Ronald Acuna Jr. 40-40 Club

[AJonesATL]

On this off day, I just thought Acuna appreciation deserved its own thread.

25 years old, the best player in baseball, the MVP to come. 8 WAR season and counting. 40 bombs, 68 steals, 337 average. Advanced stats that are even better. This guy is the face of baseball. He is an all timer. Baseball is a team game, but I hope the Braves / MLB do what they can to capitalize on Acuna. He needs to be celebrated as the ultimate super star in this sport. He is a Griffey / A-Rod / Trout type of talent and he has the personality to be a true star.

On a related note, kind of nuts that Braves fans got to watch Chipper from 95 to 2012 (17 years), took 5-years off and then got Acuna from 2018 and counting. That is just two generational talents will get to watch over a hopefully 30+ year type period.

[thewupk]

Baseball is just too regional now to have another Griffey imo. Acuna is special and the Braves need to lock him up for life.

[bravesfanMatt]

You can’t market a player. You have to market the game ad highlight the players. Most non brave fans don’t like Acuna. He is cocky and showboats. And he is good. So he naturally is hated. If the Braves sucked then people would like him because he is just a good player that isn’t getting in the way of other teams hopes and dreams.

Baseball just needs to make it easier for fans to enjoy the product and market the product as a whole.

[Enscheff]

The most impressive stat is he cut his K rate in half while losing nothing. That just doesn’t happen in this sport, and is why he’s a unicorn.

If the next adjustment he makes is cranking the fly ball rate to 40% like he was doing in 2020/2021 he becomes an all time great.

If the next adjustment after that is to accept the walks associated with all that additional power he can become the best hitter of all time.

[bravesfanMatt]

My god as hard as hit hits everything, I can’t imagine his numbers with a fly ball rate of 40 or higher.

[Heyward]

AA needs to adjust his contract this winter. I know he still has 4 or 5 years left so there's still time but he deserves it. Although in his case, he may just want to play it out and test free agency. His K/walk rate is the most impressive though, among many other things.

[Nerfherders]

Whats his fly ball rate been since the Dodger series? That's when it seemed like he 'decided' to hit long balls, almost as if he was like, "Hey I thought I had this MVP thing in the bag, well watch this."

[Carp]

You can’t market a player. You have to market the game ad highlight the players. Most non brave fans don’t like Acuna. He is cocky and showboats. And he is good. So he naturally is hated. If the Braves sucked then people would like him because he is just a good player that isn’t getting in the way of other teams hopes and dreams.

Baseball just needs to make it easier for fans to enjoy the product and market the product as a whole.

Well that simply isn't true. At least in other sports you have Jordan, Kobe, LeBron, Tiger, Peyton, Brady, Rodgers, Mahomes, etc. All players who transcended their sports from a pop culture perspective. And that hasn't always been true in baseball either. In the 80's/90's, you absolutely saw players transcend the sport. Bo Jackson and Deon Sanders (granted they were 2 sport athletes) and of course, the Kid. Griffey was the last superstar to really transcend the game of baseball on a pop culture level. From backward hats to shoe deals to rookie cards, he was a 90s pop culture icon. And since then, baseball has failed to market it's superstars. You could argue maybe Jeter, but he was not nearly on the level of the guys that came before him on pop culture level.

[AJonesATL]

I actually think most casual fans love Acuna. Sure he might have some beef with stubborn players that take offense to his excitement, but l find most casual fans I speak with tend to think he’s great and can see the difference between someone that is a prick in show boating vs someone that truly just is like an excited kid

[thewupk]

Whats his fly ball rate been since the Dodger series? That's when it seemed like he 'decided' to hit long balls, almost as if he was like, "Hey I thought I had this MVP thing in the bag, well watch this."

41.5%

He's had a 210 WRC+ since the start of the Dodger series. Looks like he took the Mookie for MVP talk personally.

[cajunrevenge]

One thing that strikes me about Acuna having not watched him every day, he has no bad splits. You would think in one situation just by bad luck or coincidence he wouldnt have good stats or a bad month or so, but no, every split is good. He even got better in the second half hitting for a higher average, more walks than k's, and 2 less HR in 100 less at bats. I think that consistency is what you want and dream for in an MVP caliber player. Mookie on the other hand had 3 scorching hot months and 3 mediocre months. Including this month he would have 2 months hitting below .240. Acuna's 2 worst months with batting average were .298 and .326. Dudes even hitting .337 on 0-2 counts.

