M's are trading Kelenic, Marco Gonzales and Evan White to the Braves for something

[Enscheff]

No idea how Kelenic will progress as a Brave, but I wouldn't be at all surprised to see him sporting a hand position much like Harris and Olson during ST in an effort to shorten his bat path to the ball.

[Southcack77]

The mystery to me is the inclusion of Gonzales. If AA is just going to turn around and give him away, why didn't the Ms just do that? Why use AA as the middleman?

The only thing I can think of is the Ms needed to unload that money NOW to make a push for Ohtani.

Does cash sent out count against the luxury tax ?

I sort of think that the guy could be a placeholder that they later elect to pay someone enough to take him

[Enscheff]

Does cash sent out count against the luxury tax ?

I sort of think that the guy could be a placeholder that they later elect to pay someone enough to take him

I don't think that it does. How could they prove who the money went towards? Is it spread over 2 years for White, or 1 year for Gonzo?

So you're right, rich teams could just pay poor teams to take their bad contracts because the poor teams will never approach the cap.

[GovClintonTyree]

No idea how Kelenic will progress as a Brave, but I wouldn't be at all surprised to see him sporting a hand position much like Harris and Olson during ST in an effort to shorten his bat path to the ball.

That’s a great idea. And exactly what he needs to do. If you can hit a ball 482’, maybe create that shorter path, hit that pitch 450’ and also hit (or watch) a bunch of pitches you used to wave at.

[striker42]

I'm optimistic about Kelenic. When he put the ball in play last year, he was elite. His xwOBAcon was .457 which is top 10% of the league.

Making contact is the one thing really holding him back. Right now his contact ability can't get much worse so he has nowhere to go but up.

Considering his age, he still has a good chance of making strides in that area. If he can get his K% down to a Riley-ish 25% then he could become a stud.

[GovClintonTyree]

I'm optimistic about Kelenic. When he put the ball in play last year, he was elite. His xwOBAcon was .457 which is top 10% of the league.

Making contact is the one thing really holding him back. Right now his contact ability can't get much worse so he has nowhere to go but up.

Considering his age, he still has a good chance of making strides in that area. If he can get his K% down to a Riley-ish 25% then he could become a stud.

Making contact is the thing that keeps a lot of guys back. Me. Maybe you.

I tease, but of course that's it. I lived in Seattle most of the last decade, and have watched a lot of their challenges up close, and the reason I think this could happen is he did it. He did it for a short time, maybe a little more than a month, but he had figured it out (shortening the swing path) and was doing it. We know it's an incredibly hard thing to unlearn and relearn this particular skill. But if he gets back to it, this trade will be AA's biggest hose job of 'em all.

[cajunrevenge]

Dont discount that he wont be depended on to be a middle of the order bat like he was in Seattle. I think the lineup is so deep and dangerous that the lesser hitters in the lineup get more pitches to hit. Pitchers cant pitch around every hitter in the lineup, they have to go right after some hitters. I think thats why Arcia had such a good year. Having a lineup with the power we do is exhausting for pitchers. Cant make one mistake or its hit a mile.

[thewupk]

Dont discount that he wont be depended on to be a middle of the order bat like he was in Seattle. I think the lineup is so deep and dangerous that the lesser hitters in the lineup get more pitches to hit. Pitchers cant pitch around every hitter in the lineup, they have to go right after some hitters. I think thats why Arcia had such a good year. Having a lineup with the power we do is exhausting for pitchers. Cant make one mistake or its hit a mile.

That's where true lineup protection comes in. Acuna in front of Olson for example won't do **** for Olson. But Acuna and company in front of Arcia and Kelenic in the 8 and 9 holes? They will get pitches to hit.

[Enscheff]

Kelenic is a reasonable gamble. The results will be judged by comparing his production over the next couple years to other options like Kepler, Verdugo, Heyward and Rosario. It’s not like the other options set the bar in LF very high.

[50PoundHead]

Kelenic is a reasonable gamble. The results will be judged by comparing his production over the next couple years to other options like Kepler, Verdugo, Heyward and Rosario. It’s not like the other options set the bar in LF very high.

I think it boils down to the ceiling/percentage of reaching ceiling in play here. I think Kelenic has a higher ceiling than the other guys on the list, but his chances of reaching his ceiling is what is murky. I've always liked Verdugo, but my guess is the asking price on him included Smith-Shawver or one of the other top pitching prospects. The problem for the Braves is that their OF depth above AA is putrid and if Kelenic doesn't work out, there currently aren't other options in the system.

[chop2chip]

Kelenic is a reasonable gamble. The results will be judged by comparing his production over the next couple years to other options like Kepler, Verdugo, Heyward and Rosario. It’s not like the other options set the bar in LF very high.

JK might have a lower floor than those guys because the swing and miss, but if that becomes a problem, there’s probably not an easier position to fill at the trade deadline.

