Top 100 Prospects Lists

[nsacpi]

BA and BP will be out with their lists soon. The first outfit to put theirs out is mlb.com. A couple ex-BA guys, Jonathan Mayo and Jim Callis, put that list together. Two Bravos made their top 100: Lucas Sims at 60 and Christian Bethancourt at 82.

Here is the entire list:

http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article/mlb/...nt_id=66929504

[weso1]

Braves are going to have some big decisions to make if our good young players refuse to sign extensions. I really hope the Braves don't decide to go into some quasi competitive mode where they trade Heyward or Kimbrel for a meh major leaguer.... like they did with Tex. The fact that we only have 2 top 100 prospects and none in the top 50 shows that we need to rebuild the farm a bit after graduating so much top talent these past several years.

[nsacpi]

I think we are hitting a lull after some incredibly prolific years. The following players have come up in the past four years: Heyward, Kimbrel, Beachy, Freeman, Minor, Simmons, Avilan, Teheran, Gattis, Wood, Terdoslavich. That's an amazing haul. Our farm system also generated a number of prospects we used in trades, most notably Randall Delgado.

We'll be fine as long as the lull does not last more than a year. Looking at some of the things BA has written about Mauricio Cabrera, I think there is a good chance he'll be on their top 100 list. I also think they will rank Sims higher than mlb.com did. Peraza and/or Caratini will probably make the Top 100 in a year or two. And there are always a couple guys who go on to have fine major league careers in spite of never making a Top 100 list. I don't believe that any of Prado, Medlen, Gattis or Avilan ever made a Top 100 list. Wood never made a Top 100 either, but that was a function of his advancing to the majors so fast.

[keithlaw]

I don't believe that any of Prado, Medlen, Gattis or Avilan ever made a Top 100 list.

Those 4 guys are great reasons to take prospectors opinions with a grain of salt. People seem to forget that everyone had pegged Medlen's upside as a 5th starter with the most likely outcome being a swingman since they didn't think he could hold up in a major league rotation. They ranked him the same as they do Hale and Martin now.

edit: I'm also optimistic about where our farm system will be at the end of next season. A lot of our top guys (Peraza, Sims, Cabrera, Caratini, Salazar, Reyes, Camargo) are all very young toolsy guys who could take huge steps forward next season. Plus the Braves seem to have a knack at finding diamonds in the rough so who knows who else will emerge.

[nsacpi]

Yeah, these lists need to be viewed with a certain perspective. Here's a great article that tracks the success and bust rates of prospects on BA's Top 100 list. It breaks things down by position players and pitchers and shows how the bust and success rates have evolved over time.

http://camdendepot.blogspot.com/2013...mckinneys.html

[nsacpi]

BP has Sims at 40 and Bethancourt at 87.

Here is their list:

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/ar...rticleid=22670

In the comments section there was this about Jose Peraza:


How close was Jose Peraza to making the list?

Jan 27, 2014 07:25 AMlinkrating: 0






BP staff member Jason Parks

BP staff

(37601)



I'm a fan. Was on initial draft. Should jump this season.

[Enscheff]

The Braves have 2 players on the BP list. Only 4 teams have less than the Braves.

The farm system is a bottom-10 system right now (and maybe worse, perhaps bottom-5). The Braves seriously need a few guys to figure it out, or it's going to get very ugly once the current young core gets too expensive and leaves town. A bottom-10 farm system coupled with a bottom-10 payroll....well, I don't need to explain how that is going to translate to (lack of) success.

Wren has 2 choices:

1. Try to win it all in the next 2 years, or
2. Trade away guys like JUp, Heyward, Minor, Freeman, etc when it becomes apparent they will not sign extensions.

Wren never, ever, sells high on a player, which is why he should have gone all in to get to the WS in the next 2 years. No addition to the rotation, and no fix for 2B means another season of falling short in 2014.

[clvclv]

The Braves have 2 players on the BP list. Only 4 teams have less than the Braves.

The farm system is a bottom-10 system right now (and maybe worse, perhaps bottom-5). The Braves seriously need a few guys to figure it out, or it's going to get very ugly once the current young core gets too expensive and leaves town. A bottom-10 farm system coupled with a bottom-10 payroll....well, I don't need to explain how that is going to translate to (lack of) success.

