Official 2022 Offseason Moves Thread

[PawPawMaxwell]

Kids come to see their heros, Dads that bring them come to see their teams and the more the teams win, the more often the Dads bring the kids. Now, in additon, the fans have a couple more PR issues but then being in the minority here who are of the opinion. There are parents out there who will be upset with Joc.s speech and the kids who might tend to see him as a hero. Then there are those who think Ozuna is an embarrassment.

No matter what the price turns out to be, it needs to not be such that it prevents AA to fill out the other numerous voids in the lineup going forward,

[PawPawMaxwell]

Fun fact.

Last year was the first year the St Louis Cardinals drew less attendance than the last year before Albert Pujols left.

2021? Covid?

[chop2chip]

2021? Covid?

Yup.

Fans will support a winning team. As long as the Braves replace Freddie’s production, I don’t think it will matter much to the average fan, especially with Acuna returning next year.

[clvclv]

Anything over about 3/90 will have too much potential of being an albatross. The reason Ozuna's 4 year deal was palatable (and I still wasn't a huge fan of it) was because the AAV was only $16M, so if Freeman does something like 5/125 the length won't be quite so bad.

It's so unknowable at this point, but if Freeman wasn't looking for Goldy+ money I suspect he wouldn't be a FA right now.

I'd prefer Rizzo plus Marte for 2-4 years over just Freeman for 5-6, but who knows what's really possible.

Not sure I'd have the stomach for a four year contract for a 33 year old CF with declining power that might not even be a 20 SB threat by the end of the deal while also cussing several people in my head while signing Ender's buyout check.

Just seems counterintuitive to me to worry about Freeman's skill-set drying up over the course of a 6 year contract that would carry him to the same age Marte would be at the end of a 4 year pact - especially when Freddie would likely be a more productive DH than Marte if that's where you used them at the end.

[PawPawMaxwell]

Old age doesnt hurt most 1bn since they dont move that much. If the bat holds up at worse FF should suffice at DH near the end but the money ($30M per) is just a death wish near the end IMO.

[Metaphysicist]

Most people aren't going to care that Ozuna was accused of hitting his wife if he hits home runs. The idea that people will stop attending games over it is ludicrous and has never occurred anywhere in the many times a similar situation has come up.

The only practical consequences are snippy Keith Law chat comments.

[Hudson2]

I’d rather stagger his salary and pay him more in the first 2 years and less the next 3 or 4.

[chop2chip]

I’d rather stagger his salary and pay him more in the first 2 years and less the next 3 or 4.

I love what the Nationals do.

Defer money to the future (when you are likely to be rebuilding) to subsidize the present.

The problem with front loading contracts when you have a cheap controllable core is you aren’t maximizing a competitive advantage.

[McCann'sCans]

I’d rather stagger his salary and pay him more in the first 2 years and less the next 3 or 4.

I was about to say the same thing. I'm making up numbers entirely, but what if it was a five year deal that went: 35/35/30/20/20. Freddie gets 5/140, but if he's primarily a DH by year 5 its not crushing us quite as badly.

[Enscheff]

Old age doesnt hurt most 1bn since they dont move that much. If the bat holds up at worse FF should suffice at DH near the end but the money ($30M per) is just a death wish near the end IMO.

This has been proven to be completely false.

1B players age worse as a group than every position except C.

[Enscheff]

Not sure I'd have the stomach for a four year contract for a 33 year old CF with declining power that might not even be a 20 SB threat by the end of the deal while also cussing several people in my head while signing Ender's buyout check.

Just seems counterintuitive to me to worry about Freeman's skill-set drying up over the course of a 6 year contract that would carry him to the same age Marte would be at the end of a 4 year pact - especially when Freddie would likely be a more productive DH than Marte if that's where you used them at the end.

First, Marte is less than a year older than Freeman.

Second, The AAV for Marte would be much less than the AAV for Freeman.

Third, OFers tend to age much better than 1B.

Fourth, there are many options to backfill 1B, while there are almost zero options to fix CF.

So yeah, give me Marte plus Rizzo at their projected contracts over Freeman for 6 years and $180M. Easy choice to make.

[The Chosen One]

Yup.

Fans will support a winning team. As long as the Braves replace Freddie’s production, I don’t think it will matter much to the average fan, especially with Acuna returning next year.

Acuna returning, PLUS we are the defending World Champs.

Winning the WS to me will surely soften the blow if Freddie leaves for more money.

[Enscheff]

I said this elsewhere (maybe here, too), but the PR disaster of letting Freddie get away would be catastrophic. It is all anyone is talking about here locally. I just don't see any way AA lets it happen. He might be the one guy Liberty would intervene in favor of. He's one or two in terms of drawing power on this team, and this team has to draw to make money. It's gonna be something like 6/180 or 7/195, and we're gonna smile and like it.

I'm willing to bet anyone any amount of money they are willing to put up that Freeman doesn't sign with the Braves for more than $150M.

