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Thread: Offseason Hot Stove 2024-25 Thread

  1. #2661
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    I think the Dodgers are gonna get Cooper Kupp too. Damn.

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    From one of the beloved "insiders" with at least a screenshot attached. https://x.com/boydpc15/status/1886756174533361685

    And a comment on the Cease trade talks:

    "The prospects discussed were 3 between #10-#30 plus Kelenic, but as talks went on, Padres doubled down and started asking for stronger prospects. They were also talking with 3 other clubs and basically using each one against the other to up package; that's when Braves backed out."

    "Do you know any of the prospects' names that were locked in to the deal?"

    "None were given that were locked to me, but Padres at one point had moved to Ritchie and Waldrep then even an ask for Schwelly."

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    I'm sure that's when the talks ended was if Schwellenbachs name came up. He's worth way more than Cease is. I still think they get something worked out.

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    3 guys in the 10-30 range plus Kelenic is an easy yes for Cease. Waldrep plus Kelenic is an easy yes for Cease. Schwelly is an obvious no, but it seems like the pretend talks were at least reasonable.

    A trade for Lopez could be pretty painful.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Enscheff View Post
    3 guys in the 10-30 range plus Kelenic is an easy yes for Cease. Waldrep plus Kelenic is an easy yes for Cease. Schwelly is an obvious no, but it seems like the pretend talks were at least reasonable.

    A trade for Lopez could be pretty painful.
    I think it all comes down to money honestly. AA just doesn't have it to spend bc of the tax. The Twins would have to kick in money this year for sure and that would make the prospect haul even more so I have no idea what direction he'll go but it'll be a SP making no more than 14 million this year.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Enscheff View Post
    3 guys in the 10-30 range plus Kelenic is an easy yes for Cease. Waldrep plus Kelenic is an easy yes for Cease. Schwelly is an obvious no, but it seems like the pretend talks were at least reasonable.

    A trade for Lopez could be pretty painful.
    Shouldn't Lopez and Cease have pretty similar value? Lopez' contract, while slightly below market value, still isn't super team friendly for a 3 WAR pitcher.

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    Our old pal Laureano to the Orioles on a one-year, $4M deal.

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    Lopez seems like a pretty similar pitcher to Charlie when he came to Atlanta. And he's getting paid roughly what we paid Charlie. That's pretty good value for the money, but not someone I'm gonna give up a major prospect of group of good prospects for.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Carp View Post
    Shouldn't Lopez and Cease have pretty similar value? Lopez' contract, while slightly below market value, still isn't super team friendly for a 3 WAR pitcher.
    I think the difference is whether the Braves could have extended Cease. Lopez is more consistent than Cease (but doesn't have Cease's ceiling) but the team would have Lopez until the 2027 season. Without an extension, Cease is likely a rental.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Carp View Post
    Lopez seems like a pretty similar pitcher to Charlie when he came to Atlanta. And he's getting paid roughly what we paid Charlie. That's pretty good value for the money, but not someone I'm gonna give up a major prospect of group of good prospects for.
    Lopez is 29 compared to 37 when Morton came though.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Carp View Post
    Shouldn't Lopez and Cease have pretty similar value? Lopez' contract, while slightly below market value, still isn't super team friendly for a 3 WAR pitcher.
    A lot of his value comes from the 3 years he is controlled, and his age.

    These 3-4 win SPs typically hit FA ahead of their age 30-31 season, and then typically sign for something like $20M over 4-5 years for a total of $80M-$100M. Those 4-5 years typically cover 2-3 prime years and 2-3 decline years.

    Lopez is signed for $66M covering his age 29-31 seasons, so a team will be suffering through little or no decline years. If he were a FA right now entering his age 29 season he would be getting 7 year offers for well over $150M. Offering him 3/66 wouldn't even get a call back from his agent. The team who signed him for 7 years would then be stuck paying 35 year old Lopez $25M to be a #4/5 at best.

    3 years of prime Lopez with none of the decline years is worth at least as much as 1 year of Cease. If AA need the Twins to kick in cash it will sting even more.
    Last edited by Enscheff; 02-04-2025 at 05:01 PM.

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    Quote Originally Posted by 50PoundHead View Post
    I think the difference is whether the Braves could have extended Cease. Lopez is more consistent than Cease (but doesn't have Cease's ceiling) but the team would have Lopez until the 2027 season. Without an extension, Cease is likely a rental.
    Not sure I agree on the ceiling being different. And Cease is going to get a lot more over a lot more years.
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    I’d way prefer López over Cease, and have said it for a while.
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    Quote Originally Posted by jpx7 View Post
    I’d way prefer López over Cease, and have said it for a while.
    I would like Castillo from the Mariners. But we'd have to come up with a deal that didn't include Kelenic, they had enough of his **** out there.

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    Quote Originally Posted by jpx7 View Post
    I’d way prefer López over Cease, and have said it for a while.
    Problem is you’d have to give up way more for Lopez. Despite what Preller thinks
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    Quote Originally Posted by Super View Post
    Not sure I agree on the ceiling being different. And Cease is going to get a lot more over a lot more years.
    Cease has a couple of great years and a couple of meh years. Lopez is more consistent. That led to my ceiliing comment.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Super View Post
    Problem is you’d have to give up way more for Lopez. Despite what Preller thinks
    More, yes, but I’m not sure “way more”—depends on if you value López closer to 3 or closer to 4 fwar per annum.
    "For all his tattooings he was on the whole a clean, comely looking cannibal."

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    Minnesota was rumored to be after Cease a few weeks ago so they may not be interested in selling.

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    Cubs get Brasier.

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    There's really no defending AA this offseason. Even if you give him the excuse of resetting the luxury tax, he created the issue by long extensions and trading for Murphy. If this season turns out crap, it's on AA.

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