Official 2022 Offseason Moves Thread

[jgriff3029]

The big problem with the Angels signing him is they just don't have the flexibility unless Moreno is going to allow them to start carrying a $230 million payroll. On the surface it's easy to say "that would only have to be this year since J-Up comes off their books after this season", but that doesn't go deep enough - Otani will be a free-agent after 2023. He's going to get a substantially higher AAV than Syndergaard's getting this year - and they'll still have to replace Syndergaard.

If they did though, it would be funny to see Minasian turn around and trade Walsh for Wright and another arm. Sandoval, Wright, Detmers, and Bachman would be four pretty nice young, controllable arms for them to have behind Shohei if Sandoval comes back strong.

I agree with you that it is not likely. My point was just that for all the reasons they might not, having Walsh at first base is probably not high on the list. I am pretty familiar with the Angels since my wife is a big fan. Our summers here in California usually consist of the Braces game at 4:00 and the Angels right afterwards.

I do think Moreno is desperate to compete during Trout and Ohtani's current window so 220+ million pay role may not be out of the question.

[Enscheff]

The possibility of losing Freeman always hinged on another team doing something stupid, and the Angels have always been one of the most likely stupid teams…right up there with the Padres. As long as AA doesn’t try to out-stupid the other stupid team, I hope he gets Freeman back with the Braves.

[clvclv]

The possibility of losing Freeman always hinged on another team doing something stupid, and the Angels have always been one of the most likely stupid teams…right up there with the Padres. As long as AA doesn’t try to out-stupid the other stupid team, I hope he gets Freeman back with the Braves.

In this case it would almost completely HAVE TO be an ownership-level idiotic decision though IMO - not unlike signing Rendon.

After watching Minasian spend every single draft pick on arms last summer it's incredibly hard to imagine he would hand out another massive contract unless it was going to a Pitcher. Actually a little surprised he wasn't waist-deep in the Scherzer bidding instead of signing Syndergaard personally.

[Carp]

Anaheim has Jared Walsh, 27 yo, 4 yrs control, 3.1 oWAR, OPS+ of 128, .277/.340/.509, All Star, LHH. Costs bupkis.

If Walsh weren't there, I'd be very concerned. But he is. Even Moreno isn't that stupid.

Eh, Freeman is a good bit better than Walsh, who is a 27 year old 1b with 1 full year of above average production at the ML level. But as it were, Walsh also has experience in the OF, so he could shift there. I just wouldn't count them out. They love to spend money and Freeman is a local boy.

[Enscheff]

Let’s hope the Angels are smart enough to let their cheap 3 win 1b stay there and they pick up an actual OFer for the OF.

[JohnAdcox]

Let’s hope the Angels are smart enough to let their cheap 3 win 1b stay there and they pick up an actual OFer for the OF.

I'd be willing to send them Ozuna.

[JohnAdcox]

Let’s hope the Angels are smart enough to let their cheap 3 win 1b stay there and they pick up an actual OFer for the OF.

I'd be willing to send them Ozuna.

[Enscheff]

LF is still a need. Most people think the Braves could use a LHH in that spot, but the reality is this hitter just needs to be competent vs RHP.

Here are the xwOBA values vs RHP for the LFers left on the market over the last 3 season.

Schwarber, Kyle .394
Conforto, Michael .376
Soler, Jorge .372
Castellanos, Nick .362
Bryant, Kris .333
Rosario, Eddie .330

Suzuki is projected for something like an .800-850 OPS.

To me, neither Bryant nor Rosario are very good options. Schwarber and Castellanos are both probably too expensive and too terrible in LF.

Soler is still the guy I want in LF, but Conforto or Suzuki would make sense at the right price.

Looking over the 2021 defensive metrics for the OFers of interest (I prefer catch probability added and UZR/150 since they are rate stats rather than counting):

Acuna: +1%, 7.2
Duvall: +1%, 11.8
Conforto: 0%, -6.8
Rosario: 0%, -1
Soler: -4%, -12.7

So they break down into tiers...

Acuna and Duvall are good cOFers who can fake it in CF. We knew that, and Duvall is likely to get a lot of time in CF in 2022.

Conforto and Rosario are average-ish defenders who are likely just fine in a cOF spot.

Soler is pretty bad, but for some reason I seem to gloss over that fact constantly.

