every one of those guys should be ready to join Hayes, and they'd still have Chavis as a 1B/DH type and Tucker as a super-utility guy. They should be able to slot Muller/Davidson, Strider/Tarnok, and Mlodzinski into the rotation (with Zach Thompson and Yoansy Contreras) and they'd have Priester as a potential mid 2024 addition. The only places they'd need to spend money would be the easiest holes to fill - 1B/DH and MOR/BOR veteran pitching, and they should have high picks in the 2022 and 2023 drafts to add high-upside arms with.

[Southcack77]

Because they need pitching more than anything. I think Anderson (who is under a similar level of control as Reynolds) and Pache would come close to getting a Reynolds deal done. You could try Soroka, Pache, and Contreras and a throw-in. I doubt something like Pache, Contreras, Wright, and Tarnok even merits the Pirates picking up the phone.

I've never said the Pirates are on the brink of contention (which would insinuate 2022 or 2023), but they are closer than a lot of people think and I think they will be contenders while Reynolds is under team control. I think that's where those here who believe we have the parts to obtain Reynolds get it wrong.

Anderson will be expensive and nearing the end of his control by the time the Pirates are over .500.

Three years is about as early as it's possible and most likely it will be longer. They really don't have great pieces except Reynolds. They don't have the resources to acquire everything they need.

It's hard to get back what you should for players with lots of control which I why I imagine they don't get moved for the most part. Probably can get same package or better at deadline or perhaps next year as you can now. You can do it now to minimize the risk, but I think most are going to wait for the deal they like to come to them and accept that risk.

[50PoundHead]

There's an in-between this leaves out IMO.

If I'm 2-3 years away from being relevant, I'm personally not interested in adding MLB pitching on any level. All of their front-line talent is about two years away - Davis, Priester, and Gonzales have only competed at the Hi-A level so far. I could see making the point that Davis and Gonzales could be ready at some point in 2023 since they were college guys, but rushing them just so they have a chance to play an extra year with Reynolds could turn out to be be a bad idea as well. I don't think a Pache, Langeliers, Harris, Muller or Davidson, and Strider or Tarnok offer would get accepted, but follow the logic.

They signed Roberto Perez, so they have the Perez "brothers" in place behind the plate meaning Langeliers can spend the entire season in AAA and Davis can spend the whole year in AA unless they force their way into midseason promotions. Langeliers takes over when Roberto's gone next season, with the two studs splitting time 50/50 no later than 2024 - this should keep both much healthier and productive, and they'd be set back there for at least those next 5 years.

They already had to add Swaggerty to their 40-Man, so he and Pache compete for the CF job in camp to see who takes over for them this season with the other getting more work (and saving service-time) in AAA to start the year. Whichever one loses could feasibly be kept down for all of 2022 since they've also already started Oliva's clock and he can fake it in CF. Harris shifts to LF and has a full season in AA (and happily for him, NOT in Mississippi) and gets a promotion if his power starts to come.

Gonzales gets the entire season in AA if he needs it and is ready to take over at 2B full-time no later than 2024.

Strider/Tarnok and Muller/Davidson all have options left, so they can all spend another year in AAA trying to tighten things up. Mlodzinski would join whichever pair of them they chose there doing the same while they can slow-play Priester and give him a full season in AA if they need to.

They finally move Cruz off of SS now that they have Peguero, and Cruz spends the year learning to play RF beside of whichever of Pache or Swaggerty is in AAA. He's been an amazing story, but I don't think I'm alone in thinking there's just no way a 6'7" guy stays in the middle infield at the end of the day.

When 2024 arrives every one of those guys should be ready to join Hayes, and they'd still have Chavis as a 1B/DH type and Tucker as a super-utility guy. They should be able to slot Muller/Davidson, Strider/Tarnok, and Mlodzinski into the rotation (with Zach Thompson and Yoansy Contreras) and they'd have Priester as a potential mid 2024 addition. The only places they'd need to spend money would be the easiest holes to fill - 1B/DH and MOR/BOR veteran pitching, and they should have high picks in the 2022 and 2023 drafts to add high-upside arms with.

I doubt any of the pitchers you mention even pique the Pirates' interest, options or not and you're trading an All-Star caliber CF for a guy who splits time at C and someone who did a world-class faceplant in 2021 in CF.

