FA SP Targets

[50PoundHead]

I wonder if they try to sell high on Elder.

[ixiXSolidXixi]

I don't think it should be ruled out that AA trades Arcia for an OF and uses Lopez as the starting SS. He's shown he can be incredibly valuable at the position and there's probably no better time to try and move Arcia.

I think Lopez is the perfect utility.

[jpx7]

If we're gonna take a big money risk on a pitcher I'd personally rather us go after the Captain-Commander

Fried
Strider
Yamamoto
Morton
Elder

While working in

AJSS
Waldrep
Anderson
Ynoa

And for depth

Allard
Shuster
Winans
Vines
Dodd

Value wise that may be the only “deal” to be had.

Yamamoto has the age and talent behind him. If we made a big money investment I’d go after him. No QO involved just have to pay a posting fee.

Have to agree Yamamoto is the best option of the "big money" FA SP, especially when you consider the lack of QO (the penalties for which I'd imagined outweigh the additional cost associated with the posting-fee). While I think someone like Maeda presents potentially-great value, and someone like Rodriguez checks some other boxes, Yamamoto is also the likeliest to bring "ace"-like production (which is relevant beyond 2024, with Fried's impending FA).

Just remains to be seen if Anthopoulos is willing to wade into that dollar-area for a thrower, as opposed to a hitter.

[Slippyjms]

I think Lopez is the perfect utility.

He's actually probably a bit overqualified for UTIL. His glove at SS is probably the best in MLB and he actually put up a 6 fWAR the season before the Royals gave the SS job to Bobby Witt Jr. He also has excellent base running ability. If he started the whole year I'd expect to get a floor of 3 fWAR from him.

[Slippyjms]

I wonder if they try to sell high on Elder.

I doubt they move Elder. He's Pre-Arb and performed well this year. It's also possible that he continues to develop.

[Slippyjms]

Have to agree Yamamoto is the best option of the "big money" FA SP, especially when you consider the lack of QO (the penalties for which I'd imagined outweigh the additional cost associated with the posting-fee). While I think someone like Maeda presents potentially-great value, and someone like Rodriguez checks some other boxes, Yamamoto is also the likeliest to bring "ace"-like production (which is relevant beyond 2024, with Fried's impending FA).

Just remains to be seen if Anthopoulos is willing to wade into that dollar-area for a thrower, as opposed to a hitter.

He's been willing to hand out big money deals to players in early to mid 20s. He's just not big on splurging on decline years.

[Enscheff]

The same list of SPs, this time with FG's predictions added: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2024-top...b-free-agents/

Ohtani (.277, 12/528, 13/527) - not happening
Nola (.280, 6/150, 5/140) - AA probably won't go 5 years, but if Nola holds out for 6+ years he may find himself taking a pillow deal.
Snell (.291, 7/200, 5/140) - I expect someone to do something very stupid to sign Snell.
Gray (.297, 4/90, 3/78) - My pick of the offseason to be the guy the QO hurts the most, may need a pillow deal.

This next group is the FAs without a declined QO weighing down their value. This is the aisle I expect AA to be shopping.

Maeda (.300, 2/36, 2/22) - a better option than I previously considered (admittedly I didn't consider him at all), short deal may be a great fit.
Montgomery (.310, 6/150, 5/140) - probably not getting 5+ years from AA.
Rodriguez (.312, 4/82, 4/92) - he fits well on this roster, just like he would have at the deadline, but probably not at 4 years.
Stroman (.312, 2/44, 3/66) - legit option depending on years.
Lugo (.314, 3/42, 3/39) - my odds-on favorite for AA to sign.
Lorenzen (.319, 2/22) - decent filler option on a short deal.
Clevinger (.322, 2/26) - right on the edge of being good enough to bother with, especially with the injury scare this year.
Wacha (.324, 3/36, 3/33) - walked away from 3/18.5...not sure he's good enough to bother with for more than backend filler.
Giolito (.324, 2/44, 4/60) - he really killed his value this year.
Flaherty (.343, 3/40, 1/12) - no thanks.

Lugo for ~3/40 and Maeda for 2/22 still look pretty good. Stroman for 3 years makes him less appealing, as does 4 years of EdRod at a higher AAV.

[Super]

Rodriguez feels possible to me for less years than projected if Atlanta is somewhere he’d really want to be (or anywhere else). If you remove the California teams and maybe a few others, he could end up taking less than he deserves.

[trob15]

With the news of Brew crew making all players available, I think that Burnes is someone we could see a trade/extension worked out for. The question is what would AA feel comfortable extending Burnes to?

I think we could see a package centered around Elder/AJSS if AA likes the extension package. Losing AJSS would sting, but I think that's probably would it would take.

[msstate7]

Burnes' k rate has decreased 3 straight years, and his bb rate and FIP have increased 3 straight years. Any concern with that?

[trob15]

Sure definitely something that the front office has to look at and take into account.

