Official 2022 Offseason Moves Thread

[GovClintonTyree]

Looking over the 2021 defensive metrics for the OFers of interest (I prefer catch probability added and UZR/150 since they are rate stats rather than counting):

Acuna: +1%, 7.2
Duvall: +1%, 11.8
Conforto: 0%, -6.8
Rosario: 0%, -1
Soler: -4%, -12.7

So they break down into tiers...

Acuna and Duvall are good cOFers who can fake it in CF. We knew that, and Duvall is likely to get a lot of time in CF in 2022.

Conforto and Rosario are average-ish defenders who are likely just fine in a cOF spot.

Soler is pretty bad, but for some reason I seem to gloss over that fact constantly.

The more I look at it, the more Conforto or a dice roll on Suzuki is starting to make sense.

Probably the possibility of 50 massive bombs makes you a little giddy. At least it does me.

[GovClintonTyree]

Looking over the 2021 defensive metrics for the OFers of interest (I prefer catch probability added and UZR/150 since they are rate stats rather than counting):

Acuna: +1%, 7.2
Duvall: +1%, 11.8
Conforto: 0%, -6.8
Rosario: 0%, -1
Soler: -4%, -12.7

So they break down into tiers...

Acuna and Duvall are good cOFers who can fake it in CF. We knew that, and Duvall is likely to get a lot of time in CF in 2022.

Conforto and Rosario are average-ish defenders who are likely just fine in a cOF spot.

Soler is pretty bad, but for some reason I seem to gloss over that fact constantly.

The more I look at it, the more Conforto or a dice roll on Suzuki is starting to make sense.

This is another thing we gloss over that is not insignificant...Duvall had one inning in CF in his major league career prior to 2021. I suppose it was borne of desperation, but the fact that he was able to man CF through virtually all of September and October for us and do a decent job opened up the opportunity to play those other bats in LF and RF and not have to live with Heredia in CF. With sprint speed of 28.6 ft/sec as a 32 year old, I'm kind of surprised that nobody looked at it before. He looks like a pudgy white boy but the guy is one of the best athletes on the team. In fact, he does everything you'd want an outfielder to do but make contact/manage the zone (unfortunately, that's a pretty important skill).

[Carp]

Some assumptions here but what if Freddies only West Coast option is San Diego? Then how about Ozuna for Hosmer, Myers and a top prospect plus money?

Hosmer is pretty awful and is under contract until 2025. Myers likewise isn't very good and is very expensive this year. I just don't see how this is a fit all. Seems like a much safer option to stick with Ozuna and hope he rebounds in this year and stays out of trouble.

[Enscheff]

Some assumptions here but what if Freddies only West Coast option is San Diego? Then how about Ozuna for Hosmer, Myers and a top prospect plus money?

This could make sense if the Braves knew something about those guys to unlock some hidden value. Like, for example, they had a way to stop Hosmer from hitting so many grounders. However, I don't think Hosmer would make such a change at this late stage of his career.

[PawPawMaxwell]

I get it that Myers and Hosmer are not WS type players in most roles they can be placed in but neither is a total wreck either. In fact both are pretty much league average players based on BA, WAR and OPS+.

[thewupk]

Some assumptions here but what if Freddies only West Coast option is San Diego? Then how about Ozuna for Hosmer, Myers and a top prospect plus money?

What? Freddie is leaving Atlanta to get away from Ozuna. No way the team that signs him would then trade for Marcell.

[thewupk]

This is another thing we gloss over that is not insignificant...Duvall had one inning in CF in his major league career prior to 2021. I suppose it was borne of desperation, but the fact that he was able to man CF through virtually all of September and October for us and do a decent job opened up the opportunity to play those other bats in LF and RF and not have to live with Heredia in CF. With sprint speed of 28.6 ft/sec as a 32 year old, I'm kind of surprised that nobody looked at it before. He looks like a pudgy white boy but the guy is one of the best athletes on the team. In fact, he does everything you'd want an outfielder to do but make contact/manage the zone (unfortunately, that's a pretty important skill).

That's because for the majority of his career he's had Billy Hamilton and Inciarte on his team who have been elite CFers so there was really no need to put him out there. But yeah, everything suggests he can be a passable CFer if needed and the Braves likely will need that for a majority of 2022. I have to assume at some point Pache will get another chance next year in Atlanta though.

[clvclv]

That's because for the majority of his career he's had Billy Hamilton and Inciarte on his team who have been elite CFers so there was really no need to put him out there. But yeah, everything suggests he can be a passable CFer if needed and the Braves likely will need that for a majority of 2022. I have to assume at some point Pache will get another chance next year in Atlanta though.

