Official 2022 Offseason Moves Thread

[Enscheff]

Fangraphs expects the FF contract to be in the 5 year 130 million range.

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2022-top-50-free-agents/

MLBTR just came out with theirs too:

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2021/...-rankings.html

Between the 2 sources, we can get a pretty good idea of how the FA market will shape up, at least cost-wise (predicting teams is pointless). The one thing nobody ever projects is the couple guys left without a chair, but they usually guys who got a QO and refused to adjust their contract asks accordingly.

Freeman at 5/135 on FG, and 6/180 on MLBTR. This is what we all knew and talked about for about 2 years now...the Goldy contract or a stupid contract. I don't think AA will touch either figure, and I'd bet almost anything he won't go near $180M. If MLBTR is correct, and some team is willing to go bonkers for Freeman, he will almost certainly not be a Brave. If he accepts something like 3/90 plus an option, he will probably be back.

Bryant at 8/200 on FG, and 6/160 on MLBTR is a hard pass. I severely underestimated his market value apparently. No thanks at that price, no matter what happens with Freeman.

Gausman at 3/54 on FG, and 6/138 on MLBTR. I remember arguing about how good Gausman was as a Brave despite his poor results. Folks argued that he was trash, and I explained he was getting unlucky results. Now he is somehow the 3rd biggest name on the SP market. No thanks, but I just mentioned him because whatever happened with him in Atlanta was very strange.

Marte at 2/50 on FG, and 4/80 on MLBTR. Now we are getting to the "if Freeman doesn't come back" guys. Slotting Marte in CF would help fix a lot of potential issues in the OF.

Castellanos at 3/63 on FG, and 5/115 on MLBTR. This is the first guy on the list with a QO I consider a candidate to price himself out of a job. All bat players don't typically do as well as projected, and he might be a guy to scoop up late with Ozuna's money.

Taylor at 4/60 on FG, and 4/64 on MLBTR. This is another guy who fills a lot of potential holes for the Braves, but that's the case for many teams. If the payroll is going up to $180 like we dream, he would be an awesome addition. With a payroll of $150M, a premium utility player is probably a luxury the team can't afford.

Kershaw at 1/18 on FG, and 1/20 on MLBTR. This is the first candidate for this year's "veteran pitcher on a 1 year deal". He's almost certainly too expensive, but he marks the top of the potential list (unless one of the other SPs prices himself out of a job late).

Avisail Garcia at 1/15 on FG, and 3/36 on MLBTR. I've wanted this guy in the OF for a while now. He fits in LF if AA has more cash than I assume, or if Freeman doesn't come back, or if they need to fill Ozuna's PAs, but only if he settles for the 1 year deal.

Conforto at 1/18 on FG and 1/20 on MLBTR. He should accept the QO and try again next year, but if he's sitting there late he might be a good grab.

Canha at 2/30 on FG, and 2/24 on MLBTR. This is another option for those LF/DH PAs.

Cruz at 1/15 and 1/12. Like last year, a perfect fit for DH PAs if any are available.

Belt at 1/18 and 1/18. He should also accept the QO, but he's a good example of the type of player that could replace Freeman if he gets $180M.

Rizzo at 2/26 and 3/45. I think this is the most likely Plan B if Freeman leaves.

Soler at 1/8 and 3/36. These are wildly divergent projections, and I hope AA can get him for that $8M price. The FG write-up is oddly dinosaurish since they didn't mention his good inputs and bad outputs in KC, so I imagine his price will be higher than their prediction.

There's a ton of SPs at the bottom of these lists, and all of them are possible fits for ~$10M on a 1 year deal.

Notice guys like Joc, Duvall and Rosario are pretty much afterthoughts. They are only options to round out the roster after the heavy lifting has been completed.

[thethe]

I wouldn't want to lock up the DH with a guy who can't 'fake it' in the OF or 1b for 30 games a year. So for me, I'm a no on Cruz.

Important to cycle other guys in the DH to give them a breather during the year.

Marte - Yes
Castellanos - Yes (Surprisingly not awful in the OF last year so can be shuttled between DH/OF)
Canha - Yes (Could be a nice leadoff hitter if we finally move Acuna to the 2 spot - Had some brief time in 2019 at first base and seemingly excelled)
Soler - Yes

A combination of those three along with either Rizzo/Freeman would be nice to have.

[UNCBlue012]

The Reds are apparently willing to discuss Luis Castillo in trade talks (MLB Trade Rumors). He'd be a fantastic get: Fried-Morton-Castillo-Anderson-Soroka/Muller would be crazy strong.

[clvclv]

MLBTR just came out with theirs too:

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2021/...-rankings.html

Between the 2 sources, we can get a pretty good idea of how the FA market will shape up, at least cost-wise (predicting teams is pointless). The one thing nobody ever projects is the couple guys left without a chair, but they usually guys who got a QO and refused to adjust their contract asks accordingly.