Wren has 2 choices:

1. Try to win it all in the next 2 years, or
2. Trade away guys like JUp, Heyward, Minor, Freeman, etc when it becomes apparent they will not sign extensions.

Wren never, ever, sells high on a player, which is why he should have gone all in to get to the WS in the next 2 years. No addition to the rotation, and no fix for 2B means another season of falling short in 2014.

The problem with this line of thinking is this...

It's January 27th.

Has David Price been traded? Chris Sale? Homer Bailey? Jeff Samardzija? Chase Headley?

There are 185 days left until the trading deadline. Believe it or not, going "all in" trades have happened over slightly shorter periods in the past.

[PawPawMaxwell]

The problem with this line of thinking is this...

It's January 27th.

Has David Price been traded? Chris Sale? Homer Bailey? Jeff Samardzija? Chase Headley?


There are 185 days left until the trading deadline. Believe it or not, going "all in" trades have happened over slightly shorter periods in the past.

Where are the prospects needed to get those difference makers you deem viable?

[clvclv]

Where are the prospects needed to get those difference makers you deem viable?

Who says everyone involved in potential deals is a prospect?

Unfortunately I haven't been able to sit in on the meetings Wren has had with other posters, so I don't have concrete information about what moves he may or may not consider like several here seem to have. Martin Prado was included in the Upton deal when Arizona agreed to include Johnson as a "throw-in". If B. J. returns to anything resembling his career numbers before the deadline, would Wren include Heyward in a deal to land an "Ace" if he could get a "throw-in" like Dayan Viciedo/Matt Joyce/Chris Heisey? Might he do it if Bethancourt continues to improve with the bat and put Gattis back out in LF? The truth is I have no idea, and contrary to what most crow when standing on their soap boxes no one else here knows either.

The point remains that July 31st is 185 days away. Since we also don't know the answer to whether Teheran, Minor, or even Medlen could actually step forward and become an "Ace", wouldn't some folks around here scream about how stupid Wren is if that happened and he traded ANYONE (prospects or guys on the MLB roster) away???

[nsacpi]

In the aftermath of the JD Drew and Teixeira trades, I would be surprised to see any sort of "all in" trade anytime soon. I would think Sims would be off limits. Bethancourt I could see getting dealt, but we have to be realistic about the return.

[Enscheff]

The problem is that Wren played this entire offseason with his hands tied by the fact he couldn't take on anything more than a 1 year contract. What is the only reason he could have possibly wanted maximum payroll flexibility next offseason? Answer: he planned on signing the young core to extensions.

Well, he extended nobody. So now he has a bunch of scrap heap players on 1 year contracts AND the young core still haven't been extended.

This offseason has been a total bust for the Braves. I don't see how it can be viewed any other way.

Wren failed to improve the team for 2014/2015, and he failed to extend the 2 year window of opportunity to win with the current roster. He accomplished exactly nothing this offseason.

[nsacpi]

The problem is that Wren played this entire offseason with his hands tied by the fact he couldn't take on anything more than a 1 year contract. What is the only reason he could have possibly wanted maximum payroll flexibility next offseason? Answer: he planned on signing the young core to extensions.

Well, he extended nobody. So now he has a bunch of scrap heap players on 1 year contracts AND the young core still haven't been extended.

This offseason has been a total bust for the Braves. I don't see how it can be viewed any other way.

Wren failed to improve the team for 2014/2015, and he failed to extend the 2 year window of opportunity to win with the current roster. He accomplished exactly nothing this offseason.

There were two main areas people wanted him to try to improve the team. One was to get an ace. I thought this was implausible all along given the prohibitive costs of acquiring that type of player.

The other area was second base. This is a much more plausible area he could have made an acquisition. We have debated this in other threads. Guys like Phillips and Kinsler were not attractive to me due to their ages and contracts. Howie Kendrick was one guy we agreed on as being a good target. We also disagreed about whether the internal options should be given a shot during the first two or three months of the season. I thought it made sense to give them a shot even if the odds favored having to make a move in mid-season. You've argued we should have gotten a second baseman in the off-season. I can see the case for that. But I don't thing the fact Wren didn't get a second baseman means that he had a disastrous off-season.

As for extending Heyward, Freeman, Simmons, I think we all would like to see that happen. At the right price. None of us know what the players in question are looking for.

