Why in Keith Lockhart's name did John Boland Schuerholz Jr trade Jermaine Dye away?

[Enscheff]

JS isn’t even responsible for Glavine/Smoltz/Chipper. That was Bobby.

But he did keep the core together, so credit must be given where due.

Again, he was a good GM who was blessed with a HoF core. Any competent professional sports management mind could have won with that, just like any competent middle manager could win with the current Braves roster.

AA is truly special. He constructed this extremely talented roster that someone like Snit can simply let run on autopilot. The roster is so talented Snit's mistakes are largely mitigated because it doesn't matter which star hits 2nd or 6th, or which high leverage BP arm pitches in the 5th or 8th.

[zitothebrave]

But he did keep the core together, so credit must be given where due.

Again, he was a good GM who was blessed with a HoF core. Any competent professional sports management mind could have won with that, just like any competent middle manager could win with the current Braves roster.

AA is truly special. He constructed this extremely talented roster that someone like Snit can simply let run on autopilot. The roster is so talented Snit's mistakes are largely mitigated because it doesn't matter which star hits 2nd or 6th, or which high leverage BP arm pitches in the 5th or 8th.

AA has a tiny bit of that Scheurholz thing, he came into the organization at a point of strength with many quality pieces there (Freeman, Swanson, Albies, Fried, Folty, Minor leaguers Acuna, SOroka, Wright, ANderson, and Riley) they only current big leaguers he accumulated as Amateurs are Harris, Strider and Vines, but where he has massively succeeded and JS failed was making the right acquisitions.

Our moves have all been basically perfect. Right guys traded out right guys coming in. Olsen basically we only lost Langeliers as a major contribution, Estes basically had a cup of coffee, Pache hasn't been able to stick around as more than a bench guy, Arcia trade was freaking brilliant, we gave up absolutely nothing, On the Murphy trade we gave up more. But it still wasn't that much as Murphy is much better than the best piece we gave up (Contreras)

[Enscheff]

I actually think the Murphy trade and subsequent extension was not a very good good series of moves at all, but I definitely agree that AA has been about as close to perfect as any GM could be. His biggest mistakes are drops in the bucket compared to the colossal mistakes we see from almost every other GM.

[Enscheff]

Also not a big fan of the Olson extension, but time will tell how he ages. I expect him to age like a typical bat only player, and it will be ugly. But hopefully I’m wrong.

[zitothebrave]

Also not a big fan of the Olson extension, but time will tell how he ages. I expect him to age like a typical bat only player, and it will be ugly. But hopefully I’m wrong.

I think the final years could be rough, He's effectively signed through his 35 year old season, and for sure big men tend to age poorly. But I'm hoping Olson ages similar to Freemna, and is at least great through his 33 year old season.

[The Chosen One]

Thank you for bringing this up. Such a bizarre trade. LaRoche was coming off a nice season too so it’s not like JS was trying to cut his losses.

I think JS might have been too high on our farm. There may have been a bit of arrogance there. We won the division in the 2005 with the “reload” of the baby Braves. 2006 was the year our bullpen was really bad. Retisma opened as closer. Wickman later had to come in. Turns out Wick did not like multiple innings.

JS overcompensated in the pen.

acquired Rafael Soriano, Gonzo, Villarreal, Cormier.

Felt Thorman was going to easily replace LaRoche since his scouts were high on Scott. Gold Glove praises for Thorman and said his bat would develop like LaRoche’s.

jS was getting old and knew window was ending. So I guess he said f it.

[Enscheff]

I think the final years could be rough, He's effectively signed through his 35 year old season, and for sure big men tend to age poorly. But I'm hoping Olson ages similar to Freemna, and is at least great through his 33 year old season.

We can at least do mental gymnastics with Freeman and say things like "contact oriented hitters age better, especially if they are decent athletes", but with Olson there's nothing like that we can say. He is the prototype for lumbering LHH slugger.

[NYCBrave]

We can at least do mental gymnastics with Freeman and say things like "contact oriented hitters age better, especially if they are decent athletes", but with Olson there's nothing like that we can say. He is the prototype for lumbering LHH slugger.

But it should also be noted that Olson's extension was essentially below market rate. Imagine what he would have got as a free agent after last year. In addition, the years he should be productive align with the contention window of the team. So I'm not sure AA is as concerned about 5 years out from now.

[cajunrevenge]

Also not a big fan of the Olson extension, but time will tell how he ages. I expect him to age like a typical bat only player, and it will be ugly. But hopefully I’m wrong.

I agree about Olson. Ideally I think we get two more food years out of him then trade him to one of the dumb teams but I don't think they will play it that way. Much rather have kept Freeman. I was skeptical of Olson at first but can't complain at the moment.

