Since no one is making a new thread for election day here it is. We likely wont know a winner tonight. And winning is only half the battle now. Lets try to keep the propaganda and bickering to other threads.
Since no one is making a new thread for election day here it is. We likely wont know a winner tonight. And winning is only half the battle now. Lets try to keep the propaganda and bickering to other threads.
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I think there's an outside chance Penn and less likely chance Wisconsin can rally to get it done in time.
Ivermectin Man
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com...tion-forecast/
538 final prediction is a 50/50 split. Technically 50 Kamala 49 Trump and 1 no winner but if no one get 270 I think Trump prevails so its 50/50 imo.
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“If I lose an election, if it’s a fair election, I’m going to be the first one to acknowledge it, and I think it’s — well, so far, I think it’s been fair.”
Trump says the election so far has been fair.
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We know you will keep us posted. Thank you so much for standing on that wall.Originally Posted by cajunrevenge
Ivermectin Man
Quick look at some early indicators.
In Arizona Reps have a 42-33 advantage in registered voters mail in and early votes despite only 5% advantage in mail in voting registrations. A quarter of voters are Independents so Kamala is going to need to win them by a mile unless she gets an usually high amount of crossover votes. Former McCain voters and with abortion being a big issue I could see it happening but even then it would be super close. State heavily leaning Trump imo. Only a 5 point advantage in female voters aint gonna cut it for Kamala imo. 2.18 million votes cast so far. 3.3 million voted in 2020. But there was that same amount of mail in ballots requested so voting pool could have gone up a couple hundred thousand.
Georgia has a ridiculous amount of only 340k mail in votes. No reason for that in the modern day. Reps have a 48/45 advantage in registered voters so far. Thats with 4 million mail in and early voting cast. In 2020 there were 5 million votes so potentially another million incoming. 56/44 gender gap in favor of women bodes well for Kamal if that holds despite the disadvantage in registrations.
In Nevada they had 1.4 million votes in 2020 and have 1.9 million mail in ballots so I guess they just send them to everyone. 1.1 million votes already cast split 50/50 mail in and early voting. Gender gap is even but theres 12% unknown so who knows. Reps a slight advantage in votes by party registration but 1/4th of voters are independents so still anyones ballgame there.
In Michigan theres been 3.3 votes by mail in and early voting. Its tied 44/44 in party registration despite Dems having a 10 point advantage in mail in ballots. Gender gap is 55/45 in favor of women. There was 5.5 million votes in 2020 so potentially more than 2.2 million votes left. By my math theres about 330 k mail in ballots left to be received as 63% of votes right now are mail in and 37% early voting.
In North Carolina everything's just evenly split Rep/Dem/Independent. 4.75 million votes already cast. Just under 5.6 million votes in 2020. The Libertarian candidate got 170k votes and the Constitution Party another 67k in 2020. In such a close state I have to think the third party numbers shrink to atleast 150k if not 100k. Thats a lot of potential swing voters. Another strong 55/45 gender gap in favor of women again. Bodes well for Kamala imo.
Wisconsin has 1.5 million mail in and early votes so far. Had 3.3 million votes in 2020. Its 34/25 in dems favor in party registration. A whopping 41% as independent. Gender gap is only 50-43 which doesnt look big enough for Kamala. Still 1.1 million mail in ballots left out there. Results right now are heavily early voting numbers.
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North Carolina head of the State Board of Elections says they should have 98% of votes counted by 1 am tonight. With the rest taking a little longer. I think its going to be so close we wont even know the winner with 98% counted.
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What time do we expect Trumps premature victory speech tonight? 10 PM?
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Googliani showed up to vote in the Mercedes he was ordered to hand over to the election workers. Hope you enjoyed the ride Rudy. And I hope they get that thing steam cleaned on the inside.
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And the first polls close. Lets get this show on the road.
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Foxnews saying Harris running good bit behind Biden in 2020
And the first state is called. Indiana for Trump. Scoreboard is 11-0 for Trump.
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Kentucky and West Virginia called for Trump. Vermont for Kamala. So we are at Trump 23 Kamala 3.
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So far among black voters Trump has picked up 1% and Kamal has lost 2% in Georgia. 2020 it was an 88-11 split not its a 86-12 split.
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Polls closing in PA. And Florida-OK-MO-TN-AL-SC-MS projected for Trump. MA-RI-MD-CT for Kamala. Now sitting at 95 Trump 35 Kamala.
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NJ projected for Kamala. AK for Trump. Now 101 Trump 52 Kamala.
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NC almost event split at 400k votes a piece. A lot of those Trump voters not voting for the self described black Nazi for Governor though. Stein up 13% from a voter pool thats 50/50 Trump and Kamala.
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Deleware and Illinois called for Kamala. Now 101 Trump to 71 Kamala.
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Trump doing very well in VA with 40% voting. I don't think he wins VA, but if he does, election is over before midnight.
Kamala’s path seems to be to hold serve where she’s expected to win and win PA, Wisconsin and Michigan. Not a lot of margin of error
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