MLBTR just released their Top 50 FAs article: https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2023/...edictions.html
We can use it to zero in on the FA SPs we think AA is going to target. I'll post the 2022/2023 xwOBA of every SP on the list, as well as what MLBTR projects for their next contract.
The first group are guys who declined a QO, and I think AA will stay away from them. These guys will also likely command a contract longer than AA is hopefully willing to give a FA SP. The exception could be someone like Gray or Nola who asks for too much and has to settle for a 1 year pillow deal.
Ohtani (.277, 12/528) - not happening
Nola (.280, 6/150) - AA probably won't go 5 years, but if Nola holds out for 6+ years he may find himself taking a pillow deal.
Snell (.291, 7/200) - I expect someone to do something very stupid to sign Snell.
Gray (.297, 4/90) - My pick of the offseason to be the guy the QO hurts the most, may need a pillow deal.
This next group is the FAs without a declined QO weighing down their value. This is the aisle I expect AA to be shopping.
Maeda (.300, 2/36) - a better option than I previously considered (admittedly I didn't consider him at all), short deal may be a great fit.
Montgomery (.310, 6/150) - probably not getting 5+ years from AA.
Rodriguez (.312, 4/82) - he fits well on this roster, just like he would have at the deadline, but probably not at 4 years.
Stroman (.312, 2/44) - legit option depending on years.
Lugo (.314, 3/42) - my odds-on favorite for AA to sign.
Lorenzen (.319, 2/22) - decent filler option on a short deal.
Clevinger (.322, 2/26) - right on the edge of being good enough to bother with, especially with the injury scare this year.
Wacha (.324, 3/36) - walked away from 3/18.5...not sure he's good enough to bother with for more than backend filler.
Giolito (.324, 2/44) - he really killed his value this year.
Flaherty (.343, 3/40) - no thanks.
So given all that info, I think the realistic list of FA options is: Maeda, EdRod, Stroman, Lugo and Lorenzen...all depending on contract length with shorter obviously being better.