[thewupk]

But it should also be noted that Olson's extension was essentially below market rate. Imagine what he would have got as a free agent after last year. In addition, the years he should be productive align with the contention window of the team. So I'm not sure AA is as concerned about 5 years out from now.

Pretty much. My entire take on the extensions and signings is that AA should try to make this team as good as possible while Acuna is here. That's our window. If somehow we can extend Acuna out further then great but I'm going off the assumption that he goes somewhere else and gets a mega deal.

[zitothebrave]

Pretty much. My entire take on the extensions and signings is that AA should try to make this team as good as possible while Acuna is here. That's our window. If somehow we can extend Acuna out further then great but I'm going off the assumption that he goes somewhere else and gets a mega deal.

Every year we don't extend him further leveraging his current discount into future savings the probability of him staying goes down and down.

[mfree80]

Well, doing it when he talked about it this year, after the budget was already set would have been awkward.

Setting the stage by bringing it up now is pretty smart. I would bet that the conversation has started and we will hear something as soon as it is part of next year’s budget.

If not, that will be a huge statement about the future.

[Southcack77]

I think people who aren't in the spotlight find ways to undervalue even the biggest of achievements.

Winning 14 straight divisions in an amazing organizational feat and JS had a heavy hand in every one of them.

[striker42]

We can at least do mental gymnastics with Freeman and say things like "contact oriented hitters age better, especially if they are decent athletes", but with Olson there's nothing like that we can say. He is the prototype for lumbering LHH slugger.

My hope is for a Jim Thome like aging. It's not a great hope but at least there's a chance for a graceful aging.

[The Chosen One]

I don't think Olson becomes Chris Davis 2.0

He probably loses some homers. He will strike out more swinging. But maybe by then we have electronic strike zones and he'll trade off with more walks because he gets hosed a lot it seems on called strikes. I feel he has a lot better strikezone recognition than he gets credit for and just gets a lot of borderline balls called strikes against him more than other players.

I hope he ages like Mark Grace, just gonna be more strikeouts and walks than Grace. But Grace had a long long swing too just like Olson minus the raw power.

[zitothebrave]

I was tinkering around with his B-Ref comps, and they're a bit weird. His most similar comp through 29, is Mark McGwire who we won't get an accurate aging Comp because of roids. Next most comparable is Davis, but Davis only really compares for like 3 seasons. He has half the WAR Olson does through 29, Another Comp Richie Sexson has half the WAR, another Comp with similar WAR is McGriff, I don't see him aging as gracefully as McGriff did because Fred was smaller by a little bit and had much less of a K issue. next up is Cecil Fielder who you guessed it has half the WAR. To round out his top 10 you have McCovey, Mo Vaughn, Papi, Delgado, and Morneau. I'd take all those aging curves but Vaughns and Morneau who you'd guess it Olson has better production than. Papi is interesting because he didn't start getting good until 27.

But boy I"d be happy if he aged like Carlos Delgado, he didn't stink until he was 35. They have kind of similar careers through 29 Delgado was better of course, But if he could be a 5ish WAR player the next 2 years then a 3ish WAR player the 2 years after that I'd be happy. Then we oly have him on the hook for 1 year at a high price and an option and if he starts stinking like he probably should then he's gone.

[Nerfherders]

Imagine the daily griping in GDT's if Olson became a 3-WAR player.

[CyYoung31]

Imagine the daily griping in GDT's if Olson became a 3-WAR player.

AIDS might turn into ghonosyphitis.

[zitothebrave]

Imagine the daily griping in GDT's if Olson became a 3-WAR player.

No one would expect less from a 33/34 year old 1B. Last year 3 1B (or qualified enough) were 33-35. Freeman at 7.8 fWAR, Goldschmidt at 3.4 and LeMahieu at 1.3

Year before had 3 Goldschmidt at 6.9, Abreu at 3.8 and LeMahieu at 3.2

2021 had 3 Goldschmidt at 4.8, Abreu at 2.8, and Santana at -0.7

2019 had 3, Santana at 4.8, Gurriell at 4.0 and Votto at 0.8

Aside from MVP level seasons from Goldy and Freeman. Most are in the 3-4 range with a few stragglers though those seem to mainly be in the later part of that age group like santana in 2021, Votto in 2019 etc.

Expecting around 3 WAR from a 33-34 year old 1B is pretty good. In fact looking at a big picture of MLB 1B, since 2010, the league average 33-34 year old 1B has an average fWAR of 1.73 per 700 PA. Legends including Pujols, and great hitters like Teixeira struggled in that age group. Anyone who bitches about 3+ WAR from a 33 year old big man is a fool.