GDT 5/15/23: Braves @ Rangers

[Carp]

Do we even have the pieces to acquire him? We could easily be outbid by any other team with a stronger farm system.

He's rental having a good/not great season. I would somewhat compare it to the Snydergaard or Jose Qunitana trades last season. Should not cost anything extravagant.

[Carp]

CBA> CBA> A back up catcher for $8M is a bit much dont you think.. Oh wait......Hell It aint your money. J/K

We can shed money other places. I would not expect us to pick up the option on Morton (though, honestly I wouldn't be completely surprised if we did).

Rosario will be gone. So will Jiminez, Pillar, and Chavez. Potentially 35+ million freed up from the luxury tax calculations before factoring in increases in Arbitration.

[Carp]

Our real problem is we don't have a great option at short. Arcia is going to fall back to earth hard. There's no way he's a .900 OPS hitter and it's highly unlikely he's an .800 OPS hitter. His career high OPS coming into this year was .734 and his career OPS sits at .674.

One thing I'm actually shocked about is that Arcia has played league average defense so far. His defense has been trending downward for years. I suspect he'll end the season as a below average defender.

So unless Arcia started taking something, we should probably expect him to hit one of his prolonged slumps at some point and end the year with a .750ish OPS (if we're lucky). Getting that out of a SS with mediocre defense isn't exactly anything to write home about.

Yes Grissom has disappointed and while Shewmake can pick it at SS he's a disaster at the plate. But those facts don't make Arcia someone we should be content with as our SS. We need to ride his hot streak while it lasts yet with always an eye on potential improvement.

That would be roughly a 2 WAR SS, which most of us said was possible a couple months ago, and you deemed impossible. A 2 WAR SS is absolutely a positive on a team that is stacked at almost every other position.

[Super]

That would be roughly a 2 WAR SS, which most of us said was possible a couple months ago, and you deemed impossible. A 2 WAR SS is absolutely a positive on a team that is stacked at almost every other position.

Especially for his cost.

[thethe]

Especially for his cost.

This was always hte correct argument.

Arcia will produce a bunch of surplus value and thats all you can ask for when you have a loaded everyday lineup.

[zbhargrove]

Our real problem is we don't have a great option at short. Arcia is going to fall back to earth hard. There's no way he's a .900 OPS hitter and it's highly unlikely he's an .800 OPS hitter. His career high OPS coming into this year was .734 and his career OPS sits at .674.

One thing I'm actually shocked about is that Arcia has played league average defense so far. His defense has been trending downward for years. I suspect he'll end the season as a below average defender.

So unless Arcia started taking something, we should probably expect him to hit one of his prolonged slumps at some point and end the year with a .750ish OPS (if we're lucky). Getting that out of a SS with mediocre defense isn't exactly anything to write home about.

Yes Grissom has disappointed and while Shewmake can pick it at SS he's a disaster at the plate. But those facts don't make Arcia someone we should be content with as our SS. We need to ride his hot streak while it lasts yet with always an eye on potential improvement.

I think you’re overstating Arcia’s defensive decline quite a bit. The last couple years he’s mainly been playing at positions other than his native position at SS… mainly 2B and LF… now that he’s back at SS, he’s been as solid as he always had been there. I highly doubt he will be a below average defensive SS by the end of the year. Sure he’s not gonna keep up at .900 OPS with a .392 BABIP… but he did have a well documented swing change and the Braves always saw something they loved. I think some of what he’s doing is a little more real than you’re giving credit.

[striker42]

I think you’re overstating Arcia’s defensive decline quite a bit. The last couple years he’s mainly been playing at positions other than his native position at SS… mainly 2B and LF… now that he’s back at SS, he’s been as solid as he always had been there. I highly doubt he will be a below average defensive SS by the end of the year. Sure he’s not gonna keep up at .900 OPS with a .392 BABIP… but he did have a well documented swing change and the Braves always saw something they loved. I think some of what he’s doing is a little more real than you’re giving credit.

His main position last year was 2B. He played in the OF for a little bit but only a fraction of the time he spent at 2B. His numbers at 2B were pretty mediocre. In 2021 he spent most of his time in LF but surprisingly his numbers were averageish there too.

A guy who can only play an average 2B is unlikely to be an incredible SS.

But Arcia's defense at SS specifically has been in decline for a while. When he first came up he was a good SS. His 2017 and 2018 numbers were good but he fell off in 2019. His numbers have never really recovered at SS with average defense being his ceiling. Statcast has him a little below average this year. I expected worse but it's still early.

