Arizona Fall League Updates

[50PoundHead]

I'll be honest, other than a few of our higher profile prospects, this year was tough to watch. Middling is what I'd call 70% of the guys I watched this year. Of course I knew going in, it was going to be a "down" year for the system although there are always standouts. To me, McCabe is mildly interesting.

Where I need some clarity is this....I thought the Braves usually sent a group of higher potential prospects to the AFL. Metrics may show that this group has higher potential than I'm aware of but they all seem lower tier to me. Maybe they needed work?

I was surprised Baldwin wasn't sent there, but they opted to give Tolve some ABs instead. Milligan is the other guy I thought would be there even though he's not one of our Top 30. Alvarez might have made sense, but looking at the rosters, I didn't see any high school guys from the 2022 draft included. I don't know if there's a rule that says a prospect can only play one year in the league. If so, that would eliminate Waddell, Conley, and Franklin V. Plus, I never saw an instructional league roster and I think that's where a lot of the younger prospects spend their October and November.

I don't know how the Braves are approaching the 2023 college pitchers they drafted, but outside of Waldrep, I wouldn't have been surprised to see Hackenburg or Kuehler there, but I imagine the Braves are trying to limit innings. I think there are a couple of college 2023 draftees playing in the league, but it's rare. I obviously know nothing about the Braves' mindset as to who goes and who doesn't, but I think Tyler Owens and Jared Johnson would have made more sense than McSteen and Halligan.

Like you said, it was a meh year in the system. There are a few guys who look like they may make it all the way up, but the system is just so thin right now.

[50PoundHead]

Tuesday Game: Mesa Solar Sox 7, Salt River Rafters 3

McCabe 1/2, 2 BB
Tolve 0/4 2 K

Vines 4 IP, 5 H, 5 R, 4 ER, 6 K, 1 BB, 1 HRA, 67P/43S

[Nerfherders]

I'm curious if people actually go to these games or if they are more like Gulf Coast League on back fields?

[50PoundHead]

I'm curious if people actually go to these games or if they are more like Gulf Coast League on back fields?

It's probably a lot like the Gulf Coast League, but jpx7 probably knows better. I think he went to a game last year. Now and then, there will be a live feed that you can watch on the Arizona Fall League website, but it's shot from well behind homeplate, so you can't see if there are any stands or fans in them.

[CyYoung31]

I remember when MLB broadcasted the AFL championship in 2017 that had Riley, Acuña, and Fried on the winning team. That was a fun watch and good dreaming. Little did I know that core would turn out even better than I could’ve possibly hoped for.

[Nerfherders]

I looked it up. You can get tickets to any game - $12 for individual tickets. That must mean they are playing at the main ST stadiums.

[Nerfherders]

That same year, 2017, I saw the Firefrogs play - that team had Acuna and Riley on it.

[jpx7]

It's probably a lot like the Gulf Coast League, but jpx7 probably knows better. I think he went to a game last year. Now and then, there will be a live feed that you can watch on the Arizona Fall League website, but it's shot from well behind homeplate, so you can't see if there are any stands or fans in them.

I looked it up. You can get tickets to any game - $12 for individual tickets. That must mean they are playing at the main ST stadiums.

They are playing at ST stadia, yes. It's an entirely different vibe, though: way less pomp than ST, concessions (the few of them that are open, at least) are cheaper than ST games (so you can have a couple beers and hot dogs and not feel like it cost as much as a Costco trip), and the majority of "fans" are either scouts or friends/family members of prospects taking a vacation where they also get to watch their kid/brother/boyfriend play ball. Another ~20% are composed of retirees that get really into following/cheering their neighborhood/community team (which I sincerely find kind of cool—gives it a small-town, A-ball vibe) and randos like me who try to pop in for a game out of generalized interest.

Unfortunately, I haven't made it to any games this year, due to a combination of (a) no Justyn-Henry Malloy to follow and (b) spending a few of my recent free days at Dbacks playoff games instead of AFL games. Might consider seeing a game tomorrow, though.

[50PoundHead]

Salt River loses to Peoria 10-8 in Arizona Fall League regular-season finale. No playoffs for Salt River as they finish the season with a 14-16 record.

Ogans 1/5, R, SB (5), 2 K

Halligan 0.2 IP, 3 H, 2 R, 2 ER, 13P/7S

Here is the stat page for the Rafters with the season stats for each player: https://www.mlb.com/arizona-fall-lea...-river-rafters

There were a few ex-Braves' minor league players on AFL rosters. Alec Barger who went to the Rockies in the Brad Hand deal pitched for Salt River. Royber Salinas (to the A's in the Murphy deal) and Caleb Durbin (to the Yankees in the Luetge deal) played with Mesa. C.J. Alexander (shipped along with Waters and Hoffman to the Royals in the draft pick deal that turned out to be JR Ritchie) played for Surprise.

Durbin turned out to be one of the top statistical performers in the AFL. It's always difficult to determine whether these AFL stats mean all that much in the larger scheme of things, but the thing I found interesting about Durbin came from a couple of interviews he did in which he differentiated somewhat obliquely the hitting instruction between the Braves' and Yankees' player development system.

Here is the link to the interview at the AFL homepage: https://www.mlb.com/news/yankees-cal...in-fall-league

Durbin was the Braves' 14th round pick in the 2021 draft and the thing that stood out was that even though he played at the D3 level at Washington (MO) University, he never struck out (10 times in 439 PAs over three seasons). His K-rate jumped (but was still good) his only full-season in the Braves' system in 2022, but then fell back (although not to his college levels) in 2023 in the Yankees' system. He's also shown ability on the base paths. I'm not going to be one of those guys who bemoans when the Braves trade a prospect (although I could never figure out the infatuation with Luetge) and who knows what Durbin's projection is (he has played mostly 2B, but also some SS and 3B, so versatility could be a plus if he can continue to show out with his bat and feet), but he's at least interesting. As a side note, he was a very good high school wrestler making it to the Illinois state tournament as a senior and in my long career I've learned that you never bet against a wrestler. They are indefatigable.

For the record, his AFL stat line was:

Batting Average: .353 (4th in AFL)
On-Base Percentage: .455 (5th)
Slugging: .588 (4th)
Stolen Bases: 21 (1st)