[striker42]

I think it boils down to the ceiling/percentage of reaching ceiling in play here. I think Kelenic has a higher ceiling than the other guys on the list, but his chances of reaching his ceiling is what is murky. I've always liked Verdugo, but my guess is the asking price on him included Smith-Shawver or one of the other top pitching prospects. The problem for the Braves is that their OF depth above AA is putrid and if Kelenic doesn't work out, there currently aren't other options in the system.

If Kelenic's 2023 numbers are his floor then he's essentially Verdugo right now. Verdugo had an xwOBA of .331 last year to Kelenic's .333. If Kelenic doesn't kick that water cooler he probably would have ended up with around 2.0 WAR in 600 PAs which is what Verdugo did last year.

It's entirely possible that Kelenic regresses in 2024 but I don't think that's the most likely result. At 24, I think he's a good candidate to at least maintain and could quite possibly improve somewhat. So I think there's a high liklihood of at least Verdugo like production.

[Enscheff]

Kelenic has a history of of being a malcontent and totally unplayable. He broke his foot while throwing a temper tantrum like a 12 year old who had his xbox taken away for a week. That is his floor. Don't let homerism understate the risk of the decision to essentially tie up 2/25 in this lottery ticket. That 2/25 could have easily paid for a low-risk low-end LFer like Heyward.

The risk analysis changes a bit if AA moves the bulk of Gonzo's contract, but until that happens the risk is still very real.

[Hudson2]

Kelenic is a change of scenery candidate imo. He needed to go and the Mariners knew it to. I think being around the culture of our team and the hitting instructors we have he will flourish. I may be in the minority on that but his talent level is real and he’s still young. I think it’s a steal even with the contracts we took on.

[striker42]

Kelenic has a history of of being a malcontent and totally unplayable. He broke his foot while throwing a temper tantrum like a 12 year old who had his xbox taken away for a week. That is his floor. Don't let homerism understate the risk of the decision to essentially tie up 2/25 in this lottery ticket. That 2/25 could have easily paid for a low-risk low-end LFer like Heyward.

The risk analysis changes a bit if AA moves the bulk of Gonzo's contract, but until that happens the risk is still very real.

The risk of him being a problem is definitely still there. It's less here than with Seattle just given his history with Seattle. There's also a real possibility he can't sustain what he did last year and falls back into AAAA territory. Someone like Verdugo or Heyward is much more of a known commodity.

That being said, there's the potential for an insanely high reward here. It's not an exaggeration to say that if he can drop his K% by 5 points or so, then he could blossom into a 5 WAR player. His tools are that good. When he makes contact very good things happen.

Considering the thunder elsewhere in the lineup, I'm fine taking that risk in left.

[Enscheff]

And that’s really what it all boils down to. The Braves are in a unique position that they can afford to potentially punt LF for 3-4 months in an attempt to hit the upside on a former top prospect.

It’s a perfectly reasonable risk to take, I’m just pushing back against this “2 win worst case scenario” silliness I’m reading all over the internet.

[striker42]

And that’s really what it all boils down to. The Braves are in a unique position that they can afford to potentially punt LF for 3-4 months in an attempt to hit the upside on a former top prospect.

It’s a perfectly reasonable risk to take, I’m just pushing back against this “2 win worst case scenario” silliness I’m reading all over the internet.

Yeah, no player is ever a 2 win worst case scenario. If nothing else, there's always the risk they beat up their wife/girlfriend.

I would say significant regression isn't likely but it's a real possibility. It's foolish to think otherwise. Kelenic has precisely one decent season under his belt. He needs to show he can play at a consistently high level.

I think it's likely that he puts up numbers similar to or better than last year but it's far from a sure thing.

[Russ2dollas]

And that’s really what it all boils down to. The Braves are in a unique position that they can afford to potentially punt LF for 3-4 months in an attempt to hit the upside on a former top prospect.

It’s a perfectly reasonable risk to take, I’m just pushing back against this “2 win worst case scenario” silliness I’m reading all over the internet.

Understood.

I really like the deal. I think he's solid on defense and like the LH bat.

I think the upside is very real. I think when they hit him 8th or 9th and he sees a diet of fastballs b/c they are frightened to walk anyone in front of Ronnie, he'll do very well. I think they'll treat him like Harris when they brought him up and will let him grow. I also think the Braves way will be good for him.

I liked the Gonzales part of the deal. I thought he was a solid 5th starter depth guy. Money is not crazy for a team with money. Curious to see how he's a piece in a deal. Who wants him more than AA.

Gonzales and Elder could both be great Regular season guys who help you win 100. They are just guys you don't want on your playoff roster.

[GovClintonTyree]

Gonzales and cash to the Bucs for a duffel and a tin of Skoal.

[Southcack77]

JK might have a lower floor than those guys because the swing and miss, but if that becomes a problem, there’s probably not an easier position to fill at the trade deadline.

They ate a good bit of money to take a swing, but the potential reward was almost unlimited and the long term risk basically nothing.

Finding an average or better LF at deadline is not hard line you say.