Pirates are in a similar position to where the Braves were 30+ years ago with Dale Murphy (although Reynolds and Murphy differ greatly in age for this comparison). The Mets offered Dykstra and Howard Johnson straight up, but Cox insisted David West be part of the deal or no dice (whether as a substitute for either Dykstra or Howard or as an addition has never been completely clear). Cox also backed away from a proposed deal with the Padres in which Sandy Alomar, Jr., would have been the centerpiece coming to the Braves (Shane Mack and Shawn Abner also mentioned as filler). Similarity is that both the Braves of that era and the Pirates now were/are building solid minor league systems. Pirates could clearly err if they look away from a solid deal, but I don't see what you've described as being solid.

[Enscheff]

I think Freeman is a special player! Votto did 3.5 war with 38 years and Yuli Gurriel 3.7 war with 37 years and won batting title.
Freeman is a player that looks in excellent shape. Not like Albert Pujols or Miguel Cabrera.

I mean yeah, it’s a reasonable opinion that Freeman will age better than guys like Pujols and Miggy.

Problem is, there is zero data that differentiates between guys who age well and guys who don’t, so your opinion is based on nothing but your fandom of Freeman and speculation about body types. I’ve made a similarly ignorant decision about Riley aging poorly, and I admit it’s an opinion with no real facts to back it up.

So it is possible the Braves have access to some type of data we don’t know about that suggests Freeman will age better than the typical 1B. Until I have access to such data, my opinion will remain that giving him 5+ years of elite salary is a bad idea.

[msstate7]

I think we sign FF

[clvclv]

I doubt any of the pitchers you mention even pique the Pirates' interest, options or not and you're trading an All-Star caliber CF for a guy who splits time at C and someone who did a world-class faceplant in 2021 in CF.

Pirates are in a similar position to where the Braves were 30+ years ago with Dale Murphy (although Reynolds and Murphy differ greatly in age for this comparison). The Mets offered Dykstra and Howard Johnson straight up, but Cox insisted David West be part of the deal or no dice (whether as a substitute for either Dykstra or Howard or as an addition has never been completely clear). Cox also backed away from a proposed deal with the Padres in which Sandy Alomar, Jr., would have been the centerpiece coming to the Braves (Shane Mack and Shawn Abner also mentioned as filler). Similarity is that both the Braves of that era and the Pirates now were/are building solid minor league systems. Pirates could clearly err if they look away from a solid deal, but I don't see what you've described as being solid.

I mentioned not thinking that's enough - unless they don't get the higher ask they currently have. It would be the type of fallback offer someone might take when they realize there's simply no one out there willing to meet their asking price and they realize that their guys won't be ready until they only have two years of control left over Reynolds. It's perfectly reasonable to think they'd still be able to get a haul for him at that point too, but doing so runs them the risk that he regresses with no one around him and other teams not pitching to him (they're obviously not going to spend much money to go get him some help) or he suffers a fairly significant injury and misses a full season (Acuna). The chances his value takes a significant hit before they could still trade him with a couple years of control left are admittedly slim, but they're not non-existent either.

I don't think they'd take it, but we've seen that type of deal happen before - we don't know whether other teams believe Pache is the guy we saw the first month of the season in Atlanta after being rushed or the guy we saw the last two months of the year in Gwinnett. We also don't yet know what other teams think of Harris since he didn't really take off until the latter part of the season.

TBH, I think that type of package might represent a pretty decent offer for Mullins instead.

[Southcack77]

I mean yeah, it’s a reasonable opinion that Freeman will age better than guys like Pujols and Miggy.

Problem is, there is zero data that differentiates between guys who age well and guys who don’t, so your opinion is based on nothing but your fandom of Freeman and speculation about body types. I’ve made a similarly ignorant decision about Riley aging poorly, and I admit it’s an opinion with no real facts to back it up.

So it is possible the Braves have access to some type of data we don’t know about that suggests Freeman will age better than the typical 1B. Until I have access to such data, my opinion will remain that giving him 5+ years of elite salary is a bad idea.

Freddy's longevity likely comes down to injury and you just can't predict that.

[The Chosen One]

Freddy's longevity likely comes down to injury and you just can't predict that.

He's already dealt with some injuries already, so that's not a good indicator.

And the fact he's playing one of the top 3 positions where bodies break down (CF and C being the others), then it's certainly not a recipe for success.

[ixiXSolidXixi]

If we are trading for Matt Olson they better have a extension for him. I don’t want to give the few players we have left.