I've gone back and forth on this move. Where I've ultimately landed at is, although I do fully trust AA, this feels like a kid who could use a lot more development time. He simply hasn't been pitching that long, and I would think additional learning through the minors on a normal routine schedule would do him well. Now his role is a bit undefined at the major league level, and he'll be thrown into a role he's not used to. We will see how it all pans out. Remember, there is nothing mandating that he has to remain up the rest of the season. So maybe this will be a short term stay.
I think if he's not here to stay, the move goes from odd to questionable. If he's yo-yoed, the Braves have basically started the clock for a marginal contribution. The mid-range bullpen situation is a mess, but this is what you get when you hitch your wagon to the likes of Lucas Luetge. I don't know--and none of us do one way or the other--if this move is the way to correct that. I would have waited to see what happened when Lee returned and see if Yates and Jimenez solidify their spots.
My guess is that Smith-Shawver will get his feet wet with some low-leverage innings out of the bullpen and be in the rotation in a month. I think there's concerns about both Fried and Wright both this season and long-term and Shuster and Dodd both look like 5/6 guys. With Morton likely retiring, Fried possibly leaving after 2024, and Wright's future being up in the air, the front office probably wants Smith-Shawver ready for a rotation spot in 2024 and part of this strategy is giving him a considerable of innings this season.
Last edited by 50PoundHead; 06-01-2023 at 10:29 AM.
jpx7 (06-02-2023)
I think if he shows being anywhere near ready in his bullpen innings, he'll be in the rotation by the All-Star break. I'm admittedly on the cautious side of prospect promotion so I really don't like the move that much, but Strider's meteoric rise and continued success seems to be the precedent the front office wants to follow. As with everything else, we'll just have to wait and see.
jpx7 (06-02-2023)
Yes and no. Once he's on the 40-man, he's on the 40-man and options start to matter. They can play with the arbitration clock, but given how they've operated the past couple of seasons, they just buy out the arbitration years anyway. If he pitches well, I expect that they'll take a similar approach to what they took with Harris.
jpx7 (06-02-2023)
To add to this, there is no way AA hasn't considered the yo-yo affect especially for AJSS. I'll stop beating this horse...but my concern is 3 years of high school pitching and 100 innings is baby progress. The times I have seen him, he wasn't Doc Gooden (he was good though). IF and that's a big IF, he's in the majors for good, the bullpen just doesn't seem a great way to maximize his development, but then again someone will say, but "so and so" did it. I get it. But to 50's point, if he's yo-yo'ed, it's a strategy that is un-AA like in that it is short-sighted.
I'm going to make this unpopular assessment based on AAA statcast data: I don't think anyone will care about AJ's "clock" 3 years from now.
Hopefully something in his MLB data changes my mind.
Two theories here - 1) Cheff is right and AJ sucks- and we may as well get some good relief innings out of him right now before a book is on him -because he’s never going to amount to anything…..or:
2) AA shot him up through the system like a meteor because the org has seen something very elite in him ….
Rushing a kid with below avg stuff up at age 20 makes no sense. We're in win now mode, and I don't think AA thinks rushing a kid with bad stuff is gonna somehow make the pen better. Either AA is an idiot or this kid has good stuff... there is no in between
I've stated that his stuff is good. I just don't pay attention to spin rates much. I keep video of watching them but lately been too lazy to clog up my camera with all of them...that said, I do think AJSS is good. But mlb good? Meh....somewhere between idiot and good stuff is an apt description...lol.
I trust AA and his team on this. We’ll see.
Tough to tell on video, but I do think AJSS has a lot of deception with his delivery. I think that is helping him a lot. But deception is less effective the more looks batters get.