Official 2022 Offseason Moves Thread

[50PoundHead]

Again an article that I would love to read, but I'm not sure why we'd assume that an arbitrator, I assume chosen for experience in those kinds of arbitrations, would be unable to grasp deeper analysis.

I will say it is probably a plus that precedent makes things somewhat predictable so I can see where the analysis that throws that out of whack might not be received. Still I bet it shifts over time.

I think the challenge with Duvall is on a limited analysis, he looks like he's a lot better player than when the analysis goes deeper. I'm just spitballing when it comes my comments about an arbitrator. I just know they've done weird things in the past and arbitration is never that much fun for either side.

[Enscheff]

And there are some that should and they would be the ones overvaluing Duvall. I'm more worried about the arbitrator than the rest of baseball. Anthopoulos knows what he's doing and if he does the same thing here as last off-season, I'm fine with it.

Nobody is letting Duvall hit arbitration, just like they didn't let him this time last year.

Duvall signed for $5M a year ago. He is worth roughly that now.

So if the decision is Duvall for $4M ($3M buyout vs $7M option), then the answer might be yes. Would Duvall turn down $7M? I doubt it, but it he did, no worries.

Considering all the possible holes he can fill, I'm actually leaning towards picking up his option.

[50PoundHead]

The odds that AA or any gm having what happened this past deadline are slim to none. Counting on him to do that again and it payoff the way it did is basically impossible.

What happened this deadline was an anomaly to some extent. All four OFs were upgrades from what we had, but they could have fizzled either individually or collectively. Talented guys a couple of whom got really hot. Better yet, we got them for next to nothing.

[50PoundHead]

Nobody is letting Duvall hit arbitration, just like they didn't let him this time last year.

Duvall signed for $5M a year ago. He is worth roughly that now.

So if the decision is Duvall for $4M ($3M buyout vs $7M option), then the answer might be yes. Would Duvall turn down $7M? I doubt it, but it he did, no worries.

Considering all the possible holes he can fill, I'm actually leaning towards picking up his option.

If that's the case, Duvall should be riding the short bus and his agent should be in the seat next to him.

[Hudson2]

What happened this deadline was an anomaly to some extent. All four OFs were upgrades from what we had, but they could have fizzled either individually or collectively. Talented guys a couple of whom got really hot. Better yet, we got them for next to nothing.

Yep. And the fact that all 4 produced to the level they did at the time they did was like winning the power ball 4 times in a row. It’ll never happen again like that. That’s why I said you can’t hope to stagger to the trade deadline and pull off what we just did.

[PawPawMaxwell]

I would still like to know why RBI are meaningless stats????????

[thewupk]

I would still like to know why RBI are meaningless stats????????

Like Wins for pitchers. It's dependent on what other players on the team do. Doesn't come close to evaluating a players hitting ability.

[thethe]

An interesting question is if people believe pitchers pitch differently with runners on base.

[chop2chip]

An interesting question is if people believe pitchers pitch differently with runners on base.

I’m sure the results vary by pitcher, but going from the wind up to stretch isn’t negligible.

[PawPawMaxwell]

Like Wins for pitchers. It's dependent on what other players on the team do. Doesn't come close to evaluating a players hitting ability.

Oh I understand that someone has to be on base in front of the hitter but why then is a hitter evaluated on runs scored and runs driven in. It is stated that a player who drives in 100 and scores 100 is very successful.
Take the Braves this year, would we as fans been less stressed if they bottom 4 of our daily lineup produced even a few RBI?
Now back to my original intent. My thoughts are that Duvall will not be a Brave next year unless AA comes up with a multi year deal. That simple. With coming of 15 new DHs and teams like the WhiteSox, Cleveland and the Rangers all with weak OFs, low scoring teams, and empty seats Im sure some one will offer Duvall a multiyear, low dollar by todays standards contract. Thats all.

[50PoundHead]

I’m sure the results vary by pitcher, but going from the wind up to stretch isn’t negligible.

Pitching independent to a great degree, but the defensive alignment changes with men on base as well.

[thethe]

I’m sure the results vary by pitcher, but going from the wind up to stretch isn’t negligible.

Agreed - The natural follow-up to this question is then do we have to look at batters performance with RISP differently than bases empty?

[bravesfanforlife88]

Kevin Pillar declined his option with the Mets. Honestly wouldn't mind someone like him as an early pick up. Should be able to sign for ~$1.5m as a bench bat and early season fill in. Sounds like Acuna expects to be back in May

[OcalaBrave]

Duvall coming back makes sense because:
1. Ideally you'd have Pache earn his way to ATL in April. Handing it to him this year was a disaster. Thus, the Braves need someone that can hold down CF temporarily.
2. Once Pache is up, the Braves need that CF to be able to transition to a corner OF/DH/4th outfielder role.
3. The Braves will want that CF to be someone that will not upset team chemistry.

