Out today: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2024-top-100-prospects/.
Smith-Shawver at 63, Waldrep at 85.
Smith-Shawver was a two-sport star in high school who committed to Texas Tech for football (quarterback) and baseball. He was drafted as a long-term project with a big frame (6-foot-3, 205 pounds), present arm strength, and a loose, efficient arm action that portended secondary pitch development. Smith-Shawver began to throw harder pretty quickly after he got to pro ball, with his riding fastball parked in the 93-96 mph range for entire starts in 2023 and peaking above. The Braves augmented his release point a little bit, and it has created more lateral action on his formerly velo-reliant slider than that pitch had in 2022. They also added a mid-70s rainbow curveball that has a shape that complements his fastball; it often has a little arm-side action on it that should help make it a weapon against lefties as Smith-Shawver gets feel for it.
Smith-Shawver rapidly ascended through High- and Double-A at the beginning of 2023, spent most of the year at Triple-A Gwinnett, and got a five-start cup of coffee in Atlanta before making the Braves’ playoff roster as a reliever. His surface stats leave a little bit to be desired — he walked 15% of hitters at Gwinnett, and his strikeout rate plummeted once he was in the big leagues — but let’s consider the context here. Smith-Shawver made the bigs less than two years after being drafted as a two-sport high school athlete. He did so while undergoing meaningful mechanical and repertoire tweaks, and he has the build, athleticism and mechanical attributes of a workhorse mid-rotation starter. He needs to find a more consistent release point to avoid a move to the bullpen, but it’s appropriate to project on this because many of AJ’s component parts are so new and malleable. Currently projected to be Atlanta’s sixth starter when camp breaks, Smith-Shawver is forecast here as an eventual mid-rotation stalwart and will be a superior option to Bryce Elder at the back of Atlanta’s rotation as soon as he can corral his feel for locating.
Waldrep worked just 16 innings as a freshman, but somehow managed to strike out 140 hitters in 90 innings as a sophomore at Southern Miss. He transferred to Florida for his junior year and had a nearly identical season, this time blowing away SEC hitters for most of the season. He ranked sixth on the 2023 Draft Board but fell to Atlanta at no. 24 overall due to perceived relief risk and the quality of the rest of the draft class. It has the feel of a Tim Duncan-era Spurs draft pick, an absolute coup for a contender that tends to get the most out of their own prospects and could use, at worst, another late-inning weapon in the near future.
The Braves pushed Waldrep so quickly after the draft that for a minute it looked like he’d be elevated to their postseason roster in a relief role. If the org chooses to put him on a more direct route to the majors, Waldrep certainly has the stuff to thrive in a high-leverage relief capacity, headlined by his vicious, screwball-style upper-80s changeup. It’s a devastating, airbender-esque pitch that plays against lefties and righties alike. Waldrep’s approach to pitching is such that he likely won’t work efficiently as a starter. His fastball is surprisingly hittable considering its velocity and Waldrep’s vertical arm angle, which should theoretically be helping him create bat-missing, riding life on his heater. He often has to work above the zone with his fastball for it to be effective, and Waldrep runs deep counts because of this. The ability to competently land a breaking ball for a strike contributes to his starter projection here. Waldrep has an upper-80s cutter/slider (or maybe he throws each of those now?) and threw a slower curveball in college, but the curve wasn’t so much a part of his attack after the draft (which is why we’re wondering if he’s added a cutter). Drey Jameson and Reese Olson present recent skill set comps to Waldrep, who has a no. 3 starter’s ceiling and an impact reliever’s floor.
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Originally Posted by Enscheff