[zbhargrove]

Man I just pray we can see an entire long Acuña healthy career. I just want to see what kind of numbers he can put up. Seems like he has the ability to adjust to whatever he wants to do.

[Enscheff]

The sooner he realizes those SBs are next meaningless, the better. A single injury from running the bases costs more value than all his career SBs combined.

There’s a reason Betts doesn’t steal bases.

[Garmel]

Whats his fly ball rate been since the Dodger series? That's when it seemed like he 'decided' to hit long balls, almost as if he was like, "Hey I thought I had this MVP thing in the bag, well watch this."

I checked. Since the 1st game with the Dodgers on August 31 his fly ball rate is at 41.5%.

[thewupk]

The sooner he realizes those SBs are next meaningless, the better. A single injury from running the bases costs more value than all his career SBs combined.

There’s a reason Betts doesn’t steal bases.

It's about a tenth of his value offensivley this season.

And for whatever it's worth. It's the reason he's going to win the MVP

[zbhargrove]

I disagree the SB are next to meaningless. It gets in the pitchers heads… Fangraphs showed that it leads to more fastballs for the hitters behind him. And it can turn a single into a runner in scoring position. Calling all that next to meaningless is a bit of a stretch. Still I’d rather him err on the side of health.

[Enscheff]

It's about a tenth of his value offensivley this season.

And for whatever it's worth. It's the reason he's going to win the MVP

This isn’t close to accurate.

Acuna has 5.2 BsR contributing to 67.3 OffR. That’s not 10%, actually 7.7%.

Additionally, BsR is all base running, not just stolen bases…which add very little value. East check is Betts himself, who has 3.1 BsR despite only 13 SBs compared to Acuna’s 68.

So my point stands…55 more SBs results in ~2.1 BsR of value added, assuming Betts and Acuna are roughly equivalent base runners. That is next to meaningless by any definition... except by someone trying to defend meaningless SBs.

[Enscheff]

I disagree the SB are next to meaningless. It gets in the pitchers heads… Fangraphs showed that it leads to more fastballs for the hitters behind him. And it can turn a single into a runner in scoring position. Calling all that next to meaningless is a bit of a stretch. Still I’d rather him err on the side of health.

You didn’t read the whole article. They continued to show that more fastballs hasn’t translated to more production.

So my point stands, SBs are close to meaningless without a very high success rate.

Casual fans love them though, which is why they will win Acuna the MVP this year. The truth is Betts’ far superior defensive value more than trumps Acuna’s SBs, but again, casual fans mistake Acuna’s elite arm for elite defense.

[thewupk]

This isn’t close to accurate.

Acuna has 5.2 BsR contributing to 67.3 OffR. That’s not 10%, actually 7.7%.

Additionally, BsR is all base running, not just stolen bases…which add very little value. East check is Betts himself, who has 3.1 BsR despite only 13 SBs compared to Acuna’s 68.

So my point stands…55 more SBs results in ~2.1 BsR of value added, assuming Betts and Acuna are roughly equivalent base runners. That is next to meaningless by any definition... except by someone trying to defend meaningless SBs.

BsR includes double plays which has nothing to do with steals and very little with base running. It's odd that it's included. But Acuna is negative in this category for a few reasons that I don't feel he should be punished for. That said, his wSB is 6.4, which is all about steals. And 6.4 of his overall 67.3 runs offensively comes out to 9.5% which is close enough to a tenth for me.

[CyYoung31]

You didn’t read the whole article. They continued to show that more fastballs hasn’t translated to more production.

So my point stands, SBs are close to meaningless without a very high success rate.

Casual fans love them though, which is why they will win Acuna the MVP this year. The truth is Betts’ far superior defensive value more than trumps Acuna’s SBs, but again, casual fans mistake Acuna’s elite arm for elite defense.

What will win Acuña MVP this year is that he’s, now, having a better offensive season than Betts. AND Betts’ superior defense can’t realistically provide enough value to make up the difference when they play the same position, especially when it’s one of the “least” valuable defensive positions on the field, regardless of what fWAR says.

That’s the argument for Acuña to win MVP, not a bunch of meaningless stolen bases.