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Thread: was thethe right?

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    Expects Yuge Games nsacpi's Avatar
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    was thethe right?

    TAMPA, Fla.—Anthony Holmes was part of the great Florida migration. In 2021, he moved from Virginia to a gated suburban community in Tampa.

    Now that he has had to leave, Holmes is another victim of a glutted housing market where buyers are increasingly hard to find.

    He paid $550,000 for his five-bedroom home and spent another $50,000 on solar panels and interior improvements. When he had to move back to Virginia for work, Holmes expected to sell his house quickly. But since listing it in February, he has had no luck. He dropped the price five times to $583,900 and would be happy simply to break even.

    “I can’t unload the thing,” Holmes said. “In eight months, I’ve had zero offers. No one even showed up to the open houses. Nobody.”

    Across much of Florida and especially along the western coast, a surplus of inventory and dwindling buyer interest are slowing sales and keeping homes on the market longer. That is cooling off what had been one of America’s biggest housing booms this decade.

    Tropical storms and hurricanes, increasingly hitting the state’s western coast, are making matters worse.

    https://www.wsj.com/real-estate/flor...d=hp_lead_pos8
    "I am a victim, I will tell you. I am a victim."

    "I am your retribution."

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    Shift Leader thethe's Avatar
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    My friend and his wife bought a house on the west coast early 2021 during the STR peak thinking it would be a great investment. Now they just sold their NY house because they were making nothing in the house in Florida and couldn’t get offers below their purchase prices. Fortunately, the market on Long Island is ridiculous and they sold their current house for a profit but now they have to live in Florida when in comparison to New York is very bleak.

    Florida residents are ****ed right now and what will happen is large PE firms will buy up all the inventory.

    This isn’t RDS fault at all so before anyone says I’m taking that angle.

    Just stupid planning by “experts”.
    Natural Immunity Croc

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    People will be leaving Florida back to NY in droves. Especially if we can get a more moderate state government in place.
    Natural Immunity Croc

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    PE might be bailing out too. From the article:

    Another sign that the housing market is approaching an inflection point is that institutional investors—pinched by the same climbing insurance costs—are starting to sell. Many are eager to cash in on the huge increase in prices that many of these homes have seen since 2010 and are now pruning their Florida housing exposure.

    In Tampa, Orlando and Jacksonville, institutional portfolios of single-family homes account for nearly one in 20 listings over the past 60 days, according to an analysis by Parcl Labs. In all three markets, institutional operators own between 2% and 4% of the single-family homes and have been net sellers in those markets over the past 90 days.
    "I am a victim, I will tell you. I am a victim."

    "I am your retribution."

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    I think PE will still be the benefactors of a crashing market. Price points will still be too high for lower middle class with interest rates and a trash economy.

    Ultimately, Florida is just not a destination spot for young professionals and young families despite how well its governed. Its simply unbearable June-September.

    Its a tourist spot and a destination for old people.
    Natural Immunity Croc

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    Expects Yuge Games nsacpi's Avatar
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    Florida has a lot of young people and families. But it also has a long history of boom-bust.
    "I am a victim, I will tell you. I am a victim."

    "I am your retribution."

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    Quote Originally Posted by nsacpi View Post
    Florida has a lot of young people and families. But it also has a long history of boom-bust.
    Every place in the country has this so this isn't a big reveal.

    Its just not a destination if you weren't born into the state.

    Nobody says - When I make it I'm moving to Florida.
    Natural Immunity Croc

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    Quote Originally Posted by nsacpi View Post
    Florida has a lot of young people and families. But it also has a long history of boom-bust.
    Every place in the country has this so this isn't a big reveal.

    Its just not a destination if you weren't born into the state.

    Nobody says - When I make it I'm moving to Florida.
    Natural Immunity Croc

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    If someone wants to make the case that Florida needed stricter state regulations on building homes, I’ll happily engage.

    Otherwise, I express my sincerest condolences to Mr. Holmes that he wasn’t able to turn a profit on his home he bought 3 years ago.

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    Quote Originally Posted by chop2chip View Post
    If someone wants to make the case that Florida needed stricter state regulations on building homes, I’ll happily engage.

