Now that 6 players have reached 100 PAs (Arcia is at 93 but that's close enough), let's take a look at how the main everyday hitters are doing in the first semi-meaningful sample size of the season.
Ozuna: .344/.416/.678, .338 BABIP, 10.9% BB, 15.8% K, .471 wOBA, .509 xwOBA
Simply put, Ozuna is destroying the ball, and it is all legit. For reasons unknown, his hard hit rate is a career high 55.4%, his line drive rate is a career high 27%, his average exit velocity is the highest it's been since 2020 at 92.5 mph, and he's striking out at a career low rate. This is 2020 Ozuna to start the year, and he is largely carrying the offense.
Arcia: .302/.333/.442, .347 BABIP, 4.3% BB, 16.1% K, .340 wOBA, .266 xwOBA
While everything Arcia has contributed so far counts in the W column, it has been propped up by some batted ball luck. When that BA regresses back towards its expected value of .224 the SLG and OPS will come right down with it. Arcia is pretty clearly a bottom of the order hitter, even if Dino-Snit mistakes him for a platoon #2 hitter...but that's a whole other discussion.
Acuna: .281/.407/.371, .375 BABIP, 14.8% BB, 22.2% K, .361 wOBA, .354 xwOBA
We all see it, and the results are all legit. That .090 ISO SLG is unfathomably low for Acuna, and it is almost entirely due to an equally unfathomable 20.0% fly ball rate coupled with an insanely high 23.1% infield fly rate. Acuna isn't hitting many balls in the air, and when he does, a quarter of them are on the infield. This is a worse version of the same issues when he came back from the knee injury in 2022, and the only logical conclusion is the knee isn't 100% right. Keep this in mind whenever someone starts talking about extending Acuna, or how awesome it is that he's such an amazing base stealer. Just don't bring up the idea of dialing things back to take pressure off the most valuable knee in the entire sport...folks get oddly sensitive about the idea.
Harris: .330/.363/.495, .397 BABIP, 4.9% BB, 20.6% K, .378 wOBA, .329 xwOBA
That .330 BA is a bit bloated by some BABIP luck, but Harris is pretty much the same guy he's been for 3 seasons now. I compared him to Adam Eaton when he first arrived, and that's close to how he's tracking. That BB rate just doesn't seem like it's going to improve, so he may just be a low BB hitter. I know it's sacrilege to question Dino-Snit, but if anyone was wondering who should be platooning at the top of the lineup with Albies vs RHP, the answer is Harris, and his .974 OPS vs RHP so far in 2024 is further proof. He and Albies should be platooned in the 2 or 3 spot, and the sooner Dino-Snit wakes up the sooner the offense will be even better.
Riley: .242/.314/.411, .318 BABIP, 7.6% BB, 25.7% K, .324 wOBA, .311 xwOBA
He used to be the most consistent hitter on the roster, but so far the SLG has been down in 2024. His fly ball rate is right where it should be at 41.2%, but the average exit velocity is down to 90.6 mph. That's where it was in 2020 when he was pretty bad and 2021 when a lucky .368 BABIP carried a .303 BA. I've been scared Riley is the next Dan Uggla for no real logical reason, and I hope we aren't seeing the beginning of that. Other than Acuna's knee, Riley's power is the most interesting thing to watch moving foward.
Olson: .216/.327/.432, .271 BABIP, 12.5% BB, 26.0% K, .334 wOBA, .367 xwOBA
First thing we need to realize is 2023 was Olson's career year, and it's all downhill for power goons as they enter their 30s. This contract will most likely age very poorly, but it's probably not sloping downwards too steeply just yet. Olson provides value in 2 ways: walks and homers. So when we see him with a 12.0% HR/FB rate we realize he's simply been a bit unlucky on a few flyballs, and if 3-4 more flew over the fence he'd be sitting right around his expected .250/.350/.500 line. He's still hitting ball hard and in the air, so it's just a matter of time before they start clearing the fence.
Reply With Quote
Originally Posted by Enscheff
