AJ Smith-Shawver Called Up

[Garmel]

I still believe AJ will be the one going down once Lee comes back.

[bravesfanMatt]

I still believe AJ will be the one going down once Lee comes back.

way to play the odds by being vague. I like it.

[Garmel]

Okay. lol

[zbhargrove]

I still believe AJ will be the one going down once Lee comes back.

That just makes zero sense... caveat... not a whole lot makes sense in this situation at the moment

[Super]

This is also the dude who let us know that Soroka is now trash watching him once after not pitching in the majors for almost 3 years.

Gotta trust his judgement

[Tapate50]

I still believe AJ will be the one going down once Lee comes back.

They taking turns with CY's mom?

[Garmel]

They taking turns with CY's mom?

Isn't everybody?

[Buzzworm]

After seeing Strasburg’s career is over and knowing all the other countless examples of pitchers having a short shelf life, I don’t pay attention to clocks and such any longer.
Use them until they break and I think AA thinks the same way.
Hopefully he is Strider 2.0 as far as success.

[msstate7]

Bringing him up to sit the bench is a strange move. Maybe watching mlb guys was the last step in development

[UNCBlue012]

Odd move. He's at 33 IP this year, so there's no real need to limit innings in the BP.

For his 5/25 start in AAA I see the FA at 91.8-96.9, with that 96.9 coming on his 76th pitch when he was likely emptying the tank in his last inning. The spin rate on it looks to be averaging around 2200. That's mediocre spin on a FA, so I would expect 8" of rise or less (Soroka just spun his at 2400 and has below average rise on a FA that is clearly his worst pitch).

AJ spun the curve at ~2300, the slider/cutter at ~1900. For reference, the average MLB curve spins at 2506, and the average MLB slider/cutter spins at 2401 in 2023. Those are the MLB average...not top end...average.

I have a very hard time believing AJSS comes equipped with a 70 grade FA and a 70 grade breaking ball of any kind with those very mediocre spin rates, but we will see what the MLB statcast data says. FWIW, FG currenty rates them both as 50 with room to grow to 60s. That seems much more in line with what the AAA data shows.

FYI - Yesterday, fastball was 2199, 1932 for slider and 2224 for curveball: https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savan...r-pitching-mlb

[atl717]

I didn’t see anything to get excited about stuff wise. The slider looked awful and the fastball very hittable. He’s going to need to be pristine with location.

[bravesfanMatt]

I mean, can you even call that a slider? More of a change up at this point. 9 mph difference from FA.. but nothing looked special. best thing for him is a big frame that could project to more as he develops.

[atl717]

That’s definitely what I noticed the most, how broad he was more so than the arsenal. Don’t know how that would translate to spinning a baseball though.

[Super]

That’s definitely what I noticed the most, how broad he was more so than the arsenal. Don’t know how that would translate to spinning a baseball though.

He’s big and broad for a small guy amirite?

[Enscheff]

Odd move. He's at 33 IP this year, so there's no real need to limit innings in the BP.

For his 5/25 start in AAA I see the FA at 91.8-96.9, with that 96.9 coming on his 76th pitch when he was likely emptying the tank in his last inning. The spin rate on it looks to be averaging around 2200. That's mediocre spin on a FA, so I would expect 8" of rise or less (Soroka just spun his at 2400 and has below average rise on a FA that is clearly his worst pitch).

AJ spun the curve at ~2300, the slider/cutter at ~1900. For reference, the average MLB curve spins at 2506, and the average MLB slider/cutter spins at 2401 in 2023. Those are the MLB average...not top end...average.

I have a very hard time believing AJSS comes equipped with a 70 grade FA and a 70 grade breaking ball of any kind with those very mediocre spin rates, but we will see what the MLB statcast data says. FWIW, FG currenty rates them both as 50 with room to grow to 60s. That seems much more in line with what the AAA data shows.

Here's what we actually witnessed:

FA at 94.7, which is above average. Somehow he got 9.9" of rise...which is close to Grade 80. His 3.0" of arm-side run is below average, but who cares, this is a plus rising FA. AJSS somehow turns mediocre spin into massive rise on a relatively straight FA. The same metric has Strider at 10.1" of rise, and AJSS is right there with him, albeit a few ticks less in velocity. This FA is what what we would see when Strider backs off a bit if he could keep his rising action at lower velocity.

SL at 85.1, which is average velocity. Glove-side break of 2.5" is average horizontally, and 2.0" of "rise" is average vertically. What I saw was a kid unable to finish his breaking ball, and left it up and all over the place, but if he executes this is an average or better pitch.

CU at 77.9, which again, is right around average velocity. Glove-side break of 4.8" is right around average, and 8.5" of sink is like Grade 70. This is a downer curve that's a legit plus or better out pitch.