Freeman at 5/135 on FG, and 6/180 on MLBTR. This is what we all knew and talked about for about 2 years now...the Goldy contract or a stupid contract. I don't think AA will touch either figure, and I'd bet almost anything he won't go near $180M. If MLBTR is correct, and some team is willing to go bonkers for Freeman, he will almost certainly not be a Brave. If he accepts something like 3/90 plus an option, he will probably be back.

Bryant at 8/200 on FG, and 6/160 on MLBTR is a hard pass. I severely underestimated his market value apparently. No thanks at that price, no matter what happens with Freeman.

Gausman at 3/54 on FG, and 6/138 on MLBTR. I remember arguing about how good Gausman was as a Brave despite his poor results. Folks argued that he was trash, and I explained he was getting unlucky results. Now he is somehow the 3rd biggest name on the SP market. No thanks, but I just mentioned him because whatever happened with him in Atlanta was very strange.

Marte at 2/50 on FG, and 4/80 on MLBTR. Now we are getting to the "if Freeman doesn't come back" guys. Slotting Marte in CF would help fix a lot of potential issues in the OF.

Castellanos at 3/63 on FG, and 5/115 on MLBTR. This is the first guy on the list with a QO I consider a candidate to price himself out of a job. All bat players don't typically do as well as projected, and he might be a guy to scoop up late with Ozuna's money.

Taylor at 4/60 on FG, and 4/64 on MLBTR. This is another guy who fills a lot of potential holes for the Braves, but that's the case for many teams. If the payroll is going up to $180 like we dream, he would be an awesome addition. With a payroll of $150M, a premium utility player is probably a luxury the team can't afford.

Kershaw at 1/18 on FG, and 1/20 on MLBTR. This is the first candidate for this year's "veteran pitcher on a 1 year deal". He's almost certainly too expensive, but he marks the top of the potential list (unless one of the other SPs prices himself out of a job late).

Avisail Garcia at 1/15 on FG, and 3/36 on MLBTR. I've wanted this guy in the OF for a while now. He fits in LF if AA has more cash than I assume, or if Freeman doesn't come back, or if they need to fill Ozuna's PAs, but only if he settles for the 1 year deal.

Conforto at 1/18 on FG and 1/20 on MLBTR. He should accept the QO and try again next year, but if he's sitting there late he might be a good grab.

Canha at 2/30 on FG, and 2/24 on MLBTR. This is another option for those LF/DH PAs.

Cruz at 1/15 and 1/12. Like last year, a perfect fit for DH PAs if any are available.

Belt at 1/18 and 1/18. He should also accept the QO, but he's a good example of the type of player that could replace Freeman if he gets $180M.

Rizzo at 2/26 and 3/45. I think this is the most likely Plan B if Freeman leaves.

Soler at 1/8 and 3/36. These are wildly divergent projections, and I hope AA can get him for that $8M price. The FG write-up is oddly dinosaurish since they didn't mention his good inputs and bad outputs in KC, so I imagine his price will be higher than their prediction.

There's a ton of SPs at the bottom of these lists, and all of them are possible fits for ~$10M on a 1 year deal.

Notice guys like Joc, Duvall and Rosario are pretty much afterthoughts. They are only options to round out the roster after the heavy lifting has been completed.

If their (MLBTR) estimate of 2 years/$15 million gets Rosario back, I'd be all-in on that - need at least one LH bat in the OF. I like the Rizzo and Cruz options as fallbacks as well.

A couple you didn't mention that I kinda like are Knebel or Graveman at $9 million per - if you non-tender Rodriguez that makes them cheaper than Martin was and gives you a second dominant righty for the back-end.

It needs to be filed under the category of "I'd rather pay Freeman market value" from a fan and legacy standpoint, but if you could get two clubhouse leaders like Rizzo and Cruz with money left over to put towards one of those RH back-end guys it's impossible to argue that it doesn't make sense from a financial standpoint. If payroll was going up in the $30 million range, you could also bring back Rosario and look into bringing Verlander in to make Anderson your fourth starter for the next two years.

[McCann'sCans]

I have a weird affinity for Garcia and would love him at that 1/15 number. Soler at 1/8 would be an absolute no brainer.

Enscheff, I assume you would be somewhat comfortable giving Freeman more money in exchange for a shorter deal? If he wants 5/150 and has something like that on the table elsewhere, would you offer him 3/102 with a team option for a fourth year? Just curious what others think that negotiation should look like and how high you'd be willing to hike the AAV for a shorter term.

[clvclv]

"Soler at 1/8 and 3/36. These are wildly divergent projections, and I hope AA can get him for that $8M price. The FG write-up is oddly dinosaurish since they didn't mention his good inputs and bad outputs in KC, so I imagine his price will be higher than their prediction."

My ideal offseason would consist of...

1.) The disappearance of Ozuna.
2.) Freeman re-signs at FG's median - 5 years/$125 with a team option for a 6th year. That would keep him in the fold through Ozzie's contract.
3.) Rosario brought back at MLBTR's projection - 2 years/$15 million (or less).
4.) Split the difference of the two Soler projections - 2 years/$20 million.
5.) Bundle Pache, Waters, and an arm and go get Reynolds.

