It appears AA has found the Curaçao Cure. Albies goes big this year. Slumps next year but Profar picks him up next year.Originally Posted by msstate7
It appears AA has found the Curaçao Cure. Albies goes big this year. Slumps next year but Profar picks him up next year.
Forever Fredi
You literally just posted several seasons where he was below average. A player who is 10%-15% below average offensively and a negative defensively in LF is almost unplayable for a contending team.
Yes, Profar has upside. Yes, there is a very good chance AA picked up a 3 win player for cheap.
But let’s stop acting like there’s no risk here because it’s nothing but illogical homerism. The very real risk is Profar can’t maintain his new swing and posts a 0 win season that makes him just as terrible as Kelenic was.
I’d actually give this signing a B. I agree that AA shouldn’t be given accolades for giving out what is considered to be a market contract for a player like Profar. I will, however, point out a few things which make me elevate this grade from average (C) to above average.
Profar as a hitter has always been able to make contact. That high contact rate stayed consistent last year (around 80-81%) but what changed is the quality of his contact. Being a Punch and Judy hitter is worthless (or at least not worth what he’s being paid). However he went from his previous high 34% hard hit rate in 2022 to a 44% in 2024- he clearly barreled the ball at a much higher clip last year than ever before- all while maintaining his 11-12% walk rate. A 10% differential for HHH is statistically significant and more likely the result of swing changes than a smaller increase which could be explained within normal annual statistical fluctuations).
I trust our FO if they believe his leg kick and more upright stance (and flatter swing path) means those rate stats are sustainable. Even if he’s a smidge less of a hitter in 2025, he’s still worth the contract and even more so considering the state of our OF to start the year and the potential for Acuna’s defensive decline. Not saying there isn’t the chance he could be a dud and basically have zero value - there is that risk- but I think there’s more of a probability that he’s a 2-3+ WAR player than the total dud scenario.
We had this exact discussion last year when everyone grossly overestimated Kelenic’s floor as an average OFer, and I stated his actual floor was unplayably bad. It was a solid gamble to take, but the downside was most certainly not a 2 win player.
It seems most fans never learn.
Not sure if this is directed at me, but I’ve never been overly optimistic or rosy- I look at facts. Assuming it was to me, find a single post where I was optimistic about Kelenic. I wasn’t high on that trade. And I said Profar’s floor is 0 or worse- yes it could be bad. All I’m saying is that that much of a change in 24 more likely than not points to some sort of tangible improvement rather than a statistical aberration. Who knows if it’d sustainable or if that’s a 1 or 2 WAR player - maybe less, maybe more - but I think it was worth rolling the dice in this instance. That’s all I’m saying.
Ivermectin Man
Looks like I hit my limit on free articles there. I had no clue Fangraphs went to a subscriber model, that's a bummer.
Maybe Profar can teach Arcia and Kelenic what Tatis' dad taught him.
Last edited by Carp; 01-27-2025 at 11:48 AM.
Key points from the FG article:
Do you think big leaguers can fluke their way to one great season like that? To quote Brent Rooker, “No they can’t.” The vast majority of players could not produce a 139 wRC+ over a full season even as their 95th-percentile outcome. Even fewer could back that up with equally impressive underlying metrics. Indeed, the 2024 version of Profar combined his keen eye at the plate (11.4% walk rate, 90th-percentile chase rate) and excellent bat-to-ball skills (90th-percentile whiff rate) with newfound strength
Even better, this new version of Profar was consistently productive. He had only one month, August, in which his wRC+ was below 130, and even then, it was still a respectable 102. Meanwhile, his xwOBA in August, also a season low, was still a healthy .337. If that were his full-season number, it would have ranked in the 74th percentile. Sticking with the theme of consistency, Profar hit almost as well from both sides of the plate, posting a 137 wRC+ as a lefty facing righties and a 147 wRC+ as a righty facing lefties. What’s more, he outperformed the league-average wOBA and xwOBA against all three pitch types: fastballs, breaking balls, and offspeed pitches
Simply put, hitting the ball that hard that consistently without sacrificing contact or discipline for pull rate isn’t something a hitter just does by accident. Sure, outlier seasons happen. We’ve all seen hitters’ exit velocities spike one season only to drop back down the next. Yet, as far as massive, unexpected quality-of-contact improvements go, this one is about as believable as they come.
What I was trying to explain, but in much better words. Hence the B grade.
That write up is better than anything I have gotten at Honey Baked.
It will be interesting to see how twit uses Kelenic when Acuna comes back.. Could we possibly see Profar move around some to give other guys days off and let kelenic play LF when that happens.
Coppy
Tapate50 (01-27-2025)
This seems like a make or break opportunity for Kelenic. He is going to get a big chance while Acuña is out. If he performs, he will still have a job. If not, they will look for an opportunity to dump him.
It was directed at the board/fans in general, or I would have quoted you.
I also 100% agree the Profar gamble is a solid one, just as I agreed the Kelenic gamble was a solid one. However, I'm contradicting the "his floor is an average bat" narrative fans are saying now in their euphoria over actually seeing a FA signing. It's not just being said here, but I don't bother posting anywhere else, so this is where I contradict the narrative I see.
Just like with Kelenic, the floor is unplayable, and we should be judging the contract with that in mind. If he does end up turning into a 0-1 win player...that's going to be rough for 3 years. At least Kelenic was a 1 time expenditure that could be dumped at any time. Profar is going to be here throwing sunflower seeds at Albies for 3 years no matter what he does or doesn't do.
Every single FA prediction had him earning $45M, and every single one of them made that prediction knowing full well the upside play he would be. That's why he was predicted to earn $45M. It's not like AA was some mastermind who realized Profar has all-star upside. That's why it was a C trade...he paid exactly what everyone thought he was worth. Nothing creative. Nothing extraordinary. He went to the store and paid retail price for a middling option. Any GM in professional sports can do that.
Last edited by Enscheff; 01-27-2025 at 12:14 PM.
that is worth 5 million now a days.. so Braves are only out 10 at that point... silver linings man.. you got to find them sometimes..
Coppy
Posting Permissions
Reply With Quote