The rules are we must identify someone on this board to hold all wagered cash until he signs.

[msstate7]

I'm willing to bet anyone any amount of money they are willing to put up that Freeman doesn't sign with the Braves for more than $150M.

The rules are we must identify someone on this board to hold all wagered cash until he signs.

I'll hold it. I promise I won't spend it on the little Debbie Christmas cakes haha

[CJ9]

Conforto turned down the QO. Believe MLB Trade Rumors did a prediction story with us landing Conforto. Could be an interesting OF candidate.

[Enscheff]

Conforto turned down the QO. Believe MLB Trade Rumors did a prediction story with us landing Conforto. Could be an interesting OF candidate.

He fits if he's that guy sitting there without a deal in Feb.

I think that QO is going to really hurt him. He should have accepted it.

[clvclv]

I love what the Nationals do.

Defer money to the future (when you are likely to be rebuilding) to subsidize the present.

The problem with front loading contracts when you have a cheap controllable core is you aren’t maximizing a competitive advantage.

It's hard to actually like anything about the way they do business IMO. Considering you have no earthly idea how quickly your prospects will progress - and that's assuming you draft plenty that do - how on earth do you project whether you're going to be rebuilding 6-8 years in the future? They owe Corbin $60 million in 2023 and 2024 and Strasburg $70 million during those years. They have little to no chance of extending Soto if he's not willing to gut out an entire rebuild on bad teams like Freeman did. They owe Scherzer $15 million per to pitch for someone else through 2028.

[chop2chip]

It's hard to actually like anything about the way they do business IMO. Considering you have no earthly idea how quickly your prospects will progress - and that's assuming you draft plenty that do - how on earth do you project whether you're going to be rebuilding 6-8 years in the future? They owe Corbin $60 million in 2023 and 2024 and Strasburg $70 million during those years. They have little to no chance of extending Soto if he's not willing to gut out an entire rebuild on bad teams like Freeman did. They owe Scherzer $15 million per to pitch for someone else through 2028.

I promise you every front office has a year by year long term projection window (with a wider range of possible outcome the further out). The Nationals clearly identified they had a short window to maximize their current core. Corbin and Strasburg contracts were bad ideas from the jump, but the strategy is still valid. That World Series team was loaded with players they were only able to afford because of their deferral strategy.

[clvclv]

First, Marte is less than a year older than Freeman.

Second, The AAV for Marte would be much less than the AAV for Freeman.

Third, OFers tend to age much better than 1B.

Fourth, there are many options to backfill 1B, while there are almost zero options to fix CF.

So yeah, give me Marte plus Rizzo at their projected contracts over Freeman for 6 years and $180M. Easy choice to make.

1.) Which will make him a 37 year old CF that's reliant on his legs and defense to generate value.

2.) Not sure that makes much difference as long as Freeman remains productive - don't imagine there's an argument to be made (that I'll buy) that projects Marte can be more "valuable" than Freddie as both age. Steamer already projects Freeman will be worth 1.3 more WAR than Marte in 2022 - if that number remains consistent, Freddie will have been worth 5+ more WAR by the end of a 4 year Marte deal. If you're using $9 million per WAR that's pretty close to even money-wise if Marte gets the projected $20 million per and Freeman gets $30 million per.

3.) Ender - or see #1.

4.) Not arguing that - it's completely legitimate. However, if you use Steamer's 2022 projections you get 5.6 WAR for the two combined. If they combine to make $35 million, you don't think AA could come up with an acceptable CF option that projects for 1.2 WAR for $5 million that more or less evens that out? It's almost impossible to imagine he couldn't if Freeman signs for the $25 million projection.


Don't misunderstand - I think $30 million per for Freddie is quite extravagant. I just think AA (or his bosses if they made a Freeman extension an ownership-level decision rather than leaving it up to him) put himself in the position where he doesn't have a lot of choice rather than ponying it up since they didn't give him the Goldschmidt deal months ago when they had the chance.

[clvclv]

I promise you every front office has a year by year long term projection window (with a wider range of possible outcome the further out). The Nationals clearly identified they had a short window to maximize their current core. Corbin and Strasburg contracts were bad ideas from the jump, but the strategy is still valid. That World Series team was loaded with players they were only able to afford because of their deferral strategy.

Of course they do. However, I'm pretty sure the same people doing similar models for the Braves didn't have Acuna (or Ozzie) arriving nearly as fast as they did while also expecting Pache to be the CF in 2021.

Projections are wrong as often (or more than) they're right. If you give them a +/- 1 year window, it's impossible to KNOW with a lot of confidence that that $15 million for Scherzer wouldn't come in handy when trying to surround Soto with even "average" players if he doesn't want to go through 3-4 90 loss seasons during his prime. Don't forget - the Braves spent $11 million per on Markakis during a similar period just so Freddie had a running buddy.