Uggla-How Long a Leash?

[zitothebrave]

In a perfect world, the Braves would release Uggla and call up TLS. Is that going to happen? No. Why? Because this isn't fantasy baseball. The Braves are not going to eat $20MM+ ...

So instead of eating cost by selling Uggla to the highest bidder (someone will pay a few million for him as a recovery project, see Lowe, Derek) you want the Braves to sell Uggla, probably include a prospect, to bring in Phillips an aging 2B who's under contract for 2 more seasons than Uggla and for 24 million more. So we're taking on more money, and likely will be in the same boat 2 years from now when we're paying Phillips 27M and he's not hitting.

PHillip's wRC+ last 4 years to this year

122
101
91
61

Uggla is on a similar slip when you go back to 5 years

135
111
104
91
58

Philips of course had Uggla beat defensively, but he's not gonna maintain his high level of defense into his mid 30s, players don't do that.

[gilesfan]

2012- .313/.412/.528
2013- .279/.362/.457

vs.

2012- .220/.348/.384
2013- .179/.309/.362

[Hawk]

So instead of eating cost by selling Uggla to the highest bidder (someone will pay a few million for him as a recovery project, see Lowe, Derek) you want the Braves to sell Uggla, probably include a prospect, to bring in Phillips an aging 2B who's under contract for 2 more seasons than Uggla and for 24 million more.

I suggested including the prospect for salary relief.

Would I take on Phillips for an additional $~10MM? Yes, without hesitation. Would that cause us to lose any players? Nope.

His defense will stick (shows literally no signs of decline) and that's ultimately more valuable than his bat (which isn't half-bad either).

[zitothebrave]

I suggested including the prospect for salary relief.

Would I take on Phillips for an additional $10MM? Yes, without hesitation. Would that cause us to lose any players? Nope.

You think that 10M wouldn't make us lose players? I know it's not a ton but say we're 2M away from Heyward, wouldn't that money go a long way?

And again, we'll just be in the same boat in no time when Phillips isn't a gold glove level fielder and hitting like dookie.

[Hawk]

You think that 10M wouldn't make us lose players? I know it's not a ton but say we're 2M away from Heyward, wouldn't that money go a long way?

That depends on your beliefs regarding the team's financial situation. I believe they could eat Phillips' entire contract and still afford Heyward, J. Upton, and David Price (a bit tongue in cheek, but I think there's much more flexibility than many realize). I'm playing it conservative for the sake of debate.

[gilesfan]

Meanwhile odds are TLS at his worst is something like .280/.350/.410. .

Somehow I missed this thethe level post until know. At worst......really?

[PurpleBrave]

Package Uggla and Heyward together and trade them to someone in the division for some bullpen help. Nobody will take Uggla and his contract alone, but if you throw in Heyward it may be the carrot needed to complete the deal. Then Heyward comes onto his new team like a trojan horse and continues to stink. That way our rivals just spend 10+ mil on a bad second baseman and an outfielder who will show eternal promise.

[zitothebrave]

That depends on your beliefs regarding the team's financial situation. I believe they could eat Phillips' entire contract and still afford Heyward, J. Upton, and David Price. But I'm playing it conservative for the sake of debate.

Maybe. I'm not one to assume that we're gonna be in an amazing payroll situtation. FOr sure better than we had been, but I would never ever ever assume that we can say eff it to taking on 10M bucks. We're not the Tiggers, Angels, or Dodgers. Much less the Yankmees.

[nsacpi]

Uggla and Harang to the Yankees for a pastrami sammich

[zitothebrave]

Somehow I missed this thethe level post until know. At worst......really?

Odds are yes, TLS doesn't K and hits lots of line drives, that usually leads to a good average, he walks a lot, and he has doubles power. Guess what his ZIPS projection is? .275/.340/.410

[PurpleBrave]

Odds are yes, TLS doesn't K and hits lots of line drives, that usually leads to a good average, he walks a lot, and he has doubles power. Guess what his ZIPS projection is? .275/.340/.410

Maybe that's the problem. Walks seem to be something frowned upon in the clubhouse. Until he gets those walks down, he can count on staying down in the minors until he figures it out.

[gilesfan]

Odds are yes, TLS doesn't K and hits lots of line drives, that usually leads to a good average, he walks a lot, and he has doubles power. Guess what his ZIPS projection is? .275/.340/.410

So Zips is a worse case scenario projection?

Just fyi, but The zips estimate I have from before the season was .243/.297/.355
Steamer currently has .278/.338/.388

[zitothebrave]

So Zips is a worse case scenario projection?

Just fyi, but The zips estimate I have from before the season was .243/.297/.355
Steamer currently has .278/.338/.388

The ZIPS from the season before was before he hit AA of course it's gonna be way down. As far as Steamer goes, basically it's the same but with slightly less power. Which given his minor league low being .131 every other season was over .150 I'm guessing he'd be over .100 if I just had to guess.

[gilesfan]

ZIPS is worse case scenario?

[zitothebrave]

Zips is a collection of projections that are usually low on minors. Of course he could be worse than that of he has **** luck or forgets how to be patient. But given his skill set he's a high floor guy.

[gilesfan]

Its pretty interesting that TLS's "floor" is Neil Walker.

[zitothebrave]

Walker who's career slash is .270/.340/.420? Yeah way off from what I said.

Also walker had worse k/bb minor league numbers

[gilesfan]

Walker who's career slash is .270/.340/.420? Yeah way off from what I said.

Also walker had worse k/bb minor league numbers

So because those are his average numbers, you consider those his "floor?" That's interesting.

[Dalyn]

I know his floor isn't even in the same building as Uggla's.

[zitothebrave]

So because those are his average numbers, you consider those his "floor?" That's interesting.

You said his floor is Neil Walker. Woudl you like me to take Walker's worst season?

.273/.334/.408. Again sooooooo far from what I said.

ALso to compare the 2 as prospects.

Walker struck out 15.6% of the time, walked 6.4% of the time (though in his defense with the latter, he did improve as he moved up since he was a HS draftee you can give him some slack) with a .167 iso

TLS struck out 8.6% of the time walked 10.9% of the time and has a .155 iso.

Again in defense of Walker, he was younger and therefor less polished at the start of his career. But TLS is a freak. Since his rookie season in Rome, he's never struck out more than he walked (28K to 26 BB that year) so you're looking at a kid who'll likely walk a lot and not K a lot. Unlike say Simmons, he doesn't have an uppercut swing so he should have a low BABIP to counter his low K rate.

TLS is gonna hit. His concerns are health and defense.