The more I look at it, the more Conforto or a dice roll on Suzuki is starting to make sense.

[Enscheff]

Tommy Pham is another interesting option, even though he's a RHH.

.355 xwOBA vs RHP the last 3 seasons.

-2% catch prob, -1.6 UZR/150, so he's in that Conforto/Rosario tier defensively.

Neither FG nor MLBTR even have him as a top 50 FA, so that mean he should be had for something like $5M-$10M.

He might be a good low cost option for a .258/.354/.429 and 2.2 fWAR projection.

[msstate7]

Tommy Pham is another interesting option, even though he's a RHH.

.355 xwOBA vs RHP the last 3 seasons.

-2% catch prob, -1.6 UZR/150, so he's in that Conforto/Rosario tier defensively.

Neither FG nor MLBTR even have him as a top 50 FA, so that mean he should be had for something like $5M-$10M.

He might be a good low cost option for a .258/.354/.429 and 2.2 fWAR projection.

Like this one if your price range guess is right

[CyYoung31]

https://nypost.com/2022/01/03/ken-ro...red-criticism/

[McCann'sCans]

Tommy Pham is another interesting option, even though he's a RHH.

.355 xwOBA vs RHP the last 3 seasons.

-2% catch prob, -1.6 UZR/150, so he's in that Conforto/Rosario tier defensively.

Neither FG nor MLBTR even have him as a top 50 FA, so that mean he should be had for something like $5M-$10M.

He might be a good low cost option for a .258/.354/.429 and 2.2 fWAR projection.

Agreed with msstate- love Pham at that price.

[clvclv]

Tommy Pham is another interesting option, even though he's a RHH.

.355 xwOBA vs RHP the last 3 seasons.

-2% catch prob, -1.6 UZR/150, so he's in that Conforto/Rosario tier defensively.

Neither FG nor MLBTR even have him as a top 50 FA, so that mean he should be had for something like $5M-$10M.

He might be a good low cost option for a .258/.354/.429 and 2.2 fWAR projection.

I personally prefer Conforto - although not necessarily only because he hits left-handed. That helps (of course), but I think he fits better because of the pieces he could potentially free up to be used in another deal - assuming Conforto could be signed to a reasonable 3 year deal.

If you get another LHH bat for LF for more than one year, Waters becomes strictly trade fodder and AA doesn't have to invest more time hoping the approach finally improves. Duvall/Pache/Heredia cover CF in 2022 with Conforto in RF and Ozuna in LF until Acuna is cleared. At that point Conforto slides to LF and Ozuna becomes a full-time DH. Harris potentially enters the CF mix as early as 2023 - potentially platooning with Pache - which (more or less) makes Waters not only expendable, but pretty much overkill since Franklin provides the same type of CF with swing-and-miss concerns who would probably be right on Harris' heels. You'd still have Dean around in the event you wanted another impact defender to give Harris more development time, plus there always seem to be a handful of those types of veterans (Heredia/Pillar/Dyson/Marisnick/Lagares/Almora types) available.

Assuming Alex is now LOOKING to trade Waters rather than considering him available in the right deal, the pressure for Freeman to accept a more reasonable deal arises. Suddenly offering up what the FanGraphs article surmised would be a suitable return for Olson (and extending him for much less than Freddie is apparently looking for) almost makes more sense than bothering to chase Freeman when the lockout ends. With Conforto on board and Olson extended, the only position with any significant question mark before the end of 2024 would be SS, and with the DH in place you could get away with glove-first guys there (and even in CF).

[thewupk]

It's 2022 and the Braves are still World Champs

[Enscheff]

I personally prefer Conforto - although not necessarily only because he hits left-handed. That helps (of course), but I think he fits better because of the pieces he could potentially free up to be used in another deal - assuming Conforto could be signed to a reasonable 3 year deal.

If you get another LHH bat for LF for more than one year, Waters becomes strictly trade fodder and AA doesn't have to invest more time hoping the approach finally improves. Duvall/Pache/Heredia cover CF in 2022 with Conforto in RF and Ozuna in LF until Acuna is cleared. At that point Conforto slides to LF and Ozuna becomes a full-time DH. Harris potentially enters the CF mix as early as 2023 - potentially platooning with Pache - which (more or less) makes Waters not only expendable, but pretty much overkill since Franklin provides the same type of CF with swing-and-miss concerns who would probably be right on Harris' heels. You'd still have Dean around in the event you wanted another impact defender to give Harris more development time, plus there always seem to be a handful of those types of veterans (Heredia/Pillar/Dyson/Marisnick/Lagares/Almora types) available.

