2022 Braves ZiPS

[Enscheff]

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2022-zip...tlanta-braves/

Other than FG placing Duvall in RF and Acuna/Pache in CF, this all seems reasonable. Barring some massive trade for Reynolds, I suspect the plan will be Duvall in CF, Acuna in RF, and some combination of Ozuna and another FA in LF.

The hole left by Freeman is glaring. I think we all expect 1B to be manned by 1 of 3 guys: Freeman, Olson or Rizzo.

This idea we have that it's Freeman plus a lesser LFer vs Rizzo plus a better LFer is reasonable, until we look around and see that there isn't really a "better LFer" remaining to sign. Conforto has a chance to be a 3+ win guy, but I don't think I want to risk downgrading from Freeman to Rizzo for the chance to roll the dice on Conforto.

Last we heard, the Braves offered 5/135 and Freeman's initial ask was 6/200. It seems to me there's a deal to be struck for 5 years with an option that carries a ~$5M buyout plus maybe a nice signing bonus. Something like 5/145 ($5M paid up front from WS revenue) plus a 6th year option for $25M with a $5M buyout to bring to total guarantee to 5/150. Then you bank on 2 good years from Freeman where he's still an MVP candidate, and brace for the decline...remembering not to be mad when the 36/37 year old guy at 1B is producing 1-2 WAR for $28M because that was the cost of keeping him.

[MadduxFanII]

ZiPs loves the pitching staff: Fried with four WAR and a 139 ERA+, Morton at 3.8 and 131 and Anderson at 2.8 and 121. Also high on Ynoa, and even projects Wright, Strider and Muller as league average. Likes the bullpen, too.

[thewupk]

For once Braves' fans don't have to cry about how ZIPS is "unfair" to the team.

[GovClintonTyree]

Well, ZIPS has been the low man on us for a long time. Almost makes me nervous that they feel like we might be average/adequate.