To me, it comes down to costs/expected outcome. If Burnes was on our roster this past season, we likely are in the WS. But I also realize that AA may not want to give up AJSS.

[Enscheff]

Burnes is going to require a 5-6 year deal that takes him into his mid/late 30s when he becomes a FA. If anyone can find an instance where AA has handed out a similar deal to a SP of that age they will have something to point to as evidence AA would hand out such an extension.

Until then it’s just casual fan speculation with no logical reasoning behind it.

[50PoundHead]

Burnes is going to require a 5-6 year deal that takes him into his mid/late 30s when he becomes a FA. If anyone can find an instance where AA has handed out a similar deal to a SP of that age they will have something to point to as evidence AA would hand out such an extension.

Until then it’s just casual fan speculation with no logical reasoning behind it.

When it comes to pitching, there just always seems to be a team or two out of the gate that do something short-sighted or unrealistic that sets the temporary market price that the other free agents/extension candidates want to match and that slows down the whole process. Anthopoulos pattern has always been to wait and see how things shake out after the first few deals and then take a more reasoned approach. There are a lot of pitching possibilities out there, which could make the second-tier price fairly reasonable both in terms of years and AAV. I think the analysis at MLBTradeRumors tilts too heavily to a lot of the pitchers both in terms of years and AAV.

[bravesfanforlife88]

Watched the highlight reel of Luis Severino from 2023. I know he had a down year numbers wise, but the stuff is there. Has good offspeed stuff and his fastball sits around 96-98.

He seems like a good candidate AA might be after. With the proper implementation of analytics regarding pitch selection, perhaps he can get back to his sub-4.00 ERA self.....of course the question with him has always been health, but if the deal is decent, he'd make sense.

FG write up on him with a prediction of 1 year $10m deal.

"Of the 172 pitchers who threw at least 80 innings in 2023, Severino was the fourth worst by WAR (-0.6). On the surface, it looked like a slew of injuries had caught up to the once-electric starting pitcher. But the story isn’t as simple as Severino having been compromised by injury. His average four-seamer settled in at 96.4 mph, which was good for the 88th percentile among all pitchers. In other words, rotational power wasn’t the issue. And while he experienced slight regressions in the movement department, they weren’t not enough to explain the jump from a 3.18 ERA in 2022 to a 6.65 in 2023.

In fact, Severino had a turnaround at the end of 2023 that was quite intriguing. In his final 21.2 IP before a season-ending oblique injury, he had a 2.49 ERA, .220 BAA, and .271 xwOBA against the heater. His fastball peaked in the triple digits and he was able to sustain that velocity deep into games. He even saw progress from his slider (.224 xwOBA against) after losing the pitch for almost the entire year. He was able to command it low and away off the plate to righties at a higher rate than he had all year. That pitch was the anchor of his arsenal during his peak in 2017 and 2018, and along with maintaining his fastball velocity, will be crucial to his success in 2024. – ER"

[ixiXSolidXixi]

Severino is always hurt… We don’t need those kind of players.

[Enscheff]

When it comes to pitching, there just always seems to be a team or two out of the gate that do something short-sighted or unrealistic that sets the temporary market price that the other free agents/extension candidates want to match and that slows down the whole process. Anthopoulos pattern has always been to wait and see how things shake out after the first few deals and then take a more reasoned approach. There are a lot of pitching possibilities out there, which could make the second-tier price fairly reasonable both in terms of years and AAV. I think the analysis at MLBTradeRumors tilts too heavily to a lot of the pitchers both in terms of years and AAV.

Agreed. Most of the FA SPs are very similar. I envision AA waiting to grab whichever of those guys he can get on a 2-3 year deal.

While Burnes would be awesome to have in the rotation, he just doesn’t fit the typical “trade for and extend a young player” process AA seems to always follow. There’s a first time for everything though.

[ixiXSolidXixi]

Different players but AA trade for Tulo with 30 years old. Burnes just turn 29… I think Burnes get $30 to $35 millions a year during free agent. I doubt we add someone like him. I think Eduardo Rodriguez make more sense.

Burnes is more a top of the rotation guy and we have Strider. I think Freddy Peralta make more sense for 2024. Probably cheaper and younger.

[Enscheff]

Different players but AA trade for Tulo with 30 years old. Burnes just turn 29… I think Burnes get $30 to $35 millions a year during free agent. I doubt we add someone like him. I think Eduardo Rodriguez make more sense.

Burnes is more a top of the rotation guy and we have Strider. I think Freddy Peralta make more sense for 2024. Probably cheaper and younger.

You understand I meant AA in Atlanta after learning in LA, not when he was a bad GM in Toronto, right?

[Tapate50]

Severino for the pen?

[mfree80]

I suspect AA is making offers that are considered lowball to a lot of guys. Eventually someone will be without a chair when the music stops and will circle back to the AA offer.