Assuming Alex is now LOOKING to trade Waters rather than considering him available in the right deal, the pressure for Freeman to accept a more reasonable deal arises. Suddenly offering up what the FanGraphs article surmised would be a suitable return for Olson (and extending him for much less than Freddie is apparently looking for) almost makes more sense than bothering to chase Freeman when the lockout ends. With Conforto on board and Olson extended, the only position with any significant question mark before the end of 2024 would be SS, and with the DH in place you could get away with glove-first guys there (and even in CF).

The reason I've been posting xwOBA vs RHP is to address this idea that they need another LHH. What they actually need is a good hitter vs RHP, regardless of batter handedness.

So if we call Conforto and Pham roughly even defensively, the choice comes down to Conforto's .376 xwOBA vs RHP for $18M-$20M plus a draft pick vs Pham's .355 xwOBA vs RHP for $5M-10M. If Conforto gets multi-year offers, someone like Pham becomes even more appealing.

Of course, Conforto is also the exact type of player who's value gets killed by the QO, so he may be signed at a steep discount. He's also the most likely guy on the market to be a true impact addition (3+ fWAR).

I would be on board with Soler, Conforto, Pham or Suzuki...all depending on price.

[clvclv]

The reason I've been posting xwOBA vs RHP is to address this idea that they need another LHH. What they actually need is a good hitter vs RHP, regardless of batter handedness.

So if we call Conforto and Pham roughly even defensively, the choice comes down to Conforto's .376 xwOBA vs RHP for $18M-$20M plus a draft pick vs Pham's .355 xwOBA vs RHP for $5M-10M. If Conforto gets multi-year offers, someone like Pham becomes even more appealing.

Of course, Conforto is also the exact type of player who's value gets killed by the QO, so he may be signed at a steep discount. He's also the most likely guy on the market to be a true impact addition (3+ fWAR).

I would be on board with Soler, Conforto, Pham or Suzuki...all depending on price.

I wouldn't disagree with that at all - my preference for Conforto's LH bat has more to do with Freeman potentially leaving than anything else. If they're not paying an arm and a leg for him to return and they go with Olson or Rizzo, I'd just as soon pay more for Conforto's higher upside. If you're paying Freddie $25+ million AAV I wholeheartedly agree with your preference for the best value signing (on a one-year deal) to play LF - regardless of which side they hit from. I just feel that if AA is looking to put the favorite to win the NL again on the field from the jump - without completely hoarding prospects like he has in the past - his strongest move would be to put Waters, Contreras, Wright, one of Muller or Davidson, and another piece or two (if needed) in a deal for Olson and Manaea and then sign Conforto. The 2022 salary hit for Olson and Conforto TOGETHER should be in the same ballpark as the Freeman asking price, and Manaea would be one *ell of an upgrade over Muller/Davidson/Wright in that #4 rotation spot for the same money Smyly made this season.

Another win-now move for sure, but you wouldn't be tied to an aging 1B/DH at a high AAV unless you extended the much younger Olson (who also has plenty of hometown hero appeal), and Alex would have Morton and Smith potentially coming off the books to pay for that next season if he so chooses. You'd also add Manaea who arguably has as much upside as any of the SPs left that have been floated as "available" so far.

"Balancing" the lineup is admittedly much more old-school, and simply something I feel like makes things much more comfortable for the old-school guy the Braves have making the lineup card out every afternoon - not something I feel like is a "must" by any stretch.

[buck75]

Assuming MLB plays some games in 2022 and the Braves want to trade Ozuna, what type of overpay would it take for another team to take Ozuna? Thanks!

[Freshmaker]

Assuming MLB plays some games in 2022 and the Braves want to trade Ozuna, what type of overpay would it take for another team to take Ozuna? Thanks!

Probably would have to include Kimbrel

[PawPawMaxwell]

Some assumptions here but what if Freddies only West Coast option is San Diego? Then how about Ozuna for Hosmer, Myers and a top prospect plus money?

[bravesfanMatt]

Some assumptions here but what if Freddies only West Coast option is San Diego? Then how about Ozuna for Hosmer, Myers and a top prospect plus money?

What the??