So, I don't really know what to say. It's almost like someone took a MLB-quality raw arm, stuck him in a Statcast performance lab for 6 months to optimize his spin efficiency, and then unleashed him on minor league baseball. The data I just posted does not match the eye test, and now I have to re-watch the condensed version of this game to see what I missed. If that is his true arsenal he absolutely should be starting the next time his rotation spot opens, and we get to witness someone "learn how to pitch" who actually has a chance to be an impact SP. He is now the most fascinating player on the roster to me.

[bravesfanMatt]

Eye tests are hard. But there were a couple of pitches in his second inning that ran arm side more than the first inning. It was cutting and popping like young Kennelly. But other times it looked straight. The slider was straight with drop. Why I keep calling it a change. But regardless if he has a plus FA and a good curve(don’t remember those) then that slider can be whatever.

I didn’t think his fastball would grade that high though.

[Enscheff]

Just rewatched his outing. The first thing to note is the camera angle is set pretty far into LF, making it tough to judge movement towards the LHH batters box.

Second thing to note is he didn’t execute a single breaking ball like a professional pitcher in his first inning of work. Every single breaking ball was belt high or higher, except the 2 he bounced a foot in front of the plate. So it’s hard to judge these pitches from that angle and when they are so poorly executed.

Starting in the 7th he showed up. He snapped off 2 good sliders to walker, then a nice downer curve that missed low and away. That curve should have made us take notice as it was clearly a nice downer.

Then he snapped off a nice slider to Rojas down and in to make the count 1-1, before throwing a couple FA right down the middle by him.

In the 8th he completely lost it to walk the lead off batter on a horrid series of pitches, struggled to retire perdomo, and was then pulled for some unknown reason immediately after only 8 batters.

Perhaps he was on some sort of strict 40 pitch limit?

It will be fascinating to watch him attempt to replicate that 7th inning more consistently because the pieces are there.

[striker42]

Here's what we actually witnessed:

FA at 94.7, which is above average. Somehow he got 9.9" of rise...which is close to Grade 80. His 3.0" of arm-side run is below average, but who cares, this is a plus rising FA. AJSS somehow turns mediocre spin into massive rise on a relatively straight FA. The same metric has Strider at 10.1" of rise, and AJSS is right there with him, albeit a few ticks less in velocity. This FA is what what we would see when Strider backs off a bit if he could keep his rising action at lower velocity.

SL at 85.1, which is average velocity. Glove-side break of 2.5" is average horizontally, and 2.0" of "rise" is average vertically. What I saw was a kid unable to finish his breaking ball, and left it up and all over the place, but if he executes this is an average or better pitch.

CU at 77.9, which again, is right around average velocity. Glove-side break of 4.8" is right around average, and 8.5" of sink is like Grade 70. This is a downer curve that's a legit plus or better out pitch.

So, I don't really know what to say. It's almost like someone took a MLB-quality raw arm, stuck him in a Statcast performance lab for 6 months to optimize his spin efficiency, and then unleashed him on minor league baseball. The data I just posted does not match the eye test, and now I have to re-watch the condensed version of this game to see what I missed. If that is his true arsenal he absolutely should be starting the next time his rotation spot opens, and we get to witness someone "learn how to pitch" who actually has a chance to be an impact SP. He is now the most fascinating player on the roster to me.

Thanks for the writeup. I noticed his Active Spin % on his four seamer was 99. Basically every bit of spin he gets translates into movement.

Fascinating is a good word for him. I think we see now why the Braves rushed him through the system. AA generally has a good handle on the data.

[Deester11]

Thanks for the writeup. I noticed his Active Spin % on his four seamer was 99. Basically every bit of spin he gets translates into movement.

Fascinating is a good word for him. I think we see now why the Braves rushed him through the system. AA generally has a good handle on the data.

I generally like him and given this data, I don't think it is entirely different then when I saw him in the minors using the "eye test" only. But it is also a seasoning thing for me in which his learning to pitch was identical to what Enscheff stated: breaking ball location and execution. I was less worried about minor league hitters teeing off on his FB. The rise data on his fb is interesting because it adds more context than just a straight FB. They must definitely want him to learn on the job.

[bravesfanMatt]

I generally like him and given this data, I don't think it is entirely different then when I saw him in the minors using the "eye test" only. But it is also a seasoning thing for me in which his learning to pitch was identical to what Enscheff stated: breaking ball location and execution. I was less worried about minor league hitters teeing off on his FB. The rise data on his fb is interesting because it adds more context than just a straight FB. They must definitely want him to learn on the job.

Tools and resources are probably better the higher you go. Not saying you have to rush someone to develop them, but if they have the pure stuff and only need refinement, then moving to MLB might not be so bad.. It probably doesn't hurt to talk to guys like Strider and Morton.. especially Mort since he loves his FA/Curve combo.