Official official offseason thread

[CJ9]

Bowman wrote an article today that sounds like he's still skeptical they go into the season with Grissom/Arcia at shortstop. I know, I know - our beat writers never hear things and are bad. But at least thought it was interesting. https://www.mlb.com/braves/news/vaug...2023-questions

[bravesfanMatt]

Bowman wrote an article today that sounds like he's still skeptical they go into the season with Grissom/Arcia at shortstop. I know, I know - our beat writers never hear things and are bad. But at least thought it was interesting. https://www.mlb.com/braves/news/vaug...2023-questions

who is left that is a meaningful upgrade at this point. The Money to get Andrus probably isn't worth the minor upgrade he would provide. I just don't buy this.

[Russ2dollas]

Bowman wrote an article today that sounds like he's still skeptical they go into the season with Grissom/Arcia at shortstop. I know, I know - our beat writers never hear things and are bad. But at least thought it was interesting. https://www.mlb.com/braves/news/vaug...2023-questions

I think Alex has a deal for Andrus that is 3 million with incentives to 5. Andrus' team probably has a deal on the table for 7 million.

And they both keep waiting for the phone to ring.

I don't think Andrus is that good. I don't think he's a big upgrade over Arcia and Grissom. So I wouldn't go hard after him. But if I could steal him on a low deal, I'd take it as piece of mind. I wouldn't cry if Grissom started the season in AAA and had to earn the spot. So if I'm AA, Andrus is worth 2-3 million to me. If he gets more elsewhere God bless him.

[MadduxFanII]

The argument for Andrus is less about any actual virtue he brings to the team in terms of his skill set and instead is more about just adding another competent option and layer of redundancy. At a very basic level, right now we only need two shortstops to fail to end up in a tough spot at the position. Sign Andrus and you need three shortstops to fail.

It's not exactly inspirational, but it's where we are at the moment.

[Slippyjms]

Andrus was a 3.5 fWAR SS last year. He can be a valuable addition if we can get him cheap. His big downside is he can only play SS

[bravesfanforlife88]

Royals signed aroldis chapman for 1 year $3m, has $4m in incentives. Feel like we should have grabbed him

[zbhargrove]

Andrus was a 3.5 fWAR SS last year. He can be a valuable addition if we can get him cheap. His big downside is he can only play SS

Last year was also a huge outlier at an old age.

[Slippyjms]

Last year was also a huge outlier at an old age.

Maybe but fangraphs did a deep dive on him and it looks like a change was made to his game. Changing aspects of his game also corresponds with other WAR spikes in his career. Like I said If we can get him cheap he may be a good value. Keeps Arcia in a utility role gives Grissom additional time to develop and most likely keeps Shewmake and Adrianza off the roster. Seems like a perfect fit.

[Heyward]

Royals signed aroldis chapman for 1 year $3m, has $4m in incentives. Feel like we should have grabbed him

He turned down more money elsewhere, he wanted to close.

[Slippyjms]

The argument for Andrus is less about any actual virtue he brings to the team in terms of his skill set and instead is more about just adding another competent option and layer of redundancy. At a very basic level, right now we only need two shortstops to fail to end up in a tough spot at the position. Sign Andrus and you need three shortstops to fail.

It's not exactly inspirational, but it's where we are at the moment.

I mean I think too Grissom has to start whether thats in the majors or the minors. So without another SS option we're talking about a Grissom & Arcia roster or a Arcia & Shewmake/Adrianza roster.

[CJ9]

I just have so little faith in Grissom defensively. We’ve been spoiled by Swanson defensively, and now to shift to a rookie who struggled to handle second last year? I’m not the least bit confident in that going well.

[Hulavol]

I just have so little faith in Grissom defensively. We’ve been spoiled by Swanson defensively, and now to shift to a rookie who struggled to handle second last year? I’m not the least bit confident in that going well.

I know I’m crazy to think this…. But I think the kid will do fine at short - he’s extremely athletic and he certainly has the arm. Andrelton Simba ? Hell no, but not a liability either. And I do think he will hit and for plenty- Better than Dansby with the bat ? Maybe not last year Dansby, but better than Dansby on a normal year - and I certainly think he will outperform Dansby this year - even as Dansby gets to hit lots of his warning track fly balls that turn into dingers in Wrigly.

In short - Grissom is gonna be a very pleasant surprise and ROY.
:)

[bravesfanMatt]

I know I’m crazy to think this…. But I think the kid will do fine at short - he’s extremely athletic and he certainly has the arm. Andrelton Simba ? Hell no, but not a liability either. And I do think he will hit and for plenty- Better than Dansby with the bat ? Maybe not last year Dansby, but better than Dansby on a normal year - and I certainly think he will outperform Dansby this year - even as Dansby gets to hit lots of his warning track fly balls that turn into dingers in Wrigly.

In short - Grissom is gonna be a very pleasant surprise and ROY.
:)

Well statcast data suggests he has a weak arm and also he is no longer a rookie so impossible for him to win.

[Russ2dollas]

Well statcast data suggests he has a weak arm and also he is no longer a rookie so impossible for him to win.

I have heard that data on arm strength has issues. I don't know. Not something I'm knowledgeable on. I recall there were issues with types of throws, sample size, etc. I recall Riley was known for having a boss arm via scouts and he is weak per baseball savants

I have read scouting reports on Grissom and I don't recall arm strength being an issue. Nobody was blown away by it.

