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Thread: How Long Is Our Contention Window Set To Remain Open?

  1. #21
    Sabermetric Slut
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    Quote Originally Posted by thewupk View Post
    There's a decent chance it will happen.

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    Quote Originally Posted by thewupk View Post
    Put some respect on that man's name
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    Quote Originally Posted by chop2chip View Post
    It’s incredible how 11 innings completely changed the perception of one player and his contract. His innings were so stress free I basically don’t remember anything he did this postseason.
    It was still a bad contract, in a vacuum, and always has been.

    It was still an all-time elite postseason for a closer, and always will be.

    Life is tricky.
    "For all his tattooings he was on the whole a clean, comely looking cannibal."

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    Quote Originally Posted by thewupk View Post
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    Quote Originally Posted by chop2chip View Post
    It’s incredible how 11 innings completely changed the perception of one player and his contract. His innings were so stress free I basically don’t remember anything he did this postseason.
    4 one run lead saves and 2 two run lead saves isn’t exactly stress free especially since 5 of them came against 2 of the best offenses in baseball. But, whatever

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    Quote Originally Posted by Mad Dog Murph View Post
    4 one run lead saves and 2 two run lead saves isn’t exactly stress free especially since 5 of them came against 2 of the best offenses in baseball. But, whatever
    For sure. My point was to compliment Will. He had so few baserunners that his appearances were uneventful.

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    Quote Originally Posted by jpx7 View Post
    It was still a bad contract, in a vacuum, and always has been.

    It was still an all-time elite postseason for a closer, and always will be.

    Life is tricky.
    Absolutely, it’s always been the most eyebrow raising move of the AA era from an objective perspective (Ozuna of course overtakes this with the benefit of hindsight).

    My point is that this all-time elite postseason basically validates everything Will has or will do. He could be so bad next year that we cut him in June and Braves fans will still view him in a unanimously positive way. That’s truly amazing when you consider is approval rating in September was easily the lowest on the team.

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    Quote Originally Posted by chop2chip View Post
    Absolutely, it’s always been the most eyebrow raising move of the AA era from an objective perspective (Ozuna of course overtakes this with the benefit of hindsight).

    My point is that this all-time elite postseason basically validates everything Will has or will do. He could be so bad next year that we cut him in June and Braves fans will still view him in a unanimously positive way. That’s truly amazing when you consider is approval rating in September was easily the lowest on the team.
    It wasn't just that AA gave premium money to a BP arm for 3 years. Teams do that all the time, and it's not usually a disaster...just merely bad.

    My main issue was AA never gave out multi year deals. Not to Brantley, not to anyone. Then he goes out and gives a BP arm, the most volatile of all player types, 3 years? What in the world about Will Smith was so compelling it made AA give out his first 3 year FA deal?

    The Ozuna deal was acceptable because the AAV was so reasonable. His issues with the law only reinforce the idea that hitching to any FA long-ish term is risky, even if he doesn't get hurt or decline.

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    Quote Originally Posted by McCann'sCans View Post
    I would agree with the 'as long as Acuna is here' statement with the huge caveat that he has to be- and remain- healthy.
    So are the Nats in contention because they have Juan Soto?

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    Quote Originally Posted by chop2chip View Post
    Absolutely, it’s always been the most eyebrow raising move of the AA era from an objective perspective (Ozuna of course overtakes this with the benefit of hindsight).

    My point is that this all-time elite postseason basically validates everything Will has or will do. He could be so bad next year that we cut him in June and Braves fans will still view him in a unanimously positive way. That’s truly amazing when you consider is approval rating in September was easily the lowest on the team.
    I think most Braves fans still maybe think he sucks judging from threads on other kinds of message boards.

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    Braves paid fair value for Will's past performance expecting an elite reliever and have just gotten a good one (2021).

    AA is willing to pay fair value sometimes. It's not clear always what.

