A little perspective on MHII

[JCarbo76]

Through 90 games (344 PAs), Harris has amassed 4.4 WAR.

How does that stack up historically?

Well, among CFs 21 and younger it ranks as the 17th best of all time. That's really good.

BUT, what if he had that level of performance over 600 PAs? That would compute to 7.67 WAR, which would place him 4th all time among CFs age 21 or younger. He would trail only Trout, Trout, and Cedeno. It's better than the age 21 or younger seasons of Mays, Mantle, Andruw, Junior, Cobb, Acuna (who, lest we forget, was a CF at age 21), Speaker, et al.

And, yeah, I get it that his WAR is inflated with a BABiP of .381, but still, it's impressive.

Interestingly, one of the other CFs with an impressive age 21 season is a guy we'll see this weekend, Julio Rodriguez, who would project at 5.83 WAR if he reaches 600 PAs this season.

EDIT: And we just signed Harris to a 10/102m contract. The Mariners just signed Rodriguez to 12/209m.

[GovClintonTyree]

Yeah, on the ROY question, I think Harris and Strider have been almost equally excellent at their particular jobs, but there's no way you can equate the consistent everyday excellence on both sides of the ball from Harris with the every fifth day excellence of Strider. I'd go with Harris, though I wouldn't be crushed to see it other way round. What would really be cool is if they tied.

[NYCBrave]

I think most impressive about Harris is that every time it appears he's going to hit a wall and regress into an extended slump, he quickly figures it out and comes back just as good. Still would like to see the walk rate come up a bit. But each month he's walking more than the prior, so that's something.

[GovClintonTyree]

I think most impressive about Harris is that every time it appears he's going to hit a wall and regress into an extended slump, he quickly figures it out and comes back just as good. Still would like to see the walk rate come up a bit. But each month he's walking more than the prior, so that's something.

Yeah, good points, and Harris had a pretty good walk rate in the minors, so it might just be learning at this level. Grissom was really good in the minors, seems to be picking up at the ML level.

[atl717]

Some have mentioned the low exit velocity for Grissom and it’s definitely something I look at but in Grissom’s case his hit tool is plus. He sprays the ball all over and is a high contact hitter. He’s got enough juice to hit 15-20 homers annually with a high average and good obp. He’s going to get a lot of those Derek Jeter fisted into right field type of hits we have already seen from him.

He profiles best at 2B but is probably going to have to play LF which is fine because we need someone with his type of offensive profile to balance out the swing and miss in the lineup. The unfortunate thing is LF is the one position we could add another impact bat and by moving Grissom there we can’t really do that. But that allows us to pursue a top starter on a short term deal.

[thethe]

If Albies refuses to switch to a right handed bat permanently then I'm not sure he is more valuable than Grissom.

[atl717]

Ozzie is one of the leaders on the team and he’s a perfect buffer between Acuna and the rest of the team. He’s cheap, a really good defender and mashes lefties. I’d like him to bat righty and maybe he will at some point. Regardless, he’s not going anywhere.

[Deester11]

If Albies refuses to switch to a right handed bat permanently then I'm not sure he is more valuable than Grissom.

Eh...maybe. But I'm always gonna err on the Albies side with that argument.

[atl717]

It’s an experiment they should try in winter ball. See what his numbers look like as a full time righty. This would be the perfect winter to do it with the games missed.

[thethe]

The craziest thing about Albies is that he has a total of 9 PA's versus a righty as a right handed hitter. He hit 2 home runs and 3/0 BB/K. Yes - Only 9 PA's but it makes absolute zero sense why we haven't converted him to a full time right handed hitter.

[Russ2dollas]

https://meadowparty.com/blog/2021/04...wchat-4-22-21/

Harris: How do you feel about the Harris extension? I think it broke while you were on vacation.
Keith Law: Likely to pay off for the team, great for the player, more risk for the team than I think the general reaction would indicate.

[chop2chip]

The craziest thing about Albies is that he has a total of 9 PA's versus a righty as a right handed hitter. He hit 2 home runs and 3/0 BB/K. Yes - Only 9 PA's but it makes absolute zero sense why we haven't converted him to a full time right handed hitter.

