GDT 10/16/21: Braves vs Dodgers - NLCS Game 1

[Sheffield10]

Lololol Riley isn’t a good hitter guys. My MLB branded pogs had these stats clearly shown in the back of the box lololol

[thewupk]

Lololol Riley isn’t a good hitter guys. My MLB branded pogs had these stats clearly shown in the back of the box lololol

Who said Riley isn't a good hitter?

[Enscheff]

Robert's having random lefty pitch to Albies and Riley earlier was questionable as well.

Snit didn't really have decisions to make, but they were all defensible.

Braves don't really have a bench at this point so the platoon business is besides the point.

Soler going out kind of made it moot.

Roberts did make a couple tactical mistakes.

If Gonsolin was going to only get 5 outs, why was he allowed to hit rather than double switching when he came in? That mistake cost them a PA in a 1 run game.

The biggest mistake was still snit putting Rosario and Freeman back to back when he knew the Dodgers were going to use the BP in game 1. He set them up to neutralize the 1-2 spots almost every single time through the order, and that’s exactly what the Dodgers did. Worst part about it was snit had days to make his terrible plan, and still came up with that horrible solution.

When the Dodgers start Scherzer and Buehler it won’t be a big deal to stack Rosario and Freeman at the top because they will certainly each face those RHPs at least 2x, and it may force Roberts to lift one of those guys earlier than he wanted to. But in this game 1 when everyone knew the Dodgers were going with a BP approach, starting with back to back LHHs was an unbelievably boneheaded dinosaur move. And it worked out exactly as I predicted moments after the lineup was posted.

In the end, the Braves won because Fried is a stud, Riley came up big, and the Dodgers gave the Braves a free run and also ran themselves out of an inning on the bases. Let’s try to keep that in perspective while everyone is slapping themselves on the back and feeling good about decisions that were made. They haven’t even used their A squad yet, were coming off a huge series after a long flight East, and still almost won.

Snits tactical ineptitude is still a very real problem. Of course, if Duvall runs into 3 bombs and 6 RBI it doesn’t really matter, but the problem is still real and is a disadvantage the Braves must overcome.

[nsacpi]

So what is everyone's thoughts sitting here today on going Anderson over Morton given this is actually a pretty significant and potentially series altering decision we've made.

On one hand you could argue we are simply guaranteeing Anderson two starts in first 6 games over Morton. That logic would be easy. This is a mistake.

On the other hand there is merit to 1.) extra rest for Morton after going on 3-days, 2.) keeping Anderson lined-up at home and 3.) staggering Morton to not go against scherzer - some might want our ace against him but could argue we are better off just increasing our odds in a game 3 vs. pitching Morton in a game where he's actually by a decent margin not the better pitcher. Effectively trying to avoid the scenario we had game 1 brewers where Morton is good but just gets outdueled and then we've burned him.

If this goes well it would mean the Braves either win today (or if we lose its not Andersons doing i.e. he pitches well and we lose later in the game) and then we go into game 3 having Morton in a pivotal game.

On the other hand, becomes painful if we lose in 6 and Morton was kept to one start.

Anderson is very effective against opposite handed hitters, which makes it difficult to get any sort of platoon advantage.

[Enscheff]

Anderson is very effective against opposite handed hitters, which makes it difficult to get any sort of platoon advantage.

Anderson had a .318 xwOBA vs LHH this year. That is decidedly mediocre.

We know the Dodgers are going to swap Pollock and Pujols for Bellinger and Lux. Everyone knows this now, so the Braves should be planning for it now. Not deciding what to do when the 5th inning rolls around…now.

Ideally we want Matzek to face the middle of the Dodgers order the third time they bat. That’s when they will try to unwind the platoons to get Pujols and Pollock in to regain the platoon advantage. Since Matzek is the best overall BP arm, he needs to be pitching when that unwinding happens.

This means Anderson goes through the lineup twice, and is maybe allowed to face Betts 3x. He should be pulled earlier if allowing the first non-Matzek arm out of the BP to face the pitchers spot prevents him from being forced into a bad matchup on his third batter faced. He should also be pulled a few batters early if his spot to bat comes up the half inning prior.

All of these scenarios should be assessed and the decisions made now. There is no room for gut reaction moves in games this important.

[bravesnumberone]

I would imagine the third trip through the Dodgers’ order will start in the fifth, and given that Anderson goes deep into counts and the Dodgers’ lineup is usually good at working the count, I don’t see Anderson going past five either way. If we use Matzek that early, we just have to hope Minter and Chavez can help Jackson cover the remaining innings until hopefully Smith in the ninth. Unless we are somehow up 8-0, I’m on board with Matzek going through the meat of the order’s third time through.

