Official 2022 Offseason Moves Thread

[Enscheff]

Andruw- after disastrous seasons in ATL and LAD- had a 132 wRC+ with the Yankees in one of his last seasons. He was effectively 2021 ATL Jorge Soler for the Yankees in 2011. Not his typical self, but not exactly an amputee either.

Andruw produced ~64 WAR through his age 30 season. He produced ~3 WAR for the rest of his life. His precipitous drop in production after age 30 is unprecedented in the history of the game.

So yes, he declined more like an amputee than like an aging athlete.

[McCann'sCans]

Andruw produced ~64 WAR through his age 30 season. He produced ~3 WAR for the rest of his life. His precipitous drop in production after age 30 is unprecedented in the history of the game.

So yes, he declined more like an amputee than like an aging athlete.

Definitely a huge decline. Can't say I know enough about the record books to know if it is unprecedented, but I'll take your word for it. I just didn't realize until I looked it up today that he even had a couple of 1.4/1.5 win seasons after Atlanta. I thought he as just annually a negative WAR player the rest of his career.

[zitothebrave]

I've always thought it was pretty simplistic to blame Andruw's sudden decline on his weight gain. From his first year as a full-time starter (1997), he was basically an everyday, every inning center fielder -- from 1997 to 2007, the fewest games played were 153. From 1999 to 2001, he played 162, 161 and 161 games. I believe he played every inning of every game in 1999. He did all of this while playing center field and ranging greater distances than just about any other center fielder in the game. He threw his body around on a regular basis, while playing about 30 games a season on the concrete turf at Veteran's Stadium in Philadelphia and at Olympic Stadium in Montreal. All of this likely contributed in some way to his sudden decline -- the Braves rode him hard, and that has consequences, even for position players.

Would all of that have been easier if he had stayed a svelte 180 pounds his entire career? Sure. We don't know what Andruw's career looks like in the parallel universe where he never gains weight. But the story of Andruw's career is more complicated and nuanced than "ha ha fatty fall down."

Andruw is also physically larger. Griffey had similar issues. He was also Physically larger. His body also broke down post 30. Both of them started young and played a lot of innings in CF.

[McCann'sCans]

Andruw produced ~64 WAR through his age 30 season. He produced ~3 WAR for the rest of his life. His precipitous drop in production after age 30 is unprecedented in the history of the game.

So yes, he declined more like an amputee than like an aging athlete.

The above post gives some good inspiration for the 'unprecedentedness' of Andruw's fall. Griffey posted 74 FG WAR through his age 30 season and 3.7 FG WAR over the following decade. He too seems to have been an amputee, teams just kept running him out there for an extra 5 or 6 years.

For the record, not trying to be argumentative I was just genuinely curious how unprecedented Andruw's collapse was and didn't have the energy to look up every player to confirm- Griffey seems to be a good case that it wasn't unprecedented.

[clvclv]

Just to add a little fuel to the Freeman fire...

If Freddie is brought back and produces at his career average results for 7 more years (regardless of where he plays) he'd wind up with...

2,943 hits
467 HRs
1,627 RBI
1,676 Runs

We all know how unlikely it is that he performs at that level AS A 1B through the end of that deal, but he'd be a year younger than this year's only HOF inductee was when he retired if he hung around as a DH that long (and sticking around until he was 40 would arguably make up the ground if he doesn't quite keep up with his career averages). He'd arguably wind up having a better case for election than Big Papi did with his 2,472 hits, 541 HRs, 1,768 RBI, and 1,419 runs - especially when you include his defense (for however much longer it lasts).

Given the financial issues that the Braves are faced with in today's market, there's absolutely a chance that Freeman could wind up being the last player to spend his entire career as a Brave to get elected to the HOF (or for a LONG time at least) - especially if you believe (like many do) that Acuna isn't going to play his entire career here.

Just sayin.

[Enscheff]

The above post gives some good inspiration for the 'unprecedentedness' of Andruw's fall. Griffey posted 74 FG WAR through his age 30 season and 3.7 FG WAR over the following decade. He too seems to have been an amputee, teams just kept running him out there for an extra 5 or 6 years.

For the record, not trying to be argumentative I was just genuinely curious how unprecedented Andruw's collapse was and didn't have the energy to look up every player to confirm- Griffey seems to be a good case that it wasn't unprecedented.

Good point about Griff. He stuck around until he was 40 as a pretty bad overall player in terms of WAR, but since defense was the reason for those poor numbers they don’t seem to be held against him.

[striker42]

Andruw produced ~64 WAR through his age 30 season. He produced ~3 WAR for the rest of his life. His precipitous drop in production after age 30 is unprecedented in the history of the game.

So yes, he declined more like an amputee than like an aging athlete.

Andruw's total WAR before 30 was aided by the fact that he was a teenager when he made it to the majors.