I'll also say, Arcia doesn't do great on the eye test either. Over his time here he's looked very mediocre at SS.

I do think the Braves love for Arcia is overstated. They were trying hard to shift Grissom to SS in the offseason and talked that up. Not something you do if you love a guy. Also, they've kept Arcia buried in the 9th spot. So I don't think the Braves are big believers in his hot start.

[Super]

All this effort and these words to combat the idea that Arcia can be a cheap 2 WAR SS on a stacked team. Amazing, useless dedication.

[striker42]

All this effort and these words to combat the idea that Arcia can be a cheap 2 WAR SS on a stacked team. Amazing, useless dedication.

You said yourself how stacked the team is. On a worse team no one would be saying much about Arcia as there would be other more pressing problems to discuss.

[thewupk]

You said yourself how stacked the team is. On a worse team no one would be saying much about Arcia as there would be other more pressing problems to discuss.

I feel the opposite. On a non stacked lineup SS would be an area where we could look to make a big upgrade. Simple fact is you aren't going to have all-star at every position. Arcia at SS is a nice roleplayer which is what the team needs.

[The Chosen One]

His main position last year was 2B. He played in the OF for a little bit but only a fraction of the time he spent at 2B. His numbers at 2B were pretty mediocre. In 2021 he spent most of his time in LF but surprisingly his numbers were averageish there too.

A guy who can only play an average 2B is unlikely to be an incredible SS.

But Arcia's defense at SS specifically has been in decline for a while. When he first came up he was a good SS. His 2017 and 2018 numbers were good but he fell off in 2019. His numbers have never really recovered at SS with average defense being his ceiling. Statcast has him a little below average this year. I expected worse but it's still early.

I'll also say, Arcia doesn't do great on the eye test either. Over his time here he's looked very mediocre at SS.

I do think the Braves love for Arcia is overstated. They were trying hard to shift Grissom to SS in the offseason and talked that up. Not something you do if you love a guy. Also, they've kept Arcia buried in the 9th spot. So I don't think the Braves are big believers in his hot start.

Harris was in the 9th hole when he was hot last year. Only hitting leadoff to spell Ronnie IIRC. How many times did we hear Chip say having Harris bat 9th with Ronnie 1st is having two lead off hitters?

[bravesfanforlife88]

According to FG, just for ****s and giggles I looked up MLB WAR by teams.

Braves 35.7 (best in baseball ahead of the Blue Jays)
Mets 32.8
Phillies 29.6
Marlins 24.2

That takes into account every position, starting pitchers, and relief pitchers

[Enscheff]

SS is not a place to spend resources for this current incarnation of the Braves. I realize there are folks who are unwilling to walk back statements about how bad Arcia is, or how great Grissom would be, but the fact of the matter is a ~2 win SS making pocket change is a perfectly fine solution for a championship caliber team.

It should surprise nobody that the worst positions on the field are CF (injured Harris), LF and DH (bad players)...maybe focus there.

[bravesfanforlife88]

SS is not a place to spend resources for this current incarnation of the Braves. I realize there are folks who are unwilling to walk back statements about how bad Arcia is, or how great Grissom would be, but the fact of the matter is a ~2 win SS making pocket change is a perfectly fine solution for a championship caliber team.

It should surprise nobody that the worst positions on the field are CF (injured Harris), LF and DH (bad players)...maybe focus there.

Those are areas of concern, but I feel like the most pressing concern is the rotation. With only 3 main starters, we are putting a ton of stress on the bullpen and it has been showing.

[striker42]

You upgrade based on what's available. That being said, SS is thin in the league.

[Hudson2]

SP is the obvious hole right now. You get another SP and the bullpen will have less stress on it. With 2 good hitting catchers we can live with 1 of them at DH so LF is the obvious hole and Rosario and Ozuna have showed signs of life.

[Carp]

His main position last year was 2B. He played in the OF for a little bit but only a fraction of the time he spent at 2B. His numbers at 2B were pretty mediocre. In 2021 he spent most of his time in LF but surprisingly his numbers were averageish there too.

A guy who can only play an average 2B is unlikely to be an incredible SS.

Plenty of guys struggle learning a new position. Did you bother seeing why his defensive ratings were mediocre at 2b? Was it lack of range? Poor defensive alignment? Lack of assists?

So far, statistically he's back to being the roughly average defensive SS he was in 2020. And the eye test matches what the stats suggest as well. Just admit you were wrong and move on.