Official official offseason thread

[The Chosen One]

I’m curious what the consensus “$ per WAR” will be after this year’s free agency.

Yep. Curious if it's an outlier year, or this will be the base for the new standard.

[ChapHillMatt]

So glad AA didn’t do that. Good luck with the cubs!

We will be fine. We won without Freddie we can win without dansby

[bravesfanMatt]

Yes, we can all read the “they were in on the bidding” articles if it makes folks feel better, but the end result is what it is.

When every single player signs for a contract that’s “too expensive” that means the value of FAs has increased. Every single contract can’t be “too expensive”…by definition.

This my point. If prices for players go up we can either pay them or sit and watch other teams pay them and pass us. Before I get accused of suggesting our team is crap. Nope. But you have to add to it as other pieces leave. And not by marginally improving the team by shifting players that were producing.

[Enscheff]

I’m curious what the consensus “$ per WAR” will be after this year’s free agency.

The Rodon deal was a little over 9.

The length of these recent deals appears to be a business-minded reaction to rising interest rates making it beneficial to push payroll to the future as it’s essentially the player giving the team a loan at much lower interest rate than the prevailing rates. I don’t fully understand it, but Clemens at FG did a good write up that I can almost understand.

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/why-are-...ong-contracts/

I’m not sure how much of the huge contracts is that, and how much is teams ducking under the cap, but these deals are a definite step up from anything we’ve ever seen before.

[The Chosen One]

This my point. If prices for players go up we can either pay them or sit and watch other teams pay them and pass us. Before I get accused of suggesting our team is crap. Nope. But you have to add to it as other pieces leave. And not by marginally improving the team by shifting players that were producing.

I do wonder if having a corporate owner changes things a bit from having a solo owner (like a Crane or Cohen or Steinbrenner).

McGuirk and upper execs have said they want to increase payroll. Liberty apparently can't interfere with the business. But maybe McGuirk is given a number and that's that.

I wonder if having a single owner like Ted, would we have jumped on someone like Correa despite the long term costs. Would we have also penny pinched with these extensions for the yute as we've seen the last few years (which I'm in favor of).

[chop2chip]

This my point. If prices for players go up we can either pay them or sit and watch other teams pay them and pass us. Before I get accused of suggesting our team is crap. Nope. But you have to add to it as other pieces leave. And not by marginally improving the team by shifting players that were producing.

At the end of the day, the Braves have a top 5 payroll. It’s to their credit the majority of their money spent is on young players signed to extremely team friendly contracts (btw - how much better do the Strider and Harris contracts look three months later)

[Enscheff]

This my point. If prices for players go up we can either pay them or sit and watch other teams pay them and pass us. Before I get accused of suggesting our team is crap. Nope. But you have to add to it as other pieces leave. And not by marginally improving the team by shifting players that were producing.

You are witnessing firsthand how windows of contention close. Eventually the core gets too expensive, and the farm can’t fill the gaps. Guys like Strider and Harris have filled some gaps, but the end of the window is starting to come into focus. It’s still a ways out, but it’s clearly coming.

[msstate7]

Yep. Curious if it's an outlier year, or this will be the base for the new standard.

You are witnessing firsthand how windows of contention close. Eventually the core gets too expensive, and the farm can’t fill the gaps. Guys like Strider and Harris have filled some gaps, but the end of the window is starting to come into focus. It’s still a ways out, but it’s clearly coming.

Seems like you're assuming the Mets and Phillies deals all work out. If they don't, they braves window is extended

[bravesfanMatt]

You are witnessing firsthand how windows of contention close. Eventually the core gets too expensive, and the farm can’t fill the gaps. Guys like Strider and Harris have filled some gaps, but the end of the window is starting to come into focus. It’s still a ways out, but it’s clearly coming.

This is one of my biggest problems of the Murphy for WC trade. It is a win now move but then we don’t push all in to actually help that win now. Now we are looking at no catcher in 3 years or extending a catcher on the wrong side of 30. Even if you didn’t like WC. We at least had him for our entire window. So we made a bold win now move then pussed out when other win now moves could have been made. I mean Turner on an 11 year deal would fit our window perfect really. In about5 or 6 we are probably rebuilding and could trade the remaining years away.

[mfree80]

The “we are out of money “ refrain sounds very familiar from last year at this time… just before signing Jansen. I suspect AA is willing to spend if it brings good value, but will not get into bidding wars that push the value beyond reason.

Thankfully, he spends money on good young players and stays away from big, longer term contracts (mostly).

Tough to watch now, but a better long term approach. I will watch as these contracts come back to bite teams before very long.