Ozzie hits RH against position players (and occasionally against a reallllllly soft tossing RH like Ryan Harper). I distinctly remember one of those homeruns being against a Nationals position player.

I would completely throw out the value of those PAs

[thethe]

Ozzie hits RH against position players (and occasionally against a reallllllly soft tossing RH like Ryan Harper). I distinctly remember one of those homeruns being against a Nationals position player.

I would completely throw out the value of those PAs

Nice context - Thanks

[clvclv]

https://meadowparty.com/blog/2021/04...wchat-4-22-21/

Harris: How do you feel about the Harris extension? I think it broke while you were on vacation.
Keith Law: Likely to pay off for the team, great for the player, more risk for the team than I think the general reaction would indicate.

This answer from the talking heads (not just Law) - particularly when they aren't watching the players signing these extensions every day - is getting pretty old TBH.

Even the old school folks (GMs, Managers, Coaches, and fans alike) understand the risks involved in long-term deals. Maybe they don't break it down to the raw numbers, but they do realize there's a lot of risk in them just as the numerically-inclined group does. I can't imagine ANYONE accusing Alex of being anything other than analytically-driven in his decision-making process in every situation. He's likely more aware of the exact downside to these deals than anyone talking about them, and I can't imagine anyone has pored over the data and potential outcomes more than he has while handing out the Olson, Riley, and Harris deals. He sees these guys up close everyday and is privy to tons more information about them than Law - or any of the other "gurus" - will ever have.

It's getting to the point where most of these guys are just making sure to drop stuff like that in so they'll be able to come back and say "I told you that was a bad idea" 5 years down the road if these guys aren't still 5 WAR players at that point. The analytics are amazing when utilized in the right context, and I really appreciate the increased understanding I've gained from them (much because the folks here that are deep into them really know their stuff). That said, they will always fall a bit short when you have to translate them to real world operations. The static "value" of a win and many of the other numbers only work when used in a vacuum - if EVERY team was working with the same revenue/payroll situations this stuff could be treated as absolute gospel. Unfortunately you have to treat them a bit more like a high school chemistry experiment - the result will almost always turn out as expected as long as variables aren't introduced.

As many of the numbers guys here have said in the past, higher-revenue teams have the luxury of "missing" a little as long as those misses aren't complete disasters. So long as Harris doesn't suffer some kind of devastating injury, it's pretty tough to see him not living up to being a 1-win player every year if the options aren't exercised (8 years/$72 million). Law just wants to be able to say the extension was a "questionable one" the first time Harris doesn't put up 3 WAR. My guess is he'll also harken back to the fact that he said Riley had a slider-speed bat the first time he hits less than 30 bombs as well.

[Enscheff]

https://meadowparty.com/blog/2021/04...wchat-4-22-21/

Harris: How do you feel about the Harris extension? I think it broke while you were on vacation.
Keith Law: Likely to pay off for the team, great for the player, more risk for the team than I think the general reaction would indicate.

Law is not wrong here...there are real risks with Harris. But those risks are why he signed for 10/102 rather than a much larger value.

The risks are real, not imagined...

- xwOBA delta of 0.034 is the 2nd highest on the team among players who've seen 1000+ pitches. The xwOBA stat isn't gospel (as evidenced by Ozuna always seeming to be "unlucky"), but it suggests he is an above average hitter rather than an elite hitter.
- As others have mentioned, that .381 BABIP is an illusion, and will come down. When he's hitting .260/.320/.450, I think the hype will die down a bit.
- That 4.7% BB rate is not good. That 43% swing rate at pitches outside the zone ranks 13th worst of 237 MLB players with 300+ PAs.

Those are the risks, but there are a lot of legit skills that's can't be denied....

