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Thread: Soroka, Schuster, Shewmake and Lopez to the White Sox for Aaron Bummer

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    Quote Originally Posted by bravesfanforlife88 View Post
    I like this trade for Soroka. He just didn't have a future here in ATL and by going to Chicago, he should have a chance to get MLB innings on a regular basis. On top of that, that division overall is very weak so it could give him a chance to have a little success and build confidence.
    White Sox also successfully rehabilitated Jake Burger’s career after his double Achilles tear, so they should have a good idea how to manage that.

    Still crazy that stupid comebacker to the mound in an empty stadium basically ended the career of one the most promising young pitchers in Braves history.

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    This trade was more about the timing than the player values. All the guys the Braves sent out were likely going to be nontendered, and would have left for nothing. At least now AA turned those guys into something that may have value.

    Shuster and the other guy were also worth essentially zero.

    This trade was 5 guys with zero value for 1 guy who may make an impact.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Carp View Post
    .264/.321/.420 is perfectly acceptable from your SS. His wRC+ ranked 10th among qualified SS. wOBA of .321 also ranked 10th. His EV was 88.2.... How is that well below average when the MLB average is 89?

    Arcia is a perfectly acceptable starting SS if that is the route we decide to go with.

    Adames, isn't the amazing player you think he is. While he was a bit unlucky in BABIP, his EV was even lower than Arcia's. He has also seen his EV decline each of the last 2 seasons. Uncoincidentally, so has his production. I would stay clear of Adames.
    Arcia's EV was 28th percentile. So it is well below average.

    The expected stats don't like Arcia as much as his actual stats from last year showed. His .309 xwOBA ranked 17th among qualifying SSs. Adames ranked 8th with a .341.

    Arcia's average EV has declined each of the past 2 seasons as well.

    In trying to judge who to go after, I'd look more at the expected stats. Adames has a significant edge there. Add in he's a better defender and he's a good bet for an upgrade at SS.

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    We’ll need one roster spot for Ohtani, one for Soto, and maybe one for Adames. So it makes sense. In honor of clvclv can someone make a mock projected roster and payroll listing.
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    This is actually a pretty good move by the White Sox. They're rebuilding and these guys have the potential to become players with value at the deadline. If none of them come to anything, then all they lost is a lefty reliever and some money. But if Soroka gets back on track or if Lopez returns to form even a little then they could be dealt for a decent return.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Enscheff View Post
    This trade was more about the timing than the player values. All the guys the Braves sent out were likely going to be nontendered, and would have left for nothing. At least now AA turned those guys into something that may have value.

    Shuster and the other guy were also worth essentially zero.

    This trade was 5 guys with zero value for 1 guy who may make an impact.
    Exactly and Lopez is a utility that you can find during the trade deadline.

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    Quote Originally Posted by striker42 View Post
    Arcia's EV was 28th percentile. So it is well below average.

    The expected stats don't like Arcia as much as his actual stats from last year showed. His .309 xwOBA ranked 17th among qualifying SSs. Adames ranked 8th with a .341.

    Arcia's average EV has declined each of the past 2 seasons as well.

    In trying to judge who to go after, I'd look more at the expected stats. Adames has a significant edge there. Add in he's a better defender and he's a good bet for an upgrade at SS.
    Well it's a good thing that actual stats are how we actually judge players then.

    And what are you talking about? Arcia's EV has remained steady for the last several years. It was 88.2 in 2021, 88.5 in 2020, and 88.3 in 2019. Adames EV has declined 2 full MPH from his peak. He also had the lowest Hard hit rate of his career. Offensively, there is nothing to suggest he will be much, if any, better than Arcia next year. Now certainly he's an upgrade defensively, but if we were looking for a defensive upgrade, we could have just as easily kept Lopez.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Carp View Post
    Well it's a good thing that actual stats are how we actually judge players then.
    Uhh actual stats are not how you judge what a player is likely to do in the future
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    You all must be forgetting that we have Charlie “Clutch” as IF depth.

