Grissom and Yates Up

[Russ2dollas]

FG projects Grissom at .264/.324/.391 (almost exactly MLB average). That would be a good outcome for these next few weeks, and we should be very satisfied with such results.

I'm guessing he shows a little more power than that.

Grissom has been a better hitter than Harris in basically all facets. At least to my memory of stats and discussions of prospects. I have been very surprised by how well Harris has hit.

The issues with Grissom has been defense. IF he hits really well and plays solid D at 2B, does that mean he can play SS? Not for me. But they will get some idea of how he handles big league positioning, coaching, pressure, etc.

Dansby is on another planet as a SS per everyone. But that is now. Dansby is 28. How many years of great defense does he have? How many of good defense?

If albies is healthy, not sure what you do. Maybe Grissom could play LF or DH. Maybe you just send him down to protect service time.

I think the guy can hit. A lot of guys take a while to adjust to MLB breaking pitches. And he may not have the in game power to be an impact bat. But I think he's going to be 800 OPS guy with OBP over power.

[jpack1]

If he can OPS .750, that would be a nice addition to this lineup with the added speed he should bring.

[Russ2dollas]

If he can OPS .750, that would be a nice addition to this lineup with the added speed he should bring.

agree.

I would also add can he field the position? I think infield defense is devalued with the Ks, shifts and the emphasis on fly balls. That said, if he can't turn a double play from 2B that could be a big impact.

[CyYoung31]

If he can OPS .750, that would be a nice addition to this lineup with the added speed he should bring.

Big ask.

[chop2chip]

There’s no way we can realistically expect Grissom to succeed with 97 AA PAs under his belt. It’s just not something that happens in baseball.

I’m stoked to see this kid in action though.

I don’t care about the results. I’m ecstatic to look at the statcast data.

[Dalyn]

We should be crazy happy if he pulls off .750.

[SJ24]

The Braves have the two youngest players in the Major Leagues.

And Spencer Strider.

And Acuna and Albies signed to huge discounts.

We have a potential dynasty on our hands, folks. Depends on how the ball bounces in October. But we are one of maybe 3-4 teams with a legit shot every year for the next decade.

[CyYoung31]

The Braves have the two youngest players in the Major Leagues.

And Spencer Strider.

And Acuna and Albies signed to huge discounts.

We have a potential dynasty on our hands, folks. Depends on how the ball bounces in October. But we are one of maybe 3-4 teams with a legit shot every year for the next decade.

You mean the Mets.

[DirkPiggler]

FG projects Grissom at .264/.324/.391 (almost exactly MLB average). That would be a good outcome for these next few weeks, and we should be very satisfied with such results.

I'm guessing he shows a little more power than that.

League average would be a pretty good outcome until Ozzie gets back.

Maybe we get lucky and he gets the benefit of the league being unfamiliar with him like when Dansby and Ozzie first came up, and he outperforms that projection a bit in the SSS.

[clvclv]

Grissom has been a better hitter than Harris in basically all facets. At least to my memory of stats and discussions of prospects. I have been very surprised by how well Harris has hit.

The issues with Grissom has been defense. IF he hits really well and plays solid D at 2B, does that mean he can play SS? Not for me. But they will get some idea of how he handles big league positioning, coaching, pressure, etc.

Dansby is on another planet as a SS per everyone. But that is now. Dansby is 28. How many years of great defense does he have? How many of good defense?

If albies is healthy, not sure what you do. Maybe Grissom could play LF or DH. Maybe you just send him down to protect service time.

I think the guy can hit. A lot of guys take a while to adjust to MLB breaking pitches. And he may not have the in game power to be an impact bat. But I think he's going to be 800 OPS guy with OBP over power.

I don't think they're overly worried about whether Grissom can stick at SS to be honest - I think just the threat that he can is enough for management's purposes.

I'm still not quite buying the Braves as a Top 5 payroll team - will believe that when we actually see it - but I definitely think the goal is to keep this core INCLUDING Dansby together through the end of Acuna's deal. You have to think the part Grissom plays in the grander scheme of things is that his presence keeps a Swanson extension to 5-6 years at $20 million or less AAV. As expensive as that sounds, it would still be a significant savings over what Story and Semien got.

If Dansby signs in that range, you will have landed Acuna, Albies, Riley, Olson, AND Swanson all for below-market rates. You plug Grissom in in LF and you've filled that hole for less than market value even if he sits against against the toughest RHPs and Rosario plays. CF will cost less than market value even if Harris ultimately needs a platoon partner. Contreras will remain relatively inexpensive as long as they have another Catcher to split time with him even if that split is 60/40 or even 70/30.

That leaves most of the money coming off the books to spend on SPs - even if they don't extend Fried. If Dansby signs for say 6/$120 million, payroll would land at just shy of $160 million even if the Morton and Odorizzi options are picked up. Fried probably bumps that to $170-$172 million with his arbitration award. Even with Soroka, Minter, and Matzek eligible for arbitration you'd still come in under $190 million after paying EVERYBODY. Roster Resource/FanGraphs has 2022 estimated current payroll at $185 million.