    Otherwise, I express my sincerest condolences to Mr. Holmes that he wasn’t able to turn a profit on his home he bought 3 years ago.
    Yeah i don't see this as anything to write home about. The house might be ugly AF. Lot of factors including location. Frankly, women don't want houses with large solar panels covering half the roof. Its an eyesore.

    I don't see this as anything but normal real estate markets.
    Ivermectin Man

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    Quote Originally Posted by thethe View Post
    Every place in the country has this so this isn't a big reveal.

    Its just not a destination if you weren't born into the state.

    Nobody says - When I make it I'm moving to Florida.
    Literally millions of people go to vacation there every year to fish, golf, and beach it. You can do so 280 days a year if not more.

    Nobody says when i make it, I'm moving to Long Island, or new jersey, or new york.

    Most people want to go there and have ocean and golf access all year round and people tougher than you simply deal with the climate (like old people)
    Last edited by Tapate50; 10-07-2024 at 09:17 AM.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Tapate50 View Post
    Yeah i don't see this as anything to write home about. The house might be ugly AF. Lot of factors including location. Frankly, women don't want houses with large solar panels covering half the roof. Its an eyesore.

    I don't see this as anything but normal real estate markets.
    There’s also this part

    Mortgage rates:
    2021 2.65%
    Today 6.2%

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    Quote Originally Posted by chop2chip View Post
    There’s also this part

    Mortgage rates:
    2021 2.65%
    Today 6.2%
    For sure- along with other costs skyrocketing because of inflation, the mortgage is likely almost another 1k over what it was back then. Affordability has been put to the TEST.
    Ivermectin Man

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    Quote Originally Posted by Tapate50 View Post
    Literally millions of people go to vacation there every year to fish, golf, and beach it. You can do so 280 days a year if not more.

    Nobody says when i make it, I'm moving to Long Island, or new jersey, or new york.

    Most people want to go there and have ocean and golf access all year round and people tougher than you simply deal with the climate (like old people)
    I mentioned its a big time tourist spot.

    And lots of people say when they make it they'll move to NY (before the most recent awful governnace but thats going to chagne sooner rather than later).

    While I have awful bias towards Jersey it is absolutely gorgeous and remains a big draw for families.

    Long Island has been and will always be a massive draw for families. One of the greatest places to live in the whole country if you have the money.
    Last edited by thethe; 10-07-2024 at 09:27 AM.
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    Quote Originally Posted by chop2chip View Post
    There’s also this part

    Mortgage rates:
    2021 2.65%
    Today 6.2%
    And yet - NY market is still going strong.
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    Quote Originally Posted by thethe View Post
    And yet - NY market is still going strong.
    What year should we begin on the X-axis when we compare FL vs NY

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    The hurricanes alone will keep me away from Florida.

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    Quote Originally Posted by chop2chip View Post
    What year should we begin on the X-axis when we compare FL vs NY
    You can do it for however long you want - There was a massive miscalculation that pandemic inspired migration would be a new normal.

    It will play out as such.

    NY is still one of the best places to live in the world and this is inspite of awful governing.

    Florida gets a bump because of amazing governing but then people remember...It's Florida.
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    Quote Originally Posted by thethe View Post
    You can do it for however long you want - There was a massive miscalculation that pandemic inspired migration would be a new normal.

    It will play out as such.

    NY is still one of the best places to live in the world and this is inspite of awful governing.

    Florida gets a bump because of amazing governing but then people remember...It's Florida.
    I like NY. Lived there for 6 months. My wife travels there to work twice a year. Great culture. Amazing food.

    I never argued for Florida/Texas based on environmental factors. It was always based on governance.

    Besides, I would take Utah (red nazis) or Colorado (blue commies) over the rest the country if we are talking total package.

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    Quote Originally Posted by thethe View Post
    I mentioned its a big time tourist spot.

    And lots of people say when they make it they'll move to NY (before the most recent awful governnace but thats going to chagne sooner rather than later).

    While I have awful bias towards Jersey it is absolutely gorgeous and remains a big draw for families.

    Long Island has been and will always be a massive draw for families. One of the greatest places to live in the whole country if you have the money.
    Like who ?

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