    I’m joking.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Super View Post
    Uhh actual stats are not how you judge what a player is likely to do in the future
    Sorry, I didn't state that correctly. Expected stats are not how we judge/value a players past performance.

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    Quote Originally Posted by chop2chip View Post
    Both guys will be in their 30’s on one year deals. I don’t really think that should factor much into the thinking.

    Don’t get me wrong. I have no problem walking away Kirby. I just don’t have any illusions that Bummer will offer anything substantially different. Lefty part is nice though. Maybe someone on the team can get Harper out for a change
    I believe Bummer actually has 2 club options after next year as well if he pitches well

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    Quote Originally Posted by The Chosen One View Post
    We’ll need one roster spot for Ohtani, one for Soto, and maybe one for Adames. So it makes sense. In honor of clvclv can someone make a mock projected roster and payroll listing.
    In honor of clvclv, Anthopoulos should finally put Drew Lugbauer on the 40-man roster.

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    Quote Originally Posted by zbhargrove View Post
    I believe Bummer actually has 2 club options after next year as well if he pitches well
    $7.5m with a $1.5m buyout for each year.

    So yea… if he blossom those options will be nice, but more likely those options get declined and we eat a little bit of money.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Carp View Post
    Sorry, I didn't state that correctly. Expected stats are not how we judge/value a players past performance.
    For the purposes of next season's roster, I don't really care what Arcia actually contributed this year. I care about what he's likely to contribute next year. Expected stats give you a better idea of that as they control for random luck.

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    I like the trade for both teams. If Bummer was pre-arb reliever he would have had good value but no one but the big market teams would even consider giving him the contract he has now so his value was barely anything at all. With Soroka the White Sox can hope he has a good first half and they can flip him for something of value. He has 1 year left so even if he regained his best form theres nothing for the White Sox long term. Both Soroka and Shuster need to get playing time on a bad team. Maybe Shuster turns into a solid reliever, Pierce Johnson was once a failed first round college SP as well. I really like Bummer and think we may be very happy with his contract. He has above average velocity on his FB and good breaking pitches. Strikes out a lot of batters and gets around 60% grounders on balls in play. Thats a recipe for success. I think he was a victim of being asked to do too much on a very bad team. I think the Braves can use him more situationally and I think we have a top notch development system that can hopefully help fix him much like they did Pierce Johnson. Bummer, Minter, and Matzek gives us the potential for 3 very good lefties out of the pen. Minter is a FA after the season so Bummer could potentially make Minter expendable. Bummer has some real upside for us with his options. Not the cheapest but it minimizes the risk we take. I think we will be very happy to have those options. I wont be surprised if he has a very good year for us.
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    Are you guys forgetting that Soroka just had a significant shoulder injury on top of everything else?

    Lopez is the only one on our end with any real value to a contending team. The rest are nothing burgers.

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    Adames had a .259 BABIP last year and strikes me as a guy who will regress positively in 2024. I would not be surprised to see him post 4+ wins.

    He just feels like a guy AA would trade for and then extend after clearing the organization of all SS depth, pushing Arcia to the utility role.

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    Last year we were convinced TDA and Contreras made C good enough, just like this year we were convinced Arcia and Lopez made SS good enough.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Enscheff View Post
    Last year we were convinced TDA and Contreras made C good enough, just like this year we were convinced Arcia and Lopez made SS good enough.
    In fairness, nobody expected AA to target Murphy, or acquire a Catcher of his caliber. Considering Swanson left, Ozuna looked awful, as well as Rosario, for everyone catcher wasn't a move expected to be made.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Enscheff View Post
    Adames had a .259 BABIP last year and strikes me as a guy who will regress positively in 2024. I would not be surprised to see him post 4+ wins.

    He just feels like a guy AA would trade for and then extend after clearing the organization of all SS depth, pushing Arcia to the utility role.
    Only thing makes me nervous is his declining EV values that are already not very good

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