As an average over 8 years? Your expectations are a little high, imo. He's going to be 36 at the end of this contract. If he's still putting up better than 2-3 WAR seasons after at age 34, we should be very happy. In reality, his last 3 years are likely to be replacement level or worse.
Zips projects 13.4 fWAR over 1st 3 years. That means to avg 3.0 fWAR over the contract, he'd only have to get 1.8 avg over the last 5 years. To avg 2.5, he'd need to avg 1.3. If we expect him to fall off a cliff like that in year 4, probably wasn't smart to extend him so long
Again, we are talking averages. You have to remember his final 3 seasons are likely to be pretty bad overall. We're clearly paying him for his remaining prime, the next 4-5 seasons as they fit in our window. That's the reality of big contracts.
I would expect Olson to age something like this in fWAR:
8-10 fWAR over the first 2 years
8-10 fWAR over the next 3 years (probably misses some time, but remains a force when in the lineup)
<5 WAR combined year 6 and 7
0-2 WAR (or less if he's really bad) year 8.
Basically, we should reasonably expect him to be relatively healthy and good for the next 4-5 yrs. After that, he most likely declines rapidly/plays less than 125 games annually the remaining 3 seasons. And year 8 is likely to be pretty brutal.
Last edited by Carp; 06-29-2022 at 09:17 AM.
Because Olson is much younger and wasn't going to sign a 5 year deal - that part isn't that hard to figure out.
Olson will be the same age Freeman is today in 2026, and he'll NEVER make more than $22 million a year. At that point (2026), Olson will be owed 4/88 and Freeman will be 35 and will still be owed 2/54. Betting on a 32 year old Olson to come closer to what he'll be owed at that time isn't exactly rocket science. The deferrals in Freeman's deals will help offset that somewhat, but none of the reports we've seen have mentioned that ANY of the 5/135 the Braves offered was deferred.
Has there EVER been a statement and question a certain someone should absolutely never have made and asked publicly more than...
Kinda pathetic to see yourself as a message board knight in shining armor. How impotent does someone have to be in real life to resort to playing hero on a message board?
In typical Inciarte fashion his first hit as a Mutt was a 54mph squibber that went about 12 feet.
I don't mind the deal. I reject the idea that AA signed Olson to an 8-year deal expecting him to fall off a cliff in year 5.
Obviously not AA, but I would imagine he expects something like 4.5 fWAR the first 2 seasons, 4 fWAR years 3-4, 3 fWAR years 5-6, and 2 fWAR years 7-8. This would be an average of 3.4 fWAR/year for contract. An avg around 2.5 fWAR/year might be acceptable money wise, but it would be disappointing
Last edited by msstate7; 06-29-2022 at 01:41 PM.
How much would we hate Jason Castro in a braves uniform? He's obviously a good catcher, but .104 BA with .325 ops
I agree you do not put that amount of resources in prospects and cash into a low value defensive position (1B) unless you are expecting an impact player for years.
With inflation of all things, it is possible Olson could still be underpaid at 22 million with a 3 WAR season.
Olson is making 22 million from age 29-35 (15 million this year, age 28). That should be most of his prime and likely a couple of decline years. Option for age 36 season.
FF is making 27 million from age 32-37. Then 57 million deferred.
I think AA is thinking he has a 4+ win player from age 28-33. Mix in some 5 win seasons. 34-35 maybe more like a 3 WIN guy. In full seasons in a gigantic ball park the guy was a 4+ win guy. Not crazy to think 5 wins is reasonable with his age curve and a much smaller park.