Assuming Ozuna is on the roster - and I see almost no reason to assume Alex is going to be able to convince someone else to take him - I still think there's a better chance that that point is Opening Day than most folks think.

There's still a part of me that thinks AA is going to use a chunk of the additional revenue to extend Fried. I don't think a potential Freeman return has any bearing on things - at the end of the day, I just don't think that's in Alex' hands. It's a "brand" decision, and with Acuna and Albies locked up through 2026/2027 I just feel like ownership will feel like they have to keep that core together. I feel like Max is the 4th leg of that horse, and think AA just might too.

A 4 year/$71.2 million extension that starts in 2023 would buy out Fried's first 2 free-agent seasons (through age 33) and would somewhat mirror the McCullers and Berrios deals.

2022 - $7.1 million (arbitration year)
2023 - $12.2 million (arbitration year)
2024 - $19.6 million (arbitration year)
2025 - $19.6 million (free-agent)
2026 - $19.7 million (free-agent)


That's $17.8 million AAV - McCullers' 5 years is $17 million AAV and Berrios' 7 years is $18.7 million AAV, so that's pretty much smack in the middle of those. Max turns 28 on January 18th, McCullers turned 28 in October, and Berrios turns 28 at the end of May. If you were ranking the three of them by ceilings Berrios would probably be first, and his longer deal reflects that. I think it's probably fair to consider McCullers and Max a wash given their injury concerns and histories. McCullers said he wanted to finish his career in Houston, and although I haven't seen Max quoted saying that I think it's fair to think he might like to finish here too since he's never pitched anywhere else and has a really good core surrounding him like McCullers and Berrios do. McCullers and Fried might not be "done" at age 33, and if Max wanted to ensure that he finished here and was pushed by the union or his agent to get closer to Berrios' 7 years he could agree to have 2027 tacked on as a $20 million team option like they did for Morton and go year-to-year after that.

If Freeman eventually gets 6 years and they picked up Fried and Ozzie's (first) options, the four of them would be together through the guaranteed part of Acuna's deal.

[Enscheff]

I thought this was funny...2 fired managers both go on to win manager of the year elsewhere. Maybe they need to reevaluate what the actual problem is in Philly?

glt4dc
1:23 With Gabe Kapler winning Manager of the Year, he is the 2nd ex-Phillies manager (along with Terry Francona) to the win the award this century. Does that reflect:
a) badly on Phillies management for not being able to provide a quality manager what he needed when he managed the team at the time?
b) well on Phillies management for identifying up-and-coming managerial talent?

AvatarDan Szymborski
1:23 Probably doesn't reflect anything systemic
Other than in this case, the Phillies ownership/front office misidentified their faults as Kapler's
1:24 They didn't need a manager "who knows how to win."
They needed -- and still do -- better players.

[Heyward]

Some assumptions here but what if Freddies only West Coast option is San Diego? Then how about Ozuna for Hosmer, Myers and a top prospect plus money?

No?

[Heyward]

I thought this was funny...2 fired managers both go on to win manager of the year elsewhere. Maybe they need to reevaluate what the actual problem is in Philly?

glt4dc
1:23 With Gabe Kapler winning Manager of the Year, he is the 2nd ex-Phillies manager (along with Terry Francona) to the win the award this century. Does that reflect:
a) badly on Phillies management for not being able to provide a quality manager what he needed when he managed the team at the time?
b) well on Phillies management for identifying up-and-coming managerial talent?

AvatarDan Szymborski
1:23 Probably doesn't reflect anything systemic
Other than in this case, the Phillies ownership/front office misidentified their faults as Kapler's
1:24 They didn't need a manager "who knows how to win."
They needed -- and still do -- better players.

Kapler was never the problem in Philly. Managers dont mean quite as much in baseball as they do in other sports. Or the coach, whatever.

[thewupk]

I thought this was funny...2 fired managers both go on to win manager of the year elsewhere. Maybe they need to reevaluate what the actual problem is in Philly?

glt4dc
1:23 With Gabe Kapler winning Manager of the Year, he is the 2nd ex-Phillies manager (along with Terry Francona) to the win the award this century. Does that reflect:
a) badly on Phillies management for not being able to provide a quality manager what he needed when he managed the team at the time?
b) well on Phillies management for identifying up-and-coming managerial talent?

AvatarDan Szymborski
1:23 Probably doesn't reflect anything systemic
Other than in this case, the Phillies ownership/front office misidentified their faults as Kapler's
1:24 They didn't need a manager "who knows how to win."
They needed -- and still do -- better players.

