Originally Posted by
striker42
I hate to be the one to rain on the Bryce Elder parade but don't expect this to last. The biggest red flag to me is the average exit velocity against him, 92.2 MPH. For comparison, if he was a hitter and had a 92.2 average exit velocity, he'd be tied for 27th in the game. It's the exact average exit velocity of Jorge Soler. It's only 0.2 MPH less than Ohtani and it's 0.5 MPH higher than Trout. Currently, the highest average EV for a pitcher who has thrown enough innings to qualify is 91.0, Logan Gilbert for Seattle.
I could deal with high EVs if he was striking out a ton. While 8.00 per 9 isn't bad, it's probably not enough to have a ton of success if he's giving up rockets when batters do make contact.
While the EV is a red flag it doesn't mean he's a useless pitcher. He's a ground ball pitcher which is good. It will help to limit the number of HRs he gives up. He's not walking many, just 2.25 per 9 so that helps limit the damage hits do. And his expected numbers, while significantly worse than what he's doing, aren't unbearable. His xERA is 4.38 and his xFIP is 3.52. I'd take that every day for a back half of the rotation starter.
While the sample size isn't huge, we do have 99 Statcast events to draw from. I've read it takes about 40 balls in play for EV to become reliable so 99 events should be enough to start making some early conclusions.