The CF FA list is pretty thin when you are trying to fill that shopping list. So thin in fact, I think the braves should consider giving Duvall a multi-year deal to keep the first year, when they need him, reasonable.

[thewupk]

Agreed - The natural follow-up to this question is then do we have to look at batters performance with RISP differently than bases empty?

No because it's not a repeatable skill. If you want to assign some sort of value for a given season like Duvall's 2021 where he excelled wit RISP I wouldn't have much of an issue with that. Similar to how those hitters who are BABIP fortunate for a given year have a higher value than they normally would. But it's not something to look at when predicting value.

[thethe]

No because it's not a repeatable skill. If you want to assign some sort of value for a given season like Duvall's 2021 where he excelled wit RISP I wouldn't have much of an issue with that. Similar to how those hitters who are BABIP fortunate for a given year have a higher value than they normally would. But it's not something to look at when predicting value.

How is it determined that its not a repeatable skill though?

What is it compared against to say its just normal variation?

I'm not necessarily taking the position that it is its own unique skill set but to discount it altogether seems a bit extreme for me.

[thewupk]

Oh I understand that someone has to be on base in front of the hitter but why then is a hitter evaluated on runs scored and runs driven in. It is stated that a player who drives in 100 and scores 100 is very successful.
Take the Braves this year, would we as fans been less stressed if they bottom 4 of our daily lineup produced even a few RBI?
Now back to my original intent. My thoughts are that Duvall will not be a Brave next year unless AA comes up with a multi year deal. That simple. With coming of 15 new DHs and teams like the WhiteSox, Cleveland and the Rangers all with weak OFs, low scoring teams, and empty seats Im sure some one will offer Duvall a multiyear, low dollar by todays standards contract. Thats all.

But Modern FO's don't evaluate on this anymore. And you will see that when Duvall signs a contract for 2022. He lead the NL in RBI. He's going to get paid as a below average player.

[McCann'sCans]

How is it determined that its not a repeatable skill though?

What is it compared against to say its just normal variation?

I'm not necessarily taking the position that it is its own unique skill set but to discount it altogether seems a bit extreme for me.

I would agree. It feels like it has to be somewhere in between normal sample size variation and completely repeatable skill. It would seem to me that there might be certain players who excel at hitting pitchers out of the stretch, or who feel more confident guessing pitch selection with runners on, or who simply change their mental approach with runners on. I'm not sold that we should say 'X player hit .350 with RISP this year he is a legend', but I'm also not sold on discounting it entirely as nonsense.

[thethe]

I would agree. It feels like it has to be somewhere in between normal sample size variation and completely repeatable skill. It would seem to me that there might be certain players who excel at hitting pitchers out of the stretch, or who feel more confident guessing pitch selection with runners on, or who simply change their mental approach with runners on. I'm not sold that we should say 'X player hit .350 with RISP this year he is a legend', but I'm also not sold on discounting it entirely as nonsense.

Exactly - Our understanding of the universe constantly evolves.

Just because we can't quantify something now doesn't mean it doesn't exist.

All I know is that its a specialized situation with different 'rules' than bases empty. Do those rules have a material impact on the end result? I don't know....

[Enscheff]

Oh I understand that someone has to be on base in front of the hitter but why then is a hitter evaluated on runs scored and runs driven in. It is stated that a player who drives in 100 and scores 100 is very successful.
Take the Braves this year, would we as fans been less stressed if they bottom 4 of our daily lineup produced even a few RBI?
Now back to my original intent. My thoughts are that Duvall will not be a Brave next year unless AA comes up with a multi year deal. That simple. With coming of 15 new DHs and teams like the WhiteSox, Cleveland and the Rangers all with weak OFs, low scoring teams, and empty seats Im sure some one will offer Duvall a multiyear, low dollar by todays standards contract. Thats all.

Because there are 2 ways hitters contribute to scoring runs: driving in runners, and being on base to be driven on by others.

A guy who does 100 of each is good because he is probably doing well in both aspects of the offensive equation. Since OBP is a great proxy for being on base for others, and SLG is a great proxy for how many runners a player would drive in if they are on base, OPS became such an and easy and valuable way of measuring offensive performance without relying on anyone around you.

Obviously driving in runs is good, but it's not measuring true talent. No player I'm aware of has shown any skill at driving in runs repeatable over a significant sample size. Good hitters are good hitters, and guys with high SLG rates will drive in a lot of runners if those runners are on base. Get lucky with a few more HRs at the right time, and that's how you lead the league in RBI.

Everyone by now should understand Duvall is a slightly above average hitter who accomplishes that by hitting for a lot of power to help make up for a poor OBP. Another average hitter with less power and more OBP would lead to the same number of team runs because while they wouldn't drive in as many, they would be on base more frequently for others to drive in. The bottom of the order would have more of those RBI you seek if Duvall was ever on base to be driven in.

This discussion is literally why analytics were invented, and the nerds were able to take over. This undervaluing of getting on base (or more accurately, not getting out) is what allowed the As to become the power they were in the moneyball era.