[Hudson2]

Yes, we can all read the “they were in on the bidding” articles if it makes folks feel better, but the end result is what it is.

When every single player signs for a contract that’s “too expensive” that means the value of FAs has increased. Every single contract can’t be “too expensive”…by definition.

AA isn’t stupid. He isn’t gonna sign a 28 year old to n 11-13 year deal. Look at the Dodgers, they just lost Turner and didn’t replace him. It wasn’t bc of money. It was bc they have a smart team and wasn’t gonna get drug into a bidding war.

[msstate7]

AA isn’t stupid. He isn’t gonna sign a 28 year old to n 11-13 year deal. Look at the Dodgers, they just lost Turner and didn’t replace him. It wasn’t bc of money. It was bc they have a smart team and wasn’t gonna get drug into a bidding war.

^^^

[The Chosen One]

The “we are out of money “ refrain sounds very familiar from last year at this time… just before signing Jansen. I suspect AA is willing to spend if it brings good value, but will not get into bidding wars that push the value beyond reason.

Thankfully, he spends money on good young players and stays away from big, longer term contracts (mostly).

Tough to watch now, but a better long term approach. I will watch as these contracts come back to bite teams before very long.

I remember when Olson signed his extent.

Then Rosario signed an extent. DOB tweeted we had no more money left and was very adamant about that.


Then McHugh signed. Then Kenley signed. I couldn't troll him enough on twitter (he obviously didn't respond). Was just funny how condescending he was to so many.

[Hudson2]

I’d still like to see us pick up Profar. He can play infield or outfield and has a cannon. He had a good year last year and is still just 29 years old.

[thewupk]

This is one of my biggest problems of the Murphy for WC trade. It is a win now move but then we don’t push all in to actually help that win now. Now we are looking at no catcher in 3 years or extending a catcher on the wrong side of 30. Even if you didn’t like WC. We at least had him for our entire window. So we made a bold win now move then pussed out when other win now moves could have been made. I mean Turner on an 11 year deal would fit our window perfect really. In about5 or 6 we are probably rebuilding and could trade the remaining years away.

Our big-time window is through 2024 since that is Fried's last guaranteed season. I think Murphy hear through that helps us more than WC.

[Enscheff]

The “we are out of money “ refrain sounds very familiar from last year at this time… just before signing Jansen. I suspect AA is willing to spend if it brings good value, but will not get into bidding wars that push the value beyond reason.

Thankfully, he spends money on good young players and stays away from big, longer term contracts (mostly).

Tough to watch now, but a better long term approach. I will watch as these contracts come back to bite teams before very long.

This is very true. The Jensen deal did catch most everyone by surprise.

[bravesfanMatt]

AA isn’t stupid. He isn’t gonna sign a 28 year old to n 11-13 year deal. Look at the Dodgers, they just lost Turner and didn’t replace him. It wasn’t bc of money. It was bc they have a smart team and wasn’t gonna get drug into a bidding war.

Boy I remember when everyone said Copy wasn’t stupid. Then he started doing stupid stuff. I like AA. But I am not going to just assume he is god because he did something good in the past.

I haven’t been a fan of a lot of his moves since the WS win.

[bravesnumberone]

I’d still like to see us pick up Profar. He can play infield or outfield and has a cannon. He had a good year last year and is still just 29 years old.

These are the kind of guys we need to focus on now. Capable of playing multiple positions, especially with the existing black hole in LF/partial DH black hole and the uncertainty at short. I still think we need another lefty reliever, but no clue if anyone is available that could help.

[The Chosen One]

Boy I remember when everyone said Copy wasn’t stupid. Then he started doing stupid stuff. I like AA. But I am not going to just assume he is god because he did something good in the past.

I haven’t been a fan of a lot of his moves since the WS win.

AA to a fault does believe in loyalty.

He's stuck with Snit this long. He brought back Rosario. He's re-upped Charlie and Travis several times now.

Not blowing the bank on Freddie or Dansby is something I don't fault him for. Because in the Freddie situation, he got the replacement everyone wanted, and then extended him.

By now we've seen AA, outside of Kenley and Will Smith, has basically made trades for high leverage relievers. Even the summer before we signed Will Smith, he was one of the rumored guys were in on at the deadline. I actually remember us being in on both Melancon and Smith together from the Giants.

He seems to have guys he targets. If he can't get them one year, he eventually gets them in another year.

[msstate7]

Rosario is a career .794 ops vs rhp. I expect him to be closer to that than his abysmal season last year. Add a rh platoon, and lf is ok imo