That would bring payroll in around $155 million with the expected arbitration figures. If payroll increases into the $165-$170 million range, AA could look to bring someone like Greinke/Pineda/DeSclafani/Wood in on this year's version of the Smyly deal.

[thethe]

That trade never works for Reynolds.

You are going to be off by like 40M surplus value at least.

[Enscheff]

I have a weird affinity for Garcia and would love him at that 1/15 number. Soler at 1/8 would be an absolute no brainer.

Enscheff, I assume you would be somewhat comfortable giving Freeman more money in exchange for a shorter deal? If he wants 5/150 and has something like that on the table elsewhere, would you offer him 3/102 with a team option for a fourth year? Just curious what others think that negotiation should look like and how high you'd be willing to hike the AAV for a shorter term.

I’m assuming anything in the 3 year range has to be around $30M per. The exact value is impossible to predict, but $100M+ is probably stretching it.

Keep in mind an option will come with a buyout, and that buyout will effectively increase the AAV of the guaranteed years. So 3/90 plus an option will end up being close to 3/100 if the option is declined.

[Tapate50]

I'm hoping they settle on 4 and not 5. But thats probably REALLY wishful thinking.

[chop2chip]

I know the sentiment from writers (DOB, Schultz, etc.) is that not resigning Freeman will tarnish the good will the championship brought to fans. But I think as long as payroll increases, fans will get over FF leaving very quickly.

If I had to guess, I think Freddie signs on the west coast with a contender and gets a guaranteed 6th year.

Braves fans have been around to see enough homegrown stars leave that have not been worth the second contract. I don’t think it will be difficult to sell that message.

[thethe]

Winning sells seats.

If the Braves are in first place come August the stadium will be rocking without Freeman.

[NYCBrave]

Most people aren't going to care that Ozuna was accused of hitting his wife if he hits home runs. The idea that people will stop attending games over it is ludicrous and has never occurred anywhere in the many times a similar situation has come up.

The only practical consequences are snippy Keith Law chat comments.

Around the league, many teams have forgiven players who have been suspended for domestic violence and welcomed them back. The Phillies had Odubel Herrera back as their starting CF. The Yankees welcomed back Domingo German.

Obviously these types of incidents are unforgivable for the most part. However, it's possible a player can show remorse and atone for their mistakes. That being said, if the player is not wanted back in the clubhouse, that pretty much is the end to that.

[50PoundHead]

Saved some space and didn't quote Enscheff's summary of the projected FA deals. Braves did well filling the void(s) in the OF last trade deadline, but going forward, I'm torn as to whether we should throw a big deal at Starling Marte and go bargain basement to fill things out until Acuna returns or look to a couple of mid-range deals. All depends on available resources.

[Enscheff]

I bet Freeman signs with the Braves for a contract that I dislike, but have to acknowledge was necessary to keep the team a contender in the near term.

At that point we all just hope Freeman doesn’t turn into an albatross the last 1-2 years of the deal.

[Tapate50]

I bet Freeman signs with the Braves for a contract that I dislike, but have to acknowledge was necessary to keep the team a contender in the near term.

At that point we all just hope Freeman doesn’t turn into an albatross the last 1-2 years of the deal.

At what point will you necessarily "dislike it"?

160+\5?

[PawPawMaxwell]

Still on the 50/50 chance train but believe if not Atlanta for a Enscheff type deal it will be the West Coast if he wants more than 100M guaranteed. Long shot after many days of pondering: If the 5/150 is offered by Detroit (if not a WC team) Freddie may go home.

[NYCBrave]

It's strange. I thought we had gotten to the point where so many teams have been burned by these long term deals with guys starting in their mid 30's, that teams will be reluctant to keep giving them out. I guess all it takes is that one dumb team.

[Enscheff]

At what point will you necessarily "dislike it"?

160+\5?

Anything over about 3/90 will have too much potential of being an albatross. The reason Ozuna's 4 year deal was palatable (and I still wasn't a huge fan of it) was because the AAV was only $16M, so if Freeman does something like 5/125 the length won't be quite so bad.

It's so unknowable at this point, but if Freeman wasn't looking for Goldy+ money I suspect he wouldn't be a FA right now.

I'd prefer Rizzo plus Marte for 2-4 years over just Freeman for 5-6, but who knows what's really possible.

[chopdrew]

I said this elsewhere (maybe here, too), but the PR disaster of letting Freddie get away would be catastrophic. It is all anyone is talking about here locally. I just don't see any way AA lets it happen. He might be the one guy Liberty would intervene in favor of. He's one or two in terms of drawing power on this team, and this team has to draw to make money. It's gonna be something like 6/180 or 7/195, and we're gonna smile and like it.

[chop2chip]

I said this elsewhere (maybe here, too), but the PR disaster of letting Freddie get away would be catastrophic. It is all anyone is talking about here locally. I just don't see any way AA lets it happen. He might be the one guy Liberty would intervene in favor of. He's one or two in terms of drawing power on this team, and this team has to draw to make money. It's gonna be something like 6/180 or 7/195, and we're gonna smile and like it.

Fun fact.

Last year was the first year the St Louis Cardinals drew less attendance than the last year before Albert Pujols left.