Five years later: John Sickels top 20 braves prospects for 2019

[cajunrevenge]

Riley far outperformed his projections. Just one of those good/not great prospects who ended up hitting their 1% of outcomes.I doubt even someone like thethe envisioned him becoming a 6+ WAR 3B.

I would agree Riley had everything come together for him but 1% of outcomes for him would be hitting .300 with an OBP over .360 and a slugging over .600 imo. Which he very well may reach in some peak years. Riley was absolutely mashing in the minors at a very young age. I dont know why people act like its a surprise he hit this well. I think people are letting his first few years revise his prospect history. Maybe other players success has really clouded peoples minds in terms of how special it is for a hitter to be good in the majors at the age of 22/23. It is not common at all.

[NYCBrave]

I would agree Riley had everything come together for him but 1% of outcomes for him would be hitting .300 with an OBP over .360 and a slugging over .600 imo. Which he very well may reach in some peak years. Riley was absolutely mashing in the minors at a very young age. I dont know why people act like its a surprise he hit this well. I think people are letting his first few years revise his prospect history. Maybe other players success has really clouded peoples minds in terms of how special it is for a hitter to be good in the majors at the age of 22/23. It is not common at all.

Maybe arguing semantics, but Riley finished in the top 10 in MVP voting the past 3 seasons. If that's not close to a 1% outcome for a prospect then I'm not sure what is.

[thewupk]

Riley has been the best offensive 3B in baseball the last 3 years. That's a 1% outcome. That was not a realistic projection for him.

[jpx7]

If that's not close to a 1% outcome for a prospect then I'm not sure what is.

This raises the interesting question: what percentile outcome are we seeing with Acuña, given the huge drop in k-rate alongside his 40/70 season? Are we living in his 0.1% outcome universe?

[thewupk]

This raises the interesting question: what percentile outcome are we seeing with Acuña, given the huge drop in k-rate alongside his 40/70 season? Are we living in his 0.1% outcome universe?

Not everyone's 1% is equal. That said acunas 2023 wasn't that that huge of an improvement over 2020 and 2021 in terms of WRC+ Now if he combines the low k rate with an ISO over 300 again...look out.

[Southcack77]

Or the upside was simply underestimated and you didn't actually see a 1% event.

[smootness]

I think the only way he has exceeded expectations is defensively. I think .270-.280/.350/.525-.550 was exactly what he was projected to be. If you average out his last 3 years that exactly what we got. I think peoples expectations dropped when he didnt immediately hit the ground running in the majors. He didnt take off until 24 which is the same age Kelenic is this year btw.

No, Riley was not projected to be a .900 OPS guy. Exactly 10 players in the entire league had a .900+ OPS last year. And no, not all top 100 prospects project to an .850 OPS. There were 18 players who posted that last year.

Your idea of a realistic projection for hitting prospects is insane.

[GovClintonTyree]

I think the only way he has exceeded expectations is defensively. I think .270-.280/.350/.525-.550 was exactly what he was projected to be. If you average out his last 3 years that exactly what we got. I think peoples expectations dropped when he didnt immediately hit the ground running in the majors. He didnt take off until 24 which is the same age Kelenic is this year btw.

I think you might be high.

[cajunrevenge]

Riley has been the best offensive 3B in baseball the last 3 years. That's a 1% outcome. That was not a realistic projection for him.

Jose Ramirez has statistically been the best 3B in each of the last 3 years. Riley was 2nd, 4th, and 2nd according to fangraphs. The measurement tool you are using is arbitrary because Riley is as good as he is and he would still be the same player no matter how good other 3B are. I dont rate prospects based on how highly they will rank among other players at the position because we dont know what the field of other 3B will look like in the future. Guessing on 1 player is one thing but guessing on 30 players is ridiculous.

No, Riley was not projected to be a .900 OPS guy. Exactly 10 players in the entire league had a .900+ OPS last year. And no, not all top 100 prospects project to an .850 OPS. There were 18 players who posted that last year.

Your idea of a realistic projection for hitting prospects is insane.

