I agree with this analysis. Ohtani is actually taking an unsecured promise to pay instead of current compensation and if it were secured he would be currently taxed. The tradeoff is that if the promisor (the business) goes under, the deferred comp participant waits in line with the rest of the general creditors and, as you say, theoretically could receive pennies on the dollar. An arranged marriage with a new owner is a more probable result.