It's funny. Somehow in my mind I think of the Phillies as a relatively well run franchise mainly due to what they did in the 00's. They were good but not great from 01 to 06 and then they were really good to great from 07-11 and winning a World Series. But they haven't been to the playoffs since 2011 and have the second longest active playoff drought.

[MadduxFanII]

It's funny. Somehow in my mind I think of the Phillies as a relatively well run franchise mainly due to what they did in the 00's. They were good but not great from 01 to 06 and then they were really good to great from 07-11 and winning a World Series. But they haven't been to the playoffs since 2011 and have the second longest active playoff drought.

Kind of have the same reaction, honestly. I remember how the Braves would go into Philadelphia during those Utley/Howard/Victorino/Rollins/Halladay/Lee years and just look like the Clampetts in comparison. They were so relentlessly good back then, and it seemed like the front office would swoop in and make a huge trade for a big-time player every off-season. They were such a Boogeyman back then, and I still kind of think of them that way, even though they haven't done anything to merit that in about a decade.

[zitothebrave]

I thought this was funny...2 fired managers both go on to win manager of the year elsewhere. Maybe they need to reevaluate what the actual problem is in Philly?

glt4dc
1:23 With Gabe Kapler winning Manager of the Year, he is the 2nd ex-Phillies manager (along with Terry Francona) to the win the award this century. Does that reflect:
a) badly on Phillies management for not being able to provide a quality manager what he needed when he managed the team at the time?
b) well on Phillies management for identifying up-and-coming managerial talent?

AvatarDan Szymborski
1:23 Probably doesn't reflect anything systemic
Other than in this case, the Phillies ownership/front office misidentified their faults as Kapler's
1:24 They didn't need a manager "who knows how to win."
They needed -- and still do -- better players.

Terry Francona is not a good manager. He's not a horrible manager, but he's not very good either.

Kapler we'll have to see. But honestly who knows.

Lots of great managers were fired before sticking, Braves infamously fired Bobby Cox and Joe Torre in the 80s. Bruce Bochy struggled with the Padres (don't recall if he was fired or just wasn't offered a contract) White Sox fired LaRussa before he went and took over the A's.

[zitothebrave]

It's funny. Somehow in my mind I think of the Phillies as a relatively well run franchise mainly due to what they did in the 00's. They were good but not great from 01 to 06 and then they were really good to great from 07-11 and winning a World Series. But they haven't been to the playoffs since 2011 and have the second longest active playoff drought.

Growing up around Philly I knew how miserable they were. I remember when they were the first team to 10,000 losses as ironically they were getting great. But I remember how miserable they were in the 90s. Even look at the 98 Phillies, where you had Scott Rolen, Curt Schilling, and Bobby Abreu. They were a 78 win team. Because the rest of the roster was mediocre to terrible. Same in 99.

I remember going to games at the Vet where most of the stadium was empty and you got free tickets for buying a package of Hatfield Philly Franks.

[msstate7]

Didn't kapler make a pitching change to a guy that hadn't even warmed up while at Philly?

[striker42]

Kapler was a disaster in Philly. He had a good handle on the analytics of what decision to make in game but he had no clue how to actually lead people. His handling of benching Caesar Hernandez was cringey.

Maybe he learned something. Maybe San Fran has done a better job compensating for his short comings. Maybe the Sam Francisco team was just easier to manage.

[zitothebrave]

Didn't kapler make a pitching change to a guy that hadn't even warmed up while at Philly?

https://www.theringer.com/mlb/2018/4...sions-phillies

[NYCBrave]

Kapler was a disaster in Philly. He had a good handle on the analytics of what decision to make in game but he had no clue how to actually lead people. His handling of benching Caesar Hernandez was cringey.

Maybe he learned something. Maybe San Fran has done a better job compensating for his short comings. Maybe the Sam Francisco team was just easier to manage.

I guess maybe have to take into account human nature. Sometimes when a person fails, they have to look in the mirror and realize their shortcomings, and attempt to grow. I will say, San Fran picked him up pretty quickly after he was let go by Philly, so they must have known something about his skillset as a manager, or he blew them away in the interview.

[Southcack77]

Kind of have the same reaction, honestly. I remember how the Braves would go into Philadelphia during those Utley/Howard/Victorino/Rollins/Halladay/Lee years and just look like the Clampetts in comparison. They were so relentlessly good back then, and it seemed like the front office would swoop in and make a huge trade for a big-time player every off-season. They were such a Boogeyman back then, and I still kind of think of them that way, even though they haven't done anything to merit that in about a decade.

Swooping in for big time trades every year is exactly how you end up with a 10 year playoff drought.

Feels good at the time and everybody claps you on the back though.