- His 25.4% HR/FB rate is supported by his 96.4 mph exit velocity on FBs/LDs (behind only Riley and Contreras, ahead of Olson and Acuna).
- He has improved his season OPS vs LHP up to .719 after starting out pretty awful against them, and that's more than playable in CF.
- His flyball success rate added of 3% is #14 of 134 qualified OFers. While that isn't elite, and defensive numbers are noisy, it is clear he's a very good OFer.
- Sprint speed of 29.2 is 70 Grade, and his 16/17 on SB attempts shows he's not a bonehead like Acuna.
- He is in his age 21 season...I repeat, age 21. Riley got 324 AAA PAs in his age 21 season, Harris got 0. Harris is developing at the MLB level, and having success while doing it.

Giving Harris 10/$100M was a very good risk to take.

[Russ2dollas]

Law is not wrong here...there are real risks with Harris. But those risks are why he signed for 10/102 rather than a much larger value.

The risks are real, not imagined...

- xwOBA delta of 0.034 is the 2nd highest on the team among players who've seen 1000+ pitches. The xwOBA stat isn't gospel (as evidenced by Ozuna always seeming to be "unlucky"), but it suggests he is an above average hitter rather than an elite hitter.
- As others have mentioned, that .318 BABIP is an illusion, and will come down. When he's hitting .260/.320/.450, I think the hype will die down a bit.
- That 4.7% BB rate is not good. That 43% swing rate at pitches outside the zone ranks 13th worst of 237 MLB players with 300+ PAs.

Those are the risks, but there are a lot of legit skills that's can't be denied....

- His 25.4% HR/FB rate is supported by his 96.4 mph exit velocity on FBs/LDs (behind only Riley and Contreras, ahead of Olson and Acuna).
- He has improved his season OPS vs LHP up to .719 after starting out pretty awful against them, and that's more than playable in CF.
- His flyball success rate added of 3% is #14 of 134 qualified OFers. While that isn't elite, and defensive numbers are noisy, it is clear he's a very good OFer.
- Sprint speed of 29.2 is 70 Grade, and his 16/17 on SB attempts shows he's not a bonehead like Acuna.
- He is in his age 21 season...I repeat, age 21. Riley got 324 AAA PAs in his age 21 season, Harris got 0. Harris is developing at the MLB level, and having success while doing it.

Giving Harris 10/$100M was a very good risk to take.

Great detail.

I agree with Law. I didn't think Law was taking a shot. I posted more as context to the AA is a GOD commentary or the AA needs to be investigated for under paying black players.

These deals are supposed to be what Law said. Likely to be team friendly but not so friendly that the player isn't a winner. This is the player taking upside off the table to be set for life financially. That is a reasonable trade, it's just about how much upside are you willing to give up for how much security?

I'd be happy with Rich Man's Ender. I'm not expecting Trout or Griffey. I'm expecting that I'd want him hitting 9th in my ideal world.

I also think that he saw basically zero MLB quality non-fastballs before his promotion. So I think he has a ton of upside to improve his walk rate, swing in the zone percentage, contact rates ETC.

[NYCBrave]

Some have mentioned the low exit velocity for Grissom and it’s definitely something I look at but in Grissom’s case his hit tool is plus. He sprays the ball all over and is a high contact hitter. He’s got enough juice to hit 15-20 homers annually with a high average and good obp. He’s going to get a lot of those Derek Jeter fisted into right field type of hits we have already seen from him.

He profiles best at 2B but is probably going to have to play LF which is fine because we need someone with his type of offensive profile to balance out the swing and miss in the lineup. The unfortunate thing is LF is the one position we could add another impact bat and by moving Grissom there we can’t really do that. But that allows us to pursue a top starter on a short term deal.

Since you brought up Jeter, any idea what his EV was throughout his career? Just curious, not saying Grissom is a comparison

[atl717]

They didn’t have that kind of data then.

[JCarbo76]

Since you brought up Jeter, any idea what his EV was throughout his career? Just curious, not saying Grissom is a comparison

Jeter did have a career .350 BABIP in over 12000 PAs.

[Carp]

If Albies refuses to switch to a right handed bat permanently then I'm not sure he is more valuable than Grissom.

This is silly. Albies is a 4-5 WAR player.