EDIT: I completely understand why the numbers crowd isn't in favor of the dangers that arise from having so many long-term commitments. It just looks like this is the direction Alex has chosen to go even with those dangers.

[Enscheff]

At this point AA is close to all in, so locking guys up to extend the window is the plan to follow. AA locked in his core long term, and has next to zero flexibility, so either that core leads the Braves to 5+ postseason trips, or they are in for a looooong rebuild. So why not extend Fried now?

The real tough decision will be when/if to blow things up vs ride out the aging core. They could go the Nats route and accelerate the next rebuild, or they can go the Phils route with the Rollins/Utley/Howard/Hamels/Halladay core and never successfully rebuild. How AA navigates that period in 4-5 years will determine if he's a good GM that will be fired at the end of a competitive cycle, or a great GM that remains with the Braves for 20 years.

[JCarbo76]

I don't think they're overly worried about whether Grissom can stick at SS to be honest - I think just the threat that he can is enough for management's purposes.

I'm still not quite buying the Braves as a Top 5 payroll team - will believe that when we actually see it - but I definitely think the goal is to keep this core INCLUDING Dansby together through the end of Acuna's deal. You have to think the part Grissom plays in the grander scheme of things is that his presence keeps a Swanson extension to 5-6 years at $20 million or less AAV. As expensive as that sounds, it would still be a significant savings over what Story and Semien got.

If Dansby signs in that range, you will have landed Acuna, Albies, Riley, Olson, AND Swanson all for below-market rates. You plug Grissom in in LF and you've filled that hole for less than market value even if he sits against against the toughest RHPs and Rosario plays. CF will cost less than market value even if Harris ultimately needs a platoon partner. Contreras will remain relatively inexpensive as long as they have another Catcher to split time with him even if that split is 60/40 or even 70/30.

That leaves most of the money coming off the books to spend on SPs - even if they don't extend Fried. If Dansby signs for say 6/$120 million, payroll would land at just shy of $160 million even if the Morton and Odorizzi options are picked up. Fried probably bumps that to $170-$172 million with his arbitration award. Even with Soroka, Minter, and Matzek eligible for arbitration you'd still come in under $190 million after paying EVERYBODY. Roster Resource/FanGraphs has 2022 estimated current payroll at $185 million.

EDIT: I completely understand why the numbers crowd isn't in favor of the dangers that arise from having so many long-term commitments. It just looks like this is the direction Alex has chosen to go even with those dangers.

Another point to consider is that the horrible local TV contract that has handcuffed revenues is up for renewal pretty soon. I think AA wants to have the team at its peak level (several straight playoff appearances, a couple or three pennants, etc.) when that the comes, so that the demand for the Braves programming will also be at its peak.

That increased revenue will be a boon for years.

[Enscheff]

Assuming AA picks up Morton's option, or replaces him with another guy for roughly the same pay, I have the 2023 roster at $174M. As usual, folks aren't accounting for the raises built into every single one of the contracts (Riley gets an $11M bump all by himself) when they do their "$X is leaving, so AA has $X to spend" pseudo-math.

The only real hole is at SS, which will cost $20M-$30M to fill. So if AA is going to fill SS adequately, we all better hope the opening day payroll is ~$200M. I had them at $175M this season, so jumping up $25M in the midst of amazing attendance isn't as crazy at it used to sound.

2023
Pos Player 2023 Salary
1 C d'Arnaud $8.00
2 1B Olson $21.00
3 2B Albies $7.00
4 3B Riley $15.00
5 SS FA
6 RF Acuna $17.00
7 CF Harris $0.71
8 LF Rosario $9.00
9 DH Ozuna $18.00

10 SP1 Fried $11.00
11 SP2 Morton $20.00
12 SP3 Anderson $0.72
13 SP4 Strider $0.71
14 SP5 Wright $0.72

15 BN1 Arcia $1.60
16 BN2 Heredia $1.00
17 BN3 Contreras $0.70
18 BN4 Pina $4.50

19 BP1 O'Day $1.00
20 BP2 Minter $4.00
21 BP3 Lee $0.71
22 BP4 Soroka $2.80
23 BP5 Yates $6.00
24 BP6 Iglesias $16.00
25 BP7 Matzek $2.00
26 BP8 McHugh $5.00

Total $174.17

[chop2chip]

Assuming AA picks up Morton's option, or replaces him with another guy for roughly the same pay, I have the 2023 roster at $174M. As usual, folks aren't accounting for the raises built into every single one of the contracts (Riley gets an $11M bump all by himself) when they do their "$X is leaving, so AA has $X to spend" pseudo-math.

The only real hole is at SS, which will cost $20M-$30M to fill. So if AA is going to fill SS adequately, we all better hope the opening day payroll is ~$200M. I had them at $175M this season, so jumping up $25M in the midst of amazing attendance isn't as crazy at it used to sound.