Early 30's collapses happen even for great players. Look at Dale Murphy. Murphy had 39.5 WAR through his age 31 season and 5 WAR after. Murphy also didn't post a positive WAR until he was 23. Andruw had 17.6 WAR before his age 23 season.

[zitothebrave]

Good point about Griff. He stuck around until he was 40 as a pretty bad overall player in terms of WAR, but since defense was the reason for those poor numbers they don’t seem to be held against him.

That and Griffey was much better until he was 30. 76.2 vs. 61 for Andruw. If Andruw was as great as Griffey he would be in the Hall no doubt instead of this weird place he's at now.

What's buckwild to me is people accuse him of roids when he broke down so hard in his 30s. Unlike say David Ortiz. who had almost 90extra base hits as a 40 year old. Certainly not a cheater.

[zitothebrave]

Andruw's total WAR before 30 was aided by the fact that he was a teenager when he made it to the majors.

Early 30's collapses happen even for great players. Look at Dale Murphy. Murphy had 39.5 WAR through his age 31 season and 5 WAR after. Murphy also didn't post a positive WAR until he was 23. Andruw had 17.6 WAR before his age 23 season.

Griffey was in the same boat. Griffey and Andruw ran a lot and did a lot of running on cement too as Griffey patrolled the Kingdome. Andruw got to play road games at Veteran's Stadium, Olympic Stadium, etc.

Would be interesting to see about longevity in fielders now that Astroturf is basically gone and every baseball team basically uses grass or more advanced turf now that's less rough on the body.

[msstate7]

[CyYoung31]

Braves have the richest owners in baseball.

[thewupk]

Braves have the richest owners in baseball.

cool story bro

[clvclv]

cool story bro

Not sure just how "cool" that is - pretty embarrassing actually. The richest ownership group (by leaps and bounds) coming off an infusion of revenue following a Championship is haggling with the face of its franchise over $30 million?

As much as you want AA to pinch every penny possible, this one has been a no-brainer since Day One. Signing "impact players" and icons has always been (and remains) an ownership-level decision rather than something left up to Team Presidents and GMs. That might be the only thing I agree with Borass about. The decision about how you want your franchise to be perceived - by both players you might hope to sign one day AND fans - has to be made by the people who will ultimately be around to be affected by signing the face of their franchise regardless of whether that ends up being positively or negatively. Alex is there to oversee the day-to-day and even year-to-year operation of the club, and guys like him are signed to short-term contracts because no ownership group is going to allow them to make decisions that could significantly hurt the value of the franchise in the long run. The decisions about who ownership wants to be the first person you think of when you think of the organization isn't (and shouldn't be) his. This is the player you want to represent the franchise in official capacities (league special events, large charity events, important interviews, etc.) as well as someone you feel will significantly affect merchandise and ticket sales. You can bet your sweet *ss that the decisions to sign Tatis, Betts, Lindor, Harper, Cole, Rendon, Strasburg, and Seager and to trade for Stanton weren't left up to Preller, Cashman, Rizzo, etc. - that's why Borass doesn't typically bother negotiating with them when it comes to franchise players.

The fact that Liberty has allowed this situation to drag on this long is impossible to describe as anything other than embarrassing. People in Alex' position should be consulted when it comes to signing someone like Freeman, but that's about as far as that should go.

[msstate7]

Not sure just how "cool" that is - pretty embarrassing actually. The richest ownership group (by leaps and bounds) coming off an infusion of revenue following a Championship is haggling with the face of its franchise over $30 million?

As much as you want AA to pinch every penny possible, this one has been a no-brainer since Day One. Signing "impact players" and icons has always been (and remains) an ownership-level decision rather than something left up to Team Presidents and GMs. That might be the only thing I agree with Borass about. The decision about how you want your franchise to be perceived - by both players you might hope to sign one day AND fans - has to be made by the people who will ultimately be around to be affected by signing the face of their franchise regardless of whether that ends up being positively or negatively. Alex is there to oversee the day-to-day and even year-to-year operation of the club, and guys like him are signed to short-term contracts because no ownership group is going to allow them to make decisions that could significantly hurt the value of the franchise in the long run. The decisions about who ownership wants to be the first person you think of when you think of the organization isn't (and shouldn't be) his. This is the player you want to represent the franchise in official capacities (league special events, large charity events, important interviews, etc.) as well as someone you feel will significantly affect merchandise and ticket sales. You can bet your sweet *ss that the decisions to sign Tatis, Betts, Lindor, Harper, Cole, Rendon, Strasburg, and Seager and to trade for Stanton weren't left up to Preller, Cashman, Rizzo, etc. - that's why Borass doesn't typically bother negotiating with them when it comes to franchise players.

The fact that Liberty has allowed this situation to drag on this long is impossible to describe as anything other than embarrassing.

Is liberty so rich bc of the braves or other endeavors?

[clvclv]

Is liberty so rich bc of the braves or other endeavors?