    But paying to shorten games wouldn't be a bad thing if you could depend on it. As it turns out a scrap heap project was more.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Southcack77 View Post
    I think most Braves fans still maybe think he sucks judging from threads on other kinds of message boards.
    I don’t think that’s true. I think Will is universally loved now.

    That’s not to say fans won’t get nervous next year when he comes in to save a 1 run lead (and curse him when he fails). All that means is his legacy will always be “6 saves, 2 wins, no runs”

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    Quote Originally Posted by Enscheff View Post
    It wasn't just that AA gave premium money to a BP arm for 3 years. Teams do that all the time, and it's not usually a disaster...just merely bad.

    My main issue was AA never gave out multi year deals. Not to Brantley, not to anyone. Then he goes out and gives a BP arm, the most volatile of all player types, 3 years? What in the world about Will Smith was so compelling it made AA give out his first 3 year FA deal?

    The Ozuna deal was acceptable because the AAV was so reasonable. His issues with the law only reinforce the idea that hitching to any FA long-ish term is risky, even if he doesn't get hurt or decline.
    It’s really bizarre, especially the role Smith assumed when he joined the team. He wasn’t even expected to be the highest leverage reliever.

    In a similar move, AA assumed a pretty bad Mark Melancon contract. Fortunately, this worked out so kudos to him, but I remember when we acquired him waiting to hear how much money the Giants were going to send in the deal and being floored when I learned we were covering 100%.

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    Quote Originally Posted by chop2chip View Post
    It’s really bizarre, especially the role Smith assumed when he joined the team. He wasn’t even expected to be the highest leverage reliever.

    In a similar move, AA assumed a pretty bad Mark Melancon contract. Fortunately, this worked out so kudos to him, but I remember when we acquired him waiting to hear how much money the Giants were going to send in the deal and being floored when I learned we were covering 100%.
    He was spending the available money on shoring up the biggest weakness.

    AA does believe in splurges to address weakness.

    Drew Smyly is one of those, but so is Morton and Donaldson. Usually to address a fatally deficient position.

    I wouldn't be shocked if he spent on Marte and Soler and a leverage righty. Maybe not likely but not shocking.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Southcack77 View Post
    He was spending the available money on shoring up the biggest weakness.

    AA does believe in splurges to address weakness.

    Drew Smyly is one of those, but so is Morton and Donaldson. Usually to address a fatally deficient position.

    I wouldn't be shocked if he spent on Marte and Soler and a leverage righty. Maybe not likely but not shocking.
    Could always trade for the final season of Kimbrel. That feels like a very Anthopoulos move.
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    I'm hoping another 4-5 years. Like others have said Acuna is a major key. Need some top notch hits in the draft really soon to extend that window.

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    I think the team is in good shape through 2024. After that I expect a quick decline to being a basement dweller. The bad drafting hasnt caught up to us yet. It will, although I am sure people will blame everything but the lack of quality prospects from bad drafts. We are already at the "our farm sucks so we need college players" stage of decline where we fail to realize that is the reason the farm sucks in the first place. I call it Royals disease.
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    It’s over."


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    3-4 years minimum. Obviously, injury/slash major regression could change that outlook. But regardless of Freeman, we appear to be in a similar boat to where we were this time last year at this same time. 2 great hitters (Riley and Acuna) supplemented by Ozzie, Swanson, and TDA, at least for another year. Fried, Anderson, and a plethora of good pitching prospects. Maybe Soroka. . Then you have some young guys that could step up like Pache, Waters, Langy, etc.


    Should at least remain competitive over the next 3-4 years, if not straight dominating the NL East. How we do developing prospects will determine 2025 and beyond.
    Last edited by Carp; 11-05-2021 at 03:38 AM.

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    Quote Originally Posted by jpx7 View Post
    It was still a bad contract, in a vacuum, and always has been.

    It was still an all-time elite postseason for a closer, and always will be.

    Life is tricky.
    Agreed. I'll probably always be stressed when he comes in, but having him for this run will make it all so worth it.

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