[Enscheff]

I would imagine the third trip through the Dodgers’ order will start in the fifth, and given that Anderson goes deep into counts and the Dodgers’ lineup is usually good at working the count, I don’t see Anderson going past five either way. If we use Matzek that early, we just have to hope Minter and Chavez can help Jackson cover the remaining innings until hopefully Smith in the ninth. Unless we are somehow up 8-0, I’m on board with Matzek going through the meat of the order’s third time through.

If it’s that early, and I think you’re correct that it probably will be, they should use someone like Chavez to get through J Turner before Matzek unwinds the platoons.

That’s another scenario you were able to foresee, and hopefully snit was able to do the same.

[chop2chip]

Roberts did make a couple tactical mistakes.

If Gonsolin was going to only get 5 outs, why was he allowed to hit rather than double switching when he came in? That mistake cost them a PA in a 1 run game.

The biggest mistake was still snit putting Rosario and Freeman back to back when he knew the Dodgers were going to use the BP in game 1. He set them up to neutralize the 1-2 spots almost every single time through the order, and that’s exactly what the Dodgers did. Worst part about it was snit had days to make his terrible plan, and still came up with that horrible solution.

When the Dodgers start Scherzer and Buehler it won’t be a big deal to stack Rosario and Freeman at the top because they will certainly each face those RHPs at least 2x, and it may force Roberts to lift one of those guys earlier than he wanted to. But in this game 1 when everyone knew the Dodgers were going with a BP approach, starting with back to back LHHs was an unbelievably boneheaded dinosaur move. And it worked out exactly as I predicted moments after the lineup was posted.

In the end, the Braves won because Fried is a stud, Riley came up big, and the Dodgers gave the Braves a free run and also ran themselves out of an inning on the bases. Let’s try to keep that in perspective while everyone is slapping themselves on the back and feeling good about decisions that were made. They haven’t even used their A squad yet, were coming off a huge series after a long flight East, and still almost won.

Snits tactical ineptitude is still a very real problem. Of course, if Duvall runs into 3 bombs and 6 RBI it doesn’t really matter, but the problem is still real and is a disadvantage the Braves must overcome.

Leading off with Rosario did create a run in the first inning. I understand your general point as it did allow Robert to stack LHP against Freeman. Ideally Snitker would have replaced Rosario with Heredia at some point.

[Heyward]

So what is everyone's thoughts sitting here today on going Anderson over Morton given this is actually a pretty significant and potentially series altering decision we've made.

On one hand you could argue we are simply guaranteeing Anderson two starts in first 6 games over Morton. That logic would be easy. This is a mistake.

On the other hand there is merit to 1.) extra rest for Morton after going on 3-days, 2.) keeping Anderson lined-up at home and 3.) staggering Morton to not go against scherzer - some might want our ace against him but could argue we are better off just increasing our odds in a game 3 vs. pitching Morton in a game where he's actually by a decent margin not the better pitcher. Effectively trying to avoid the scenario we had game 1 brewers where Morton is good but just gets outdueled and then we've burned him.

If this goes well it would mean the Braves either win today (or if we lose its not Andersons doing i.e. he pitches well and we lose later in the game) and then we go into game 3 having Morton in a pivotal game.

On the other hand, becomes painful if we lose in 6 and Morton was kept to one start.

Well, lets Morton face the tough crowd in LA, and Anderson is much better at home than on the road. But as you said, if we lose in 6, and only have one Charlie start, that will be tough to stomach.

[bravesnumberone]

If we fall down 2-1, we are going to have to think seriously about Fried going on three days’ rest. Can’t fall behind 3-1 and give them a closeout opportunity at home. Tonight isn’t a “must-win,” but it’s a must-win. Gives us so much more flexibility.

[Southcack77]

If we fall down 2-1, we are going to have to think seriously about Fried going on three days’ rest. Can’t fall behind 3-1 and give them a closeout opportunity at home. Tonight isn’t a “must-win,” but it’s a must-win. Gives us so much more flexibility.

The history is that short rest pitchers look like 4th or fifth starters on average.

The most obvious outliers I can think of off the top of my head were dominant hard stuff guys but I don't think Fried really qualifies.

Short rest is usually pretty desperate move.

[CrazyTrain]

Horrible AB by Arcia.

[CrazyTrain]

**** YES!!!

[CyYoung31]

**** YES!!!

Dude, get in the game.