Others certainly - their holdings include Live Nation Entertainment, Formula 1, and Sirius/XM - but they're not intermingled. The value of the Braves franchise alone has increased by $1.475 billion since Liberty purchased it in 2007.

$30 million is certainly not worth this kind of distraction coming off of a Title - especially when the goal is to continue to increase the value of the franchise. This mess can only slow that down.

[clvclv]

A way outside the box thought about CF...

I wouldn't personally have thought the Braves would have ANY interest in Kiermaier, but I wonder if the two teams couldn't get together on a deal that would fill holes for both of them. Josh Lowe, Vidal Brujan, and Xavier Edwards could all be considered "ready" (by Tampa Bay standards anyway), and according to the MLBTR blurb this morning they're looking for a RH bat capable of sharing time at 1B with Ji-Man Choi.

"Could a Kiermaier trade involve the Rays acquiring a right-handed bat? Topkin writes that Tampa’s “top post-lockout priority seems to be a right-handed hitter who can play first base, and not necessarily a proven big-leaguer.” Yandy Diaz currently sits as the right-handed hitting side of the first base platoon with Ji-Man Choi, though with Diaz also needed at third base, obtaining another first base-capable player would only add to the roster depth. Even if that player is lacking in experience, that hasn’t stopped the Rays in the past — Diaz himself had only 299 Major League plate appearances to his name when Tampa Bay acquired him from Cleveland in the 2018-19 offseason."

Assuming AA has given up on Pache and is interested in someone like Kiermaier as a placeholder until Harris is potentially ready in 2023, I wonder if Tampa would be interested in a package of Contreras and a Cusick/Elder/Estes level arm for Kiermaier and Taylor Walls?

Kiermaier would provide a LH bat in CF, allowing Duvall to play LF and making Ozuna a full-time DH. Walls is a switch-hitting defensive wizard that would be the Adrianza replacement and would provide competition for Arcia/Shewmake as Dansby's replacement in 2023 (he might even be the favorite to do that IMO). Contreras would be the exact type of guy Tampa likes - capable of playing multiple positions in a pinch - and he could spend time at 1B this year and potentially replace Zunino on the cheap in 2023.

I'd really hate to use Contreras in a deal for a rental player, but if you could add someone like Walls too it just might be worth it.

[JohnBoy]

How about not re-signing Freddie and replace him with Soler at 1B for a 2-3 year stint and replace Dansby with Correa on a long-term deal for SS? The draft pick for Freddie and the small return for 1 year of Dansby would strengthen the farm. I think I would rather have Correa for 10 years than Freddie for 6.

[PawPawMaxwell]

Not entirely a bad thought but what would the Correa signing do to Acuna and Albies egos?

[thewupk]

Not sure just how "cool" that is - pretty embarrassing actually. The richest ownership group (by leaps and bounds) coming off an infusion of revenue following a Championship is haggling with the face of its franchise over $30 million?

As much as you want AA to pinch every penny possible, this one has been a no-brainer since Day One. Signing "impact players" and icons has always been (and remains) an ownership-level decision rather than something left up to Team Presidents and GMs. That might be the only thing I agree with Borass about. The decision about how you want your franchise to be perceived - by both players you might hope to sign one day AND fans - has to be made by the people who will ultimately be around to be affected by signing the face of their franchise regardless of whether that ends up being positively or negatively. Alex is there to oversee the day-to-day and even year-to-year operation of the club, and guys like him are signed to short-term contracts because no ownership group is going to allow them to make decisions that could significantly hurt the value of the franchise in the long run. The decisions about who ownership wants to be the first person you think of when you think of the organization isn't (and shouldn't be) his. This is the player you want to represent the franchise in official capacities (league special events, large charity events, important interviews, etc.) as well as someone you feel will significantly affect merchandise and ticket sales. You can bet your sweet *ss that the decisions to sign Tatis, Betts, Lindor, Harper, Cole, Rendon, Strasburg, and Seager and to trade for Stanton weren't left up to Preller, Cashman, Rizzo, etc. - that's why Borass doesn't typically bother negotiating with them when it comes to franchise players.

The fact that Liberty has allowed this situation to drag on this long is impossible to describe as anything other than embarrassing. People in Alex' position should be consulted when it comes to signing someone like Freeman, but that's about as far as that should go.

Not sure how many times this needs to be brought up. It doesn't matter how rich Liberty Media is. As ownership, they aren't getting involved with the operation of the team. They aren't going to infuse the team with cash and they aren't going to strip the payroll to nothing. The Braves operate independently. They spend what they make and project to make. Nothing more and nothing less. Personally, I don't have a problem with how that is handled.

[CyYoung31]

Not sure how many times this needs to be brought up. It doesn't matter how rich Liberty Media is. As ownership, they aren't getting involved with the operation of the team. They aren't going to infuse the team with cash and they aren't going to strip the payroll to nothing. The Braves operate independently. They spend what they make and project to make. Nothing more and nothing less. Personally, I don't have a problem with how that is handled.

You’re just a hater.