2023
Pos Player 2023 Salary
1 C d'Arnaud $8.00
2 1B Olson $21.00
3 2B Albies $7.00
4 3B Riley $15.00
5 SS FA
6 RF Acuna $17.00
7 CF Harris $0.71
8 LF Rosario $9.00
9 DH Ozuna $18.00

10 SP1 Fried $11.00
11 SP2 Morton $20.00
12 SP3 Anderson $0.72
13 SP4 Strider $0.71
14 SP5 Wright $0.72

15 BN1 Arcia $1.60
16 BN2 Heredia $1.00
17 BN3 Contreras $0.70
18 BN4 Pina $4.50

19 BP1 O'Day $1.00
20 BP2 Minter $4.00
21 BP3 Lee $0.71
22 BP4 Soroka $2.80
23 BP5 Yates $6.00
24 BP6 Iglesias $16.00
25 BP7 Matzek $2.00
26 BP8 McHugh $5.00

Total $174.17

Odorizzi himself might end up accounting for either $6m buyout or $13m salary next year. (I’m not entirely sure because his player option is a little confusing)

Either way - payroll will need to rise ~$210 to be able to shop in the premium aisle for SS.

2023 player option includes a $3.25M buyout
Option escalates $2M & buyout increases $1M each for:
20, 25, 30 starts, or any game with 12+ outs, max $12.5M/$6.25M

[Russ2dollas]

Plus that is no Jansen. So pen is worse.

If one of those 28-29 yo guys will sign for 100 million or less great. I expect most will want to get signed for 7 to ten years and that is scary.

It needs to be 200 plus million.

Even if you love Grissom we still need a 20 million bat in lf or dh.

[msstate7]

Perhaps they let Morton walk and bank on soroka

[CJC]

Odorizzi himself might end up accounting for either $6m buyout or $13m salary next year. (I’m not entirely sure because his player option is a little confusing)

Either way - payroll will need to rise ~$210 to be able to shop in the premium aisle for SS.

Odorizzi will opt out and the $6M will go toward the 2022 Payroll

[CJC]

From MLB Trade Rumors today:

Charlie Morton, SP ($20MM option, no buyout)

It has been strange year for Morton, who starred on last year’s World Series winner. He re-signed on a $20MM deal with a matching option for next season. Through 22 starts and 122 2/3 innings, the two-time All-Star has a slightly underwhelming 4.26 ERA. That’s largely attributable to a dreadful first couple months, however. He has an ERA of 3.55 or below in each of the past three months, carrying a cumulative 3.44 mark while holding opponents to a .198/.276/.369 line since June 1. Morton is still sitting in the mid-90’s with his fastball, striking batters out at a quality 27.3% clip and has ironed out his control after some uncharacteristic wildness through his first few starts. At first glance, a $20MM salary seems pricey for a pitcher entering his age-39 season with Morton’s overall numbers, but he’s not shown any signs of physical decline and has looked great lately. If he keeps at this pace for another two months, the Braves will probably welcome him back. That, of course, assumes Morton wants to continue playing. He’s hinted at retirement in years past and set fairly strict geographic limitations on his market during his latest trips to free agency.


-------------------


It's a team option. I think they talk in the offseason and don't exercise the option and agree to bring him back for $15M-$16M on a 1 year deal

[clvclv]

Assuming AA picks up Morton's option, or replaces him with another guy for roughly the same pay, I have the 2023 roster at $174M. As usual, folks aren't accounting for the raises built into every single one of the contracts (Riley gets an $11M bump all by himself) when they do their "$X is leaving, so AA has $X to spend" pseudo-math.

The only real hole is at SS, which will cost $20M-$30M to fill. So if AA is going to fill SS adequately, we all better hope the opening day payroll is ~$200M. I had them at $175M this season, so jumping up $25M in the midst of amazing attendance isn't as crazy at it used to sound.

2023
Pos Player 2023 Salary
1 C d'Arnaud $8.00
2 1B Olson $21.00
3 2B Albies $7.00
4 3B Riley $15.00
5 SS FA
6 RF Acuna $17.00
7 CF Harris $0.71
8 LF Rosario $9.00
9 DH Ozuna $18.00

10 SP1 Fried $11.00
11 SP2 Morton $20.00
12 SP3 Anderson $0.72
13 SP4 Strider $0.71
14 SP5 Wright $0.72

15 BN1 Arcia $1.60
16 BN2 Heredia $1.00
17 BN3 Contreras $0.70
18 BN4 Pina $4.50

19 BP1 O'Day $1.00
20 BP2 Minter $4.00
21 BP3 Lee $0.71
22 BP4 Soroka $2.80
23 BP5 Yates $6.00
24 BP6 Iglesias $16.00
25 BP7 Matzek $2.00
26 BP8 McHugh $5.00

Total $174.17

You’re projecting Fried at $11 million. Not sure why you think your numbers are different than mine. I said “roughly” $172-$174 million depending on what he gets.

I just didn’t bother to speculate on what Minter, Matzek, and Soroka will get in arbitration or whether they’ll bother going through the process with the team mascot (Heredia). I counted Pina in those numbers, so our numbers are essentially the same. Pretty sure they’ll find a taker for Pina even if they have to kick in a million or two.

[chop2chip]

Odorizzi will opt out and the $6M will go toward the 2022 Payroll

Is that how that goes? Idk. Braves are in a position now where I believe that $6m would count towards luxury tax.

Also I wouldn’t be surprised if he opted in