It has been consistent that most scouts, if not all questioned if Grissom could play SS. It wasn't arm and athletic ability. I think he just wasn't fluid or a natural at it. So being concerned is very reasonable.

I also recall that Dansby had some defensive issues early and Wash made him better. Now, that was more taking a guy who everyone thought would be fine at SS to plus. This would be taking a guy that is not good to solid. And it likely takes more than an offseason.

I think the question is, if Grissom can make the routine plays, range a little to both sides and turn a double play are you ok? Then the second question is, how well does he need to hit for you to be ok with 0-1 defensive WAR at SS?

[Russ2dollas]

It will also be funny if you look at scouting reports for braves opponents.

If you hit it to 3B, LF or SS you have likely success. Whole left side! If you hit it to 1B, 2B, RF or CF it is almost certain death. Whole right side!

Do our pitchers pitch to that alignment too?

[Super]

He turned down more money elsewhere, he wanted to close.

please don’t bring nuance into a place where i want to complain about the braves not doing something

[Enscheff]

I have heard that data on arm strength has issues. I don't know. Not something I'm knowledgeable on. I recall there were issues with types of throws, sample size, etc. I recall Riley was known for having a boss arm via scouts and he is weak per baseball savants

I have read scouting reports on Grissom and I don't recall arm strength being an issue. Nobody was blown away by it.

It has been consistent that most scouts, if not all questioned if Grissom could play SS. It wasn't arm and athletic ability. I think he just wasn't fluid or a natural at it. So being concerned is very reasonable.

I also recall that Dansby had some defensive issues early and Wash made him better. Now, that was more taking a guy who everyone thought would be fine at SS to plus. This would be taking a guy that is not good to solid. And it likely takes more than an offseason.

I think the question is, if Grissom can make the routine plays, range a little to both sides and turn a double play are you ok? Then the second question is, how well does he need to hit for you to be ok with 0-1 defensive WAR at SS?

This is that data: https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/leade...&pos=&team=144

The max throw velocity is a reliable way to measure max arm strength...surely every single player has made at least 1 max effort throw, regardless of position. Notice the average value correlates very well with the max velocity value. This tells me any potential sampling issues are close to non existent.

Arcia max (playing 2B frequently): 90.3
Swanson max (playing SS full time): 87.0
Grissom max (playing 2B full time): 80.0
Albies max (playing 2B full time): 78.3

Additionally, Swanson's arm ranked #48 out of 50 qualified SSs last year, yet he was still an excellent defender. Grissom's arm is significantly weaker than Swanson's.

Grissom's arm is going to be a liability at SS, but it may not be the huge deal we are making it out to be. Remember when everyone thought Camargo was a great SS due to his arm? Yeah....they were wrong. We tend to overrate the value of arm strength for all players.

Grissom might be just fine at SS.

[Deester11]

This is that data: https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/leade...&pos=&team=144

The max throw velocity is a reliable way to measure max arm strength...surely every single player has made at least 1 max effort throw, regardless of position. Notice the average value correlates very well with the max velocity value. This tells me any potential sampling issues are close to non existent.

Arcia max (playing 2B frequently): 90.3
Swanson max (playing SS full time): 87.0
Grissom max (playing 2B full time): 80.0
Albies max (playing 2B full time): 78.3

Additionally, Swanson's arm ranked #48 out of 50 qualified SSs last year, yet he was still an excellent defender. Grissom's arm is significantly weaker than Swanson's.

Grissom's arm is going to be a liability at SS, but it may not be the huge deal we are making it out to be. Remember when everyone thought Camargo was a great SS due to his arm? Yeah....they were wrong. We tend to overrate the value of arm strength for all players.

Grissom might be just fine at SS.

Thanks En. This data seems to be spot on. Rome was where the Braves first floated the super utility idea about Grissom. I honestly loved his bat so much that I didn't worry about his fielding/arm because he was serviceable at SS. I think with Wash handling him he will be ok if not just solid. His errors in the minors seemed to be of the rushing the throw or bad angles type.

[bravesfanMatt]

As someone above said.. how much does his bat need to be a plus to mitigate a weaker arm. I think he will have range.. but anything he gets to might not produce an out due to a weaker throw.. so how good does he need to be offensively to make up for the negative defensive possibility. I am not 100% he has that in him.. but I like going with younger guys who are a bit unknown versus an Arcia who might appear better as is.. We know what Arcia will do, Grissom is still speculation.

Also, I wonder how easy it is to build thowing speed. It has to be a combo of arm strength, foot work and flexibility. All those things can be improved at his age.. also something that might not have been stressed as a 2nd base where 80mph throws are just fine. I seriously doubt a 1B wants a 95 coming at him from 30 feet away.

[zbhargrove]

I know I’m crazy to think this…. But I think the kid will do fine at short - he’s extremely athletic and he certainly has the arm. Andrelton Simba ? Hell no, but not a liability either. And I do think he will hit and for plenty- Better than Dansby with the bat ? Maybe not last year Dansby, but better than Dansby on a normal year - and I certainly think he will outperform Dansby this year - even as Dansby gets to hit lots of his warning track fly balls that turn into dingers in Wrigly.

In short - Grissom is gonna be a very pleasant surprise and ROY.
:)

Can’t win ROY the year if you aren’t a rookie anymore.