GDT 6/13/22: Braves @ Gnats - Time To Swat Some Bugs

[Slippyjms]

Acuña RF
Swanson SS
Riley 3B
Olson 1B
Albies 2B
d’Arnaud C
Ozuna DH
Duvall LF
Harris ll CF

Anderson P

[Hulavol]

I was gonna post the GDT a little while ago, and thought better of it - Slippy has come back blazing hot from his rehab….

That typed, tonight is the night for Harris II to get the first MLB homer.

[Heyward]

Think the streak ends tonight unfortunately.

[jpx7]

Tough to not see Contreras' name in there.

Braves need to figure out what to do with Ozuna, or Ozuna needs to figure out what he's doing at the plate. His batted-ball metrics aren't terrible, and he's definitely underperforming them (.269 xBA, .530 xSLG, .351 xwoba vs .285 woba); nevertheless, his average EV is down almost 5 mph from 2020, and his walk rate had dropped by almost two-thirds (14.2 to 5.3 BB%). Those are concerning trends; and, even if 2020 was a career-year, he walked a lot more and hit the ball a lot harder in all the seasons preceding 2020, as well.

[Slippyjms]

Tough to not see Contreras' name in there.

Braves need to figure out what to do with Ozuna, or Ozuna needs to figure out what he's doing at the plate. His batted-ball metrics aren't terrible, and he's definitely underperforming them (.269 xBA, .530 xSLG, .351 xwoba vs .285 woba); nevertheless, his average EV is down almost 5 mph from 2020, and his walk rate had dropped by almost two-thirds (14.2 to 5.3 BB%). Those are concerning trends; and, even if 2020 was a career-year, he walked a lot more and hit the ball a lot harder in all the seasons preceding 2020, as well.

I think what to do with Ozuna is pretty clear ATM. d’Arnaud should get 4-5 starts a week at C and Contreras should get 5-6 between C and DH. That should leave about 3 starts a week at DH for Ozuna.

[Hulavol]

Ozuna is going to rake at some point… just like Duvall and Olson and Dansby before them. Back of his baseball card says so. He’s relatively still too young and too talented to just suddenly fall off of the Dale Murphy cliff.

[msstate7]

Tough to not see Contreras' name in there.

Braves need to figure out what to do with Ozuna, or Ozuna needs to figure out what he's doing at the plate. His batted-ball metrics aren't terrible, and he's definitely underperforming them (.269 xBA, .530 xSLG, .351 xwoba vs .285 woba); nevertheless, his average EV is down almost 5 mph from 2020, and his walk rate had dropped by almost two-thirds (14.2 to 5.3 BB%). Those are concerning trends; and, even if 2020 was a career-year, he walked a lot more and hit the ball a lot harder in all the seasons preceding 2020, as well.

Compare the same stats for Olson...
.251 BA, .262 xBA
.459 slugging, .450 xSLG
.353 wOBA, .352 xwoba

If we aren't worried about Olson, we shouldn't be worried about ozuna imo considering ozuna has basically the same xStats

[Garmel]

[Slippyjms]

Ozuna is going to rake at some point… just like Duvall and Olson and Dansby before them. Back of his baseball card says so. He’s relatively still too young and too talented to just suddenly fall off of the Dale Murphy cliff.

Compare the same stats for Olson...
.251 BA, .262 xBA
.459 slugging, .450 xSLG
.353 wOBA, .352 xwoba

If we aren't worried about Olson, we shouldn't be worried about ozuna imo considering ozuna has basically the same xStats

The difference between Duvall Olson and Swanson vs Ozuna is that they can actually catch the ball.

[msstate7]

The difference between Duvall Olson and Swanson vs Ozuna is that they can actually catch the ball.

The plan was always for ozuna to DH this season. The huge difference in wOBA and xwoba is basically a mirror image of soler last year at the break. Fortunately for us, I'm sure AA put a lot of weight in this stat difference.

[Mad Dog Murph]

The difference between Duvall Olson and Swanson vs Ozuna is that they can actually catch the ball.

He can catch, but he throws like this

[chop2chip]

Compare the same stats for Olson...
.251 BA, .262 xBA
.459 slugging, .450 xSLG
.353 wOBA, .352 xwoba

If we aren't worried about Olson, we shouldn't be worried about ozuna imo considering ozuna has basically the same xStats

There is plenty to worry about Ozuna the hitter. With 2020 as an important exception, Ozuna’s results don’t align with the hard hit data. Whether it’s speed, top spin, etc., there is a pattern of underperformance. On top of that, his exit velocities are down almost 5 MPH from 2020. His line drive % has cratered 10 points. Players who are slow that hit ground balls and fly balls with average exit velocities, aren’t going to perform well.

If Olson remained a .350 wOBA player, that would be a disappointment. But his underlying metrics are excellent (elite exit velocity, barrel, chase rate, etc). The only difference is he’s hitting more line drives and less fly balls (less singles/doubles, more home runs)

[msstate7]

There is plenty to worry about Ozuna the hitter. With 2020 as an important exception, Ozuna’s results don’t align with the hard hit data. Whether it’s speed, top spin, etc., there is a pattern of underperformance. On top of that, his exit velocities are down almost 5 MPH from 2020. His line drive % has cratered 10 points. Players who are slow that hit ground balls and fly balls with average exit velocities, aren’t going to perform well.

If Olson remained a .350 wOBA player, that would be a disappointment. But his underlying metrics are excellent (elite exit velocity, barrel, chase rate, etc). The only difference is he’s hitting more line drives and less fly balls (less singles/doubles, more home runs)

Zips, steamer, FGDC, The Bat, and The Batx all have him at .328 wOBA (currently .285) and 108 wRC+ (currently 80). They think he's gonna rebound, and so do i. Guess we'll see if y'all right or not

[chop2chip]

Zips, steamer, FGDC, The Bat, and The Batx all have him at .328 wOBA (currently .285) and 108 wRC+ (currently 80). They think he's gonna rebound, and so do i. Guess we'll see if y'all right or not

He’s a career 111 wRC+, so there is room for improvement. Keep in mind, these systems will almost always predict players will play to their career averages because it’s the best predictor for future performance for most players.

But the comparison you painted was “if you aren’t worried about Olson, then you can’t be worried Ozuna” (paraphrase). That comparison is mularkey.

[Mad Dog Murph]

I hate playing the nationals. F’ing blackouts in NC.

Joe said on radio a pop up storm and the tarp is on the field. Should be a short delay they say

[msstate7]

I hate playing the nationals. F’ing blackouts in NC.

Joe said on radio a pop up storm and the tarp is on the field. Should be a short delay they say

Chips just said up to 1:45 mins, I think... maybe :45 mins to an hour

[mfree80]

Chip said on TV a bigger storm in 45min, so maybe 1:45.

[Mad Dog Murph]

Whoever these clowns are on the local Atlanta station during the break, they are the worst.

[msstate7]

Got an update?

[Mad Dog Murph]

Got an update?

Nope. Stopped listening, my ears were starting to bleed.