Riley has never posted a .900 or better OPS. There were 19 players with enough at bats with a .850 OPS or higher last year to qualify for the batting title. Theres double that amount if you count players who had the OPS but not enough at bats to qualify depending on how low in at bats you want to go. Guys like Judge and Trout only had 300 at bats.



Heres what I said "can you point out to me the hitting prospects in the top 100 besides the up the middle positions that dont project to an .850 OPS "


And heres your reponse to that "And no, not all top 100 prospects project to an .850 OPS."


Do you see the problem with your reply to my comment?


Corner players arent prospects because they have a 1% chance to be a .850+ OPS player. This is like the 25-30% chance outcome for Riley. This is the 1% chance outcome for a guy like David McCabe. I dont even think this is Riley's best. He is only 26. Guys generally peak at 27-29. If this is the 1% outcome I cant imagine what you will consider his peak years. The .00001% outcome?

[Super]

Lots of words to still be wrong. Riley’s likely outcome was not what he currently is offensively. Whether it was his 1% or 10%, what he is is not what he was projected to be.

[50PoundHead]

Interesting list. It really shows how injuries can mess things up, especially for pitching prospects. There gets to be a gripe about drafting too many pitchers and the Braves have probably drafted a few too many "projectible" high school pitchers over the years, but this list hows how injuries can really thin the pool in a hurry. COVID-year layoff probably messed up a few guys as well.

Interesting that even the players that have not performed well at the major league level (Contreras excepted) have been key components in deals to land guys like Olson and Murphy.

[cajunrevenge]

Lots of words to still be wrong. Riley’s likely outcome was not what he currently is offensively. Whether it was his 1% or 10%, what he is is not what he was projected to be.

Again, misrepresenting my statements. I suggested there was a 25-30% chance he would be around a .850 OPS hitter. I dont know your definition of likely but I would define it as greater than 50% chance.


https://www.mlb.com/news/braves-aust...cts-c265156718


Here is Chipper Jones talking about how he thinks Riley could be Freeman's protection in the lineup in 2-3 years. Thats all pretty vague but I doubt he thinks a .800 OPS hitter is going to be batting cleanup for us.



https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2019-top-100-prospects/



Heres fangraphs top 100 list from 2019. I think this is perfect for our argument because it has a handy dandy graph detailing percentage chances for his outcome. I am not a big fan of the "future value" stat but they have the odds of him being a 60-65 FV player at 20% chance and 70+ at 10% chance. Fangraphs has 60 FV defined as an All Star with a 3.4-4.9 WAR and 70 FV as top 10 hitter in the game/ 5.0-7.0 WAR player. I think a fair label based on their scale right now is 65-70 FV player for which they gave him a significantly higher chance than 1%.

[Southcack77]

Again, misrepresenting my statements. I suggested there was a 25-30% chance he would be around a .850 OPS hitter. I dont know your definition of likely but I would define it as greater than 50% chance.


https://www.mlb.com/news/braves-aust...cts-c265156718


Here is Chipper Jones talking about how he thinks Riley could be Freeman's protection in the lineup in 2-3 years. Thats all pretty vague but I doubt he thinks a .800 OPS hitter is going to be batting cleanup for us.



https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2019-top-100-prospects/



Heres fangraphs top 100 list from 2019. I think this is perfect for our argument because it has a handy dandy graph detailing percentage chances for his outcome. I am not a big fan of the "future value" stat but they have the odds of him being a 60-65 FV player at 20% chance and 70+ at 10% chance. Fangraphs has 60 FV defined as an All Star with a 3.4-4.9 WAR and 70 FV as top 10 hitter in the game/ 5.0-7.0 WAR player. I think a fair label based on their scale right now is 65-70 FV player for which they gave him a significantly higher chance than 1%.

Well done.

Sometimes folks get all wrapped up in what they thought. This outcome might have been high end but it wasn't something completely out of all expectation.

[thethe]

Well done.

Sometimes folks get all wrapped up in what they thought. This outcome might have been high end but it wasn't something completely out of all expectation.

No it wasn't - Riley absolutely destroyed the minor leagues once he got accustomed to the increased talent level at each stop.