[Enscheff]

Right, but it is safe to assume the current roster was not improved (no matter how you think it should have been improved) because Wren needed money NEXT year if he wanted to extend the core. So he handcuffed his attempts at improving the current team by limiting himself to 1 year deals so he could afford to extend the core next year, and then failed to extend the core.

He neither improved the current roster, nor extended the current window to win with the current roster. A good team did not get any better, and nothing was done to extend the amount of time the team is going to be good. The organization improved in no way, neither now, nor in the future. To me, that is nothing short of a complete failure of an offseason.

[nsacpi]

Right, but it is safe to assume the current roster was not improved (no matter how you think it should have been improved) because Wren needed money NEXT year if he wanted to extend the core. So he handcuffed his attempts at improving the current team by limiting himself to 1 year deals so he could afford to extend the core next year, and then failed to extend the core.

He neither improved the current roster, nor extended the current window to win with the current roster. A good team did not get any better, and nothing was done to extend the amount of time the team is going to be good. The organization improved in no way, neither now, nor in the future. To me, that is nothing short of a complete failure of an offseason.

Actually, there is a budget crunch next year that is independent of the issue of extending the core. It has to do with the additional arbitration raises players will get in 2015. None of our core players become free agents until after 2015. The cost of extending them into their free agency years (if in fact we do extend them) comes into play in 2016 and beyond.

The issue of the 2015 budget crunch was nicely laid out by cajunrevenge in this thread:

http://www.chopcountry.com/forums/showthread.php?t=997

Btw if the 2015 crunch is really a limiting factor on who we can acquire for this year it is interesting to contemplate how that affects any mid-season move for a second baseman. Wren would have to focus on guys who hit free agency after 2014 (Bonifacio and Kelly Johnson for example) or younger players who are either pre-arb or on very favorable contracts (Altuve for example). Or he could be creative and try to swing a deal that would create some financial flexibility in 2015, but the price of that would probably be moving more attractive prospects. Or he could worry about 2015 when it arrives with the understanding he might need to move someone like Kimbrel, Medlen or Chris Johnson to get under budget.

[clvclv]

Right, but it is safe to assume the current roster was not improved (no matter how you think it should have been improved) because Wren needed money NEXT year if he wanted to extend the core. So he handcuffed his attempts at improving the current team by limiting himself to 1 year deals so he could afford to extend the core next year, and then failed to extend the core.

He neither improved the current roster, nor extended the current window to win with the current roster. A good team did not get any better, and nothing was done to extend the amount of time the team is going to be good. The organization improved in no way, neither now, nor in the future. To me, that is nothing short of a complete failure of an offseason.

Exactly how much do you think you can improve on a 96 win season? I mean legitimate improvement, not pie-in-the-sky hopes and dreams.

Has anyone you wanted to extend become a free-agent? Will they before tomorrow? Next month? Next year?

Why are his "hands tied"? Because we have arguably the most talented young team in baseball filled with players that 95% of the organizations in MLB would love to have TODAY. Poll the other 29 GMs in the game and ask them if they feel sorry for someone with Medlen, Minor, Teheran, Beachy, Wood, Freeman, Simmons, Heyward, the Uptons, Kimbrel and the rest of our pen and I bet you he doesn't get ONE sympathy vote.

You don't blow up what's been built, especially when facing the Braves' financial situation - you give them as many chances to compete as possible and go get them help IF the right piece comes along. If this team is healthy and as good as many think it can be as currently constructed come July, I have EVERY faith that Wren will go get the piece that's needed (assuming there is one that'll be a significant difference-maker).

[nsacpi]

If this team is healthy and as good as many think it can be as currently constructed come July, I have EVERY faith that Wren will go get the piece that's needed (assuming there is one that'll be a significant difference-maker).

I agree. The odds are that piece that will be needed will be a second baseman. But we can't be sure of that and Wren imo was right to put off addressing that until the team has actually played at least a couple months to see how things shake out.

[thethe]

Our friend Keith Law ranked the Braves as the 22nd system in baseball.

[Gary82]

Our friend Keith Law ranked the Braves as the 22nd system in baseball.

That's gotta change pretty soon.

[thethe]

That's gotta change pretty soon.

It will one year from now.