There are two broad kinds of trades. Trades that involve one team trading for the future while the other team is strengthening its present. The second kind involves trades where teams match up because of differing current strengths and weaknesses.
The Braves are built to contend now. At the same time they aren't in a financial position to trade away the future for the present. So a major trade of the first type is unlikely anytime soon. This means over the next year or two the front office will be focusing on the second type of trade. This makes it useful to discuss where our system is currently weak and where it is currently strong. By currently I mean at the major league and upper minor league level rather than lower levels.
Areas of Strength/Surplus
1. Starting pitching: In the majors and AAA the list of starting pitchers includes Medlen, Minor, Beachy, Teheran, Wood, Floyd, Hale, Martin, Maya, Northcraft, Thomas, Schlosser. Plus Graham if healthy. That's a lot of depth. It helps to explain why we were willing to move Gilmartin for Doumit.
2. Right-handed pitching: This obviously overlaps with #1 above. But here you can add the guys in the pen: Kimbrel, Walden, Carpenter, Gearrin, Varvaro, Vasquez, Simmons, Jaime, Lamm, Obispo, Batista, Hoyt. That's a very deep group. Wren dipped into this reservoir when he shipped Rasmus for Downs last year.
3. Catcher: Gattis and Bethancourt are likely to overlap at the major league level for four of their six pre-free agency years. If both develop it will not be an optimal use of resources to keep both. The situation could become more crowded if Caratini shows an ability to stick at catcher.
4. Outfield: We have the current incumbents--Heyward, BJ and Justin. But there are some strong second-tier prospects coming up in Terdoslavich, Elander, Wren and Cunningham, not to mention a couple corner infield prospects who can potentially be moved to outfield. They are all second-tier prospects, which means they don't project as major league starting material. But there is a chance one will develop unexpectedly a la Martin Prado. I would watch this as potentially becoming an area of surplus over the next year.
Areas of Need/Weakness
1) Second base: This is the position where internal candidates are least likely to fill the team's needs. We go into spring training hoping one of La Stella, Uggla, Pastornicky and Pena seizes the bull by the horns. I am fine with that. But we should recognize that this is the position we are most likely to make a trade for a mid-season upgrade.
2) Lefty relief: Not a glaring area of need but enough question marks to make it a potential problem. Will Avilan be healthy after the heavy usage last year? How quickly will Venters return from TJ surgery? What kind of pitcher will he be? Can Buchter improve his control? Will we be in a position to move Wood to the pen? Can Thomas take another step or two forward and become a major league pitcher? Is Severino an option? All these questions mean we have to keep on eye on lefty relief as a potential area of need.
I predict that our next significant trade we make will essentially involve trading from one of the four areas listed as areas of surplus for one of the two areas listed as areas of need.
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