[Carp]

Again, misrepresenting my statements. I suggested there was a 25-30% chance he would be around a .850 OPS hitter. I dont know your definition of likely but I would define it as greater than 50% chance.


https://www.mlb.com/news/braves-aust...cts-c265156718


Here is Chipper Jones talking about how he thinks Riley could be Freeman's protection in the lineup in 2-3 years. Thats all pretty vague but I doubt he thinks a .800 OPS hitter is going to be batting cleanup for us.



https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2019-top-100-prospects/



Heres fangraphs top 100 list from 2019. I think this is perfect for our argument because it has a handy dandy graph detailing percentage chances for his outcome. I am not a big fan of the "future value" stat but they have the odds of him being a 60-65 FV player at 20% chance and 70+ at 10% chance. Fangraphs has 60 FV defined as an All Star with a 3.4-4.9 WAR and 70 FV as top 10 hitter in the game/ 5.0-7.0 WAR player. I think a fair label based on their scale right now is 65-70 FV player for which they gave him a significantly higher chance than 1%.

I don't know how this became an argument about the criteria for 1%, but I would hardly use some arbitrary Fangraphs rankings used as filler in the article as some sort of evidence to the contrary.

And a 25% likelihood he became the hitter he is now is super high for any prospect. Especially for a guy who had a K% around 27% and a BB% below 8% for the first 4 years of his minor league career. There were serious swing and miss/pitch recognition concerns with Riley. Yes, if everything went right, he had the power potential to be a regular .850+ OPS hitter. But you can say that for basically every power hitter. The likelihood of that type of player reaching those levels is pretty low. Hence why I said he reached his 1% of outcomes.

[chop2chip]

No it wasn't - Riley absolutely destroyed the minor leagues once he got accustomed to the increased talent level at each stop.

Whether what Riley did in the minors is common with top prospects or not, it’s proven undoubtedly true of his big league career. The transformation he’s made to his approach at the big league level is special.

Hopefully the coaching staff can sprinkle some of the at magic onto Kelenic.

[Super]

Well done.

Sometimes folks get all wrapped up in what they thought. This outcome might have been high end but it wasn't something completely out of all expectation.

Who said it was completely out of all expectation?

Cajun said he was as projected to be what he is offensively. That’s pretty objectively untrue considering how few players are projected to be this good offensively at the major league level.

[Southcack77]

I don't know how this became an argument about the criteria for 1%, but I would hardly use some arbitrary Fangraphs rankings used as filler in the article as some sort of evidence to the contrary.

And a 25% likelihood he became the hitter he is now is super high for any prospect. Especially for a guy who had a K% around 27% and a BB% below 8% for the first 4 years of his minor league career. There were serious swing and miss/pitch recognition concerns with Riley. Yes, if everything went right, he had the power potential to be a regular .850+ OPS hitter. But you can say that for basically every power hitter. The likelihood of that type of player reaching those levels is pretty low. Hence why I said he reached his 1% of outcomes.

1% is basically saying it was unforseeable it would ever happen. That's not accurate here.

[thewupk]

Jose Ramirez has statistically been the best 3B in each of the last 3 years. Riley was 2nd, 4th, and 2nd according to fangraphs. The measurement tool you are using is arbitrary because Riley is as good as he is and he would still be the same player no matter how good other 3B are. I dont rate prospects based on how highly they will rank among other players at the position because we dont know what the field of other 3B will look like in the future. Guessing on 1 player is one thing but guessing on 30 players is ridiculous.

I don't want to argue semantics. Offensive value does include base running but I clearly meant hitting. And for that Riley has a clear advantage over anyone else in the league at 3rd the last 3 years. And I think comparing yourself agaisnt your contemparies is about the best thing a player can do. What others at your position are doing and the leagues run scoring environment matter very much.

[Buzzworm]

Reading the last page of bickering over Riley makes me feel like I did when I watched major league and the fans in the stands were arguing if it was too high or not when it was clearly going to be a homerun.
Who gives a ****